Would a Nationalist defeat have meant an immediate end to the Spanish Civil War? On the Republican side there were so many different political factions united only by the war against Nationalists. Once they're defeated I think there would have been a struggle for power within the Republican side that might have continued for months.
The republican navy says HiNationalists regroup in the colonies à la Kuomintang.
It sort of depends on the timeline here but by 1937, the Soviet backed government of Juan Negrín y López and his PSOE party had already struck against the anarchists and independent trade unions. The Trotskyist POUM and the anarchist CNT in particular were attacked through police raids and street fighting in Barcelona (where they were the most strong.)
Depending on how the war goes, Negrín could easily use his reformed Popular Army, Assault Guards, and the weakening of the Trade-Union Militias to his advantage. I don’t think after early stages of the war the Anarchists really had a chance in surviving government repression due to foreign support and internal reaction against the trade unions.
In short, I think a Republican victory in the Spanish Civil War will see a moderate and compromising Social-Democrat regime under the PSOE that reverses much of the social revolution from the early stages of the war. The support from Stalin could lead them in interesting ways though if the Second World War remains the same.
David T has already proved that the POUM was not Trotskyist, it was Bukharinist.
The republican navy says Hi
As I understand it, the POUM was a combination of the Bloque Obrero y Campesino and the Izquierda Comunista de España. The former of which was can be considered Bukharinist in that it’s on the right opposition and the latter of which was affiliated with Trotsky. The POUM was largely a bloc of Opposition to Stalinism and so it wasn’t conclusively Trotskyist or Bukharinist, it was a collection of both groups.
I’m not familiar with David T though, could you link me to his argument.
The republican navy says Hi
If Italy goes for a Taiwan in Morocco whatever ships they have will be withdrawn when World War 2 startsI forgot to mention that they will receive help as in OTL.
They can train new ranking officers and not to mention it's just a matter sailing as nationalists won't have navy.The Republican navy had some efficiency problems because most high ranking navy officers supported the rebellion but most low ranking officers didn't, quickly realized what was going on and arrested their superiors. Without most high ranking officers, the navy had efficiency problems.
Depends on when the victory happened; the Soviet backed faction had pretty much secured control due to assassinations by the NKVD by 1938. Likely even if the Republicans win the Soviets will ensure their favored faction wins the peace through similar wet-work operations. Then the question is what does a Soviet backed Republican regime look like in the aftermath, especially with the Soviets keeping the Spanish gold reserves. I'd imagine there would be a large exodus of Nationalists after the war, either to the colonies where they set up a separatist regime or to friendly Fascist areas. Which then means if/when WW2 happens ITTL Spain probably gets invaded by the Axis and exiled Nationalists come back with them to set up the new regime.Would a Nationalist defeat have meant an immediate end to the Spanish Civil War? On the Republican side there were so many different political factions united only by the war against Nationalists. Once they're defeated I think there would have been a struggle for power within the Republican side that might have continued for months.
Depends on when the victory happened; the Soviet backed faction had pretty much secured control due to assassinations by the NKVD by 1938. Likely even if the Republicans win the Soviets will ensure their favored faction wins the peace through similar wet-work operations. Then the question is what does a Soviet backed Republican regime look like in the aftermath, especially with the Soviets keeping the Spanish gold reserves. I'd imagine there would be a large exodus of Nationalists after the war, either to the colonies where they set up a separatist regime or to friendly Fascist areas. Which then means if/when WW2 happens ITTL Spain probably gets invaded by the Axis and exiled Nationalists come back with them to set up the new regime.
Doubtful it would help Italy, they sent the biggest contingent of foreign military help IOTL (something like 500% more men than Germany) and their experience didn't yield the Italian army much other than expense:Italy might open itself up to refugees, particularly those who the military experience of fighting in the Civil War. Several Blue Legions fighting in the Italian military structure, particularly if they have officers (likely) who can help refine he broader Italian tactical doctrine from experience, could help blunt some of the incompetence of early war preformance.
On 1 April 1939, the success of the Nationalists meant that the Italians now had a friendly regime in the western Mediterranean. But they acquired this friend at a high cost in both men and materials. Of the approximate 78,500 men sent to Spain, 2,989-3,819 were killed and about 12,000 (10,629) were wounded. Those casualties were mostly caused during the Catalan and Aragonese Offensives, about 44% of the deaths and 43% of the wounded, and the rest during the Guadalajara, Santanderand Levante offensives.[3] The Italian military left behind roughly 3,400 machine guns, 1,400 mortars, 1,800 artillery pieces, 6,800 vehicles, 160 tanks, and 760 aircraft. But, while the military equipment represented a loss to Italy's war inventory, most of the equipment was obsolete. The financial cost of the war was more debilitating. The cost of the CTV to Italy amounted to between 6 and 8.5 billion lire. At 14 to 20 percent of annual expenditure, this represented an immense drain on the Italian economy. The high cost of Mussolini's Spanish adventure severely handicapped Italy in the period leading up to World War II.[4]
As I understand it, the POUM was a combination of the Bloque Obrero y Campesino and the Izquierda Comunista de España. The former of which was can be considered Bukharinist in that it’s on the right opposition and the latter of which was affiliated with Trotsky. The POUM was largely a bloc of Opposition to Stalinism and so it wasn’t conclusively Trotskyist or Bukharinist, it was a collection of both groups.
I’m not familiar with David T though, could you link me to his argument.
I didn't actually say that POUM was Bukharinist--although more of its members came from the BOC than the ICE, it is even doubtful whether there was such a thing as "Bukharinism" by 1936. What I said was that it was not Troskyist, and that Trotsky was constantly quarreling even (or especially!) with the ex-Troskyists in it. For my posts on it, see
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...deology-like-trotskyism.464713/#post-18683833
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...nish-civil-war-possible.462869/#post-18528459
I didn't actually say that POUM was Bukharinist--although more of its members came from the BOC than the ICE, it is even doubtful whether there was such a thing as "Bukharinism" by 1936. What I said was that it was not Troskyist, and that Trotsky was constantly quarreling even (or especially!) with the ex-Troskyists in it. For my posts on it, see
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...deology-like-trotskyism.464713/#post-18683833
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...nish-civil-war-possible.462869/#post-18528459
Sorry for misinterpreting your post. Bukharinist is a wrong term but you do show that the POUM was not Trotskyist and was more influenced by Bukharin. But, I ask you: If Bukharin's ideas had already converged with Stalin's, why did the PCE still attack the POUM?
Nationalists regroup in the colonies à la Kuomintang.