Franco's rebellion fails

Would a Nationalist defeat have meant an immediate end to the Spanish Civil War? On the Republican side there were so many different political factions united only by the war against Nationalists. Once they're defeated I think there would have been a struggle for power within the Republican side that might have continued for months.
 
The Republican government would have to contend with Anarchist revolutions all over the place. The outcome of that conflict is kinda difficult to speculate on but the odds would be in the Republican Government's favor (especially if the PSOE and other Marxist parties consolidate state power around themselves and get Uncle Joseph to back them up).
 
Would a Nationalist defeat have meant an immediate end to the Spanish Civil War? On the Republican side there were so many different political factions united only by the war against Nationalists. Once they're defeated I think there would have been a struggle for power within the Republican side that might have continued for months.

It sort of depends on the timeline here but by 1937, the Soviet backed government of Juan Negrín y López and his PSOE party had already struck against the anarchists and independent trade unions. The Trotskyist POUM and the anarchist CNT in particular were attacked through police raids and street fighting in Barcelona (where they were the most strong.)

Depending on how the war goes, Negrín could easily use his reformed Popular Army, Assault Guards, and the weakening of the Trade-Union Militias to his advantage. I don’t think after early stages of the war the Anarchists really had a chance in surviving government repression due to foreign support and internal reaction against the trade unions.

In short, I think a Republican victory in the Spanish Civil War will see a moderate and compromising Social-Democrat regime under the PSOE that reverses much of the social revolution from the early stages of the war. The support from Stalin could lead them in interesting ways though if the Second World War remains the same.
 
It sort of depends on the timeline here but by 1937, the Soviet backed government of Juan Negrín y López and his PSOE party had already struck against the anarchists and independent trade unions. The Trotskyist POUM and the anarchist CNT in particular were attacked through police raids and street fighting in Barcelona (where they were the most strong.)

Depending on how the war goes, Negrín could easily use his reformed Popular Army, Assault Guards, and the weakening of the Trade-Union Militias to his advantage. I don’t think after early stages of the war the Anarchists really had a chance in surviving government repression due to foreign support and internal reaction against the trade unions.

In short, I think a Republican victory in the Spanish Civil War will see a moderate and compromising Social-Democrat regime under the PSOE that reverses much of the social revolution from the early stages of the war. The support from Stalin could lead them in interesting ways though if the Second World War remains the same.

David T has already proved that the POUM was not Trotskyist, it was Bukharinist.
 
David T has already proved that the POUM was not Trotskyist, it was Bukharinist.

As I understand it, the POUM was a combination of the Bloque Obrero y Campesino and the Izquierda Comunista de España. The former of which was can be considered Bukharinist in that it’s on the right opposition and the latter of which was affiliated with Trotsky. The POUM was largely a bloc of Opposition to Stalinism and so it wasn’t conclusively Trotskyist or Bukharinist, it was a collection of both groups.

I’m not familiar with David T though, could you link me to his argument.
 
As I understand it, the POUM was a combination of the Bloque Obrero y Campesino and the Izquierda Comunista de España. The former of which was can be considered Bukharinist in that it’s on the right opposition and the latter of which was affiliated with Trotsky. The POUM was largely a bloc of Opposition to Stalinism and so it wasn’t conclusively Trotskyist or Bukharinist, it was a collection of both groups.

I’m not familiar with David T though, could you link me to his argument.

Read https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...nish-civil-war-possible.462869/#post-18528459, the Bloque Obrero y Campesino was much bigger than the Izquierda Comunista de España. Trotsky was critical of the POUM.
 
The republican navy says Hi

The Republican navy had some efficiency problems because most high ranking navy officers supported the rebellion but most low ranking officers didn't, quickly realized what was going on and arrested their superiors. Without most high ranking officers, the navy had efficiency problems.
 
I forgot to mention that they will receive help as in OTL.
If Italy goes for a Taiwan in Morocco whatever ships they have will be withdrawn when World War 2 starts

The Republican navy had some efficiency problems because most high ranking navy officers supported the rebellion but most low ranking officers didn't, quickly realized what was going on and arrested their superiors. Without most high ranking officers, the navy had efficiency problems.
They can train new ranking officers and not to mention it's just a matter sailing as nationalists won't have navy.
 

Deleted member 1487

Would a Nationalist defeat have meant an immediate end to the Spanish Civil War? On the Republican side there were so many different political factions united only by the war against Nationalists. Once they're defeated I think there would have been a struggle for power within the Republican side that might have continued for months.
Depends on when the victory happened; the Soviet backed faction had pretty much secured control due to assassinations by the NKVD by 1938. Likely even if the Republicans win the Soviets will ensure their favored faction wins the peace through similar wet-work operations. Then the question is what does a Soviet backed Republican regime look like in the aftermath, especially with the Soviets keeping the Spanish gold reserves. I'd imagine there would be a large exodus of Nationalists after the war, either to the colonies where they set up a separatist regime or to friendly Fascist areas. Which then means if/when WW2 happens ITTL Spain probably gets invaded by the Axis and exiled Nationalists come back with them to set up the new regime.
 
Depends on when the victory happened; the Soviet backed faction had pretty much secured control due to assassinations by the NKVD by 1938. Likely even if the Republicans win the Soviets will ensure their favored faction wins the peace through similar wet-work operations. Then the question is what does a Soviet backed Republican regime look like in the aftermath, especially with the Soviets keeping the Spanish gold reserves. I'd imagine there would be a large exodus of Nationalists after the war, either to the colonies where they set up a separatist regime or to friendly Fascist areas. Which then means if/when WW2 happens ITTL Spain probably gets invaded by the Axis and exiled Nationalists come back with them to set up the new regime.

Italy might open itself up to refugees, particularly those who the military experience of fighting in the Civil War. Several Blue Legions fighting in the Italian military structure, particularly if they have officers (likely) who can help refine he broader Italian tactical doctrine from experience, could help blunt some of the incompetence of early war preformance.
 

Deleted member 1487

Italy might open itself up to refugees, particularly those who the military experience of fighting in the Civil War. Several Blue Legions fighting in the Italian military structure, particularly if they have officers (likely) who can help refine he broader Italian tactical doctrine from experience, could help blunt some of the incompetence of early war preformance.
Doubtful it would help Italy, they sent the biggest contingent of foreign military help IOTL (something like 500% more men than Germany) and their experience didn't yield the Italian army much other than expense:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corpo_Truppe_Volontarie#Aftermath
On 1 April 1939, the success of the Nationalists meant that the Italians now had a friendly regime in the western Mediterranean. But they acquired this friend at a high cost in both men and materials. Of the approximate 78,500 men sent to Spain, 2,989-3,819 were killed and about 12,000 (10,629) were wounded. Those casualties were mostly caused during the Catalan and Aragonese Offensives, about 44% of the deaths and 43% of the wounded, and the rest during the Guadalajara, Santanderand Levante offensives.[3] The Italian military left behind roughly 3,400 machine guns, 1,400 mortars, 1,800 artillery pieces, 6,800 vehicles, 160 tanks, and 760 aircraft. But, while the military equipment represented a loss to Italy's war inventory, most of the equipment was obsolete. The financial cost of the war was more debilitating. The cost of the CTV to Italy amounted to between 6 and 8.5 billion lire. At 14 to 20 percent of annual expenditure, this represented an immense drain on the Italian economy. The high cost of Mussolini's Spanish adventure severely handicapped Italy in the period leading up to World War II.[4]

Now if the Nationalists lose before Italy spends the majority of it's OTL investment in the war, then it would probably help Italy quite a bit vs. OTL.
 
As I understand it, the POUM was a combination of the Bloque Obrero y Campesino and the Izquierda Comunista de España. The former of which was can be considered Bukharinist in that it’s on the right opposition and the latter of which was affiliated with Trotsky. The POUM was largely a bloc of Opposition to Stalinism and so it wasn’t conclusively Trotskyist or Bukharinist, it was a collection of both groups.

I’m not familiar with David T though, could you link me to his argument.

I didn't actually say that POUM was Bukharinist--although more of its members came from the BOC than the ICE, it is even doubtful whether there was such a thing as "Bukharinism" by 1936. What I said was that it was not Troskyist, and that Trotsky was constantly quarreling even (or especially!) with the ex-Troskyists in it. For my posts on it, see

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...deology-like-trotskyism.464713/#post-18683833

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...nish-civil-war-possible.462869/#post-18528459
 
I didn't actually say that POUM was Bukharinist--although more of its members came from the BOC than the ICE, it is even doubtful whether there was such a thing as "Bukharinism" by 1936. What I said was that it was not Troskyist, and that Trotsky was constantly quarreling even (or especially!) with the ex-Troskyists in it. For my posts on it, see

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...deology-like-trotskyism.464713/#post-18683833

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...nish-civil-war-possible.462869/#post-18528459

Sorry for misinterpreting your post. Bukharinist is a wrong term but you do show that the POUM was not Trotskyist and was more influenced by Bukharin. But, I ask you: If Bukharin's ideas had already converged with Stalin's, why did the PCE still attack the POUM?
 
I didn't actually say that POUM was Bukharinist--although more of its members came from the BOC than the ICE, it is even doubtful whether there was such a thing as "Bukharinism" by 1936. What I said was that it was not Troskyist, and that Trotsky was constantly quarreling even (or especially!) with the ex-Troskyists in it. For my posts on it, see

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...deology-like-trotskyism.464713/#post-18683833

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...nish-civil-war-possible.462869/#post-18528459

It was an excellent read through! As someone checking out Isaac Deutscher’s Prophet series on the life of Trotsky, I’ll keep this in my back pocket once I hit the later parts of his life. You seems pretty knowledgeable on the Spanish Civil War, do you have any suggested reading on the war? I just finished Homage to Catalonia and I’d love to know a bit more.
 
Sorry for misinterpreting your post. Bukharinist is a wrong term but you do show that the POUM was not Trotskyist and was more influenced by Bukharin. But, I ask you: If Bukharin's ideas had already converged with Stalin's, why did the PCE still attack the POUM?

Well, in the first place, Stalin always believed--or professed to believe--that the "Rightists" and Trotskyists were in league against him, the 1928 meeting of Bukharin with Kamenev being the "proof." (Basically, what Stalin was doing here was not so much inventing a danger as treating a potential danger as if it were a present one. The ex-Oppositionists were no danger to him now, but who could be sure if the Party would not turn to them if, say, the USSR suffered some catastrophic defeat in war?...) Second, the POUM leaders, whether from BOC or ICE, whatever their disagreements with Trotsky, regarded him as a great revolutionary and the Moscow trials as frame-ups. That was more than enough to make them "Trotsky-fascists" in Stalinist eyes. Finally, the Stalinists wanted to destroy all their "leftist" opponents in Spain (as elsewhere), and they started with the POUM because it was a weaker and therefore easier target than the anarcho-syndicalists or the left-wing (Largo Caballero) Socialists.

One should note that not only Trotskyists but many people in what remained of the world "right opposition" in the mid-1930's objected to the idea of the Popular Front. They were all in favor of a United Front with the Socialists bur drew the line with inclusion of "bourgeois" parties like the French Radicals. As Jay Lovestone wrote in The People's Front Illusion: From "Social Fascism" to the "People's Front": "In the days of the 'Third Period' and social fascism, in the ultra-left days of 'class against class', the French Socialist Party (SFIO) was held to be so bad that the Comintern could see no difference between this Socialist Party of Blum and the Radical Party of Herriot. Then the French Socialist Party was a 'bourgeois party'. Today, in the ultra-right period, in the days of the 'people against the two hundred families', the Radical Party has become so good that the Comintern can again see no difference between the Radical Party of Daladier and the Socialist Party." https://www.marxists.org/archive/lovestone/peoples-front.pdf The POUM did participate in the Popular Front in Spain in 1936 but viewed it solely as a temporary alliance for electoral purposes and announced its withdrawal from the Popular Front soon after the elections. Trotsky viewed even this limited support for the Popular Front as "class collaboration" and "betrayal"--but the alternative would have been the POUM totally isolating itself from the Spanish working class (even the Anarchists gave up their traditional objection to participation in elections, because a Popular Front victory was the only way to get amnesty for political prisoners).
 
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