Francoist Spain gets nukes.

What if Francoist Spain had successfully developed nukes? What would other countries do? I believe, that, even the USA may not have been okay with this because accepting a far-right dictatorship for being anti-communist is one thing but letting it get nukes may well be too far. What do you think?
 
Until the 1960s Spain was in no position to even try to do this, the costs were simply too high and nobody was going to sell them a reactor. By the time Spain's economy was in any shape to try and get in to the nuke business they were close to NATO and then functionally part of it. Going for nukes would have put them back out in the cold.
 
What if Francoist Spain had successfully developed nukes? What would other countries do? I believe, that, even the USA may not have been okay with this because accepting a far-right dictatorship for being anti-communist is one thing but letting it get nukes may well be too far. What do you think?

To add to this post of mine, it should be noted that there is a theory that the CIA helped killing Park Chung-hee because he wanted South Korea to have nukes. There is also a theory that the CIA helped killing Luis Carrero Blanco partially because he wanted Spain to have nukes.
Of course, both are dubious conspiracy theories but I found them worth of mention because if they are true, then, there is no doubt that the USA and the CIA would have done everything to stop or destroy Francoist Spain's nuclear program.
Regardless, IMO, Francoist Spain getting nukes is something that the USA wouldn't allow, even in the Cold War, because they already have allies with nuclear weapons, France and the UK, that are far better and saner allies that aren't far-right dictatorships. It would also annoy the Western European countries because they hated Franco and his far-right dictatorship. Many Americans wouldn't like this, either. It could also become Soviet propaganda. On addition, even USA relations with Francoist Spain were far from perfect and would definitely become worse if it did this.
 
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What if Franco abandoned autarky a decade sooner or never tried it?

If the Spanish Miracle starts sometime in the 40s instead of 1959 they might have the economy to pull it off and just be stronger in general.
 
What if Franco abandoned autarky a decade sooner or never tried it?

If the Spanish Miracle starts sometime in the 40s instead of 1959 they might have the economy to pull it off and just be stronger in general.

Even, in 1959, when Spain was at the brink of bankruptcy, Franco was still somewhat reluctant to end autarky so him abandoning it a decades earlier may be hard.
 
What if Franco abandoned autarky a decade sooner or never tried it?

If the Spanish Miracle starts sometime in the 40s instead of 1959 they might have the economy to pull it off and just be stronger in general.

The problem is the continuation of the Miracle is dependent on strong commercial connections with the West. Franco would have to gamble the US dosen't slap sanctions on him for building nuclear facilities
 
I thought Spain did get nukes in 1966 when a B52 broke up over Southern Spain? H bombs at that too. Although that’s probably not what this thread is about. I believe there’s a 2km square area that’s still contaminated by Plutonium near Palomares.
 
By the time Spain has fixed the infrastructure and gotten its economy in the sort of shape it would need to consider building atomic weapons, trying to do so covertly is simply not doable. Spain is too small and too open (even under Franco) to keep a project like that under wraps. Additionally even in 2019 Spanish industry would be hard put to manufacture everything you need for an atomic program and producing deliverable weapons without importing some items that would be a red flag.

IMHO the problem with any "small" country that wants to produce nukes is the delivery system. North Korea has shown that if you make a huge effort and have outside help for a while, you can make missiles at least to be a regional menace. Aircraft are, in a sense, actually harder, Israel has made its own missiles but modern fighter bombers no - it has made airframes and avionics but the engines were imported (which killed one of its fighter projects as the US would not allow export of engines for the fighter, but would be happy to sell aircraft). The point is having bombs can make for threats with "unconventional" delivery such as trucking them in, but you really need weapons and delivery systems that your potential enemies are reasonably convinced could be delivered to their territory accurately.

Realistically the only enemy Franco's Spain would have is the USSR/WP. While the French have gone with their own Force de Frappe the reality is that absent the US/NATO umbrella, still in place even though France is not in the command structure, this basically amounts to a "we can hurt you badly while you totally destroy us" response. Getting the US umbrella and being in NATO with Article Five is a much better nuclear security blanket.
 
Realistically the only enemy Franco's Spain would have is the USSR/WP. While the French have gone with their own Force de Frappe the reality is that absent the US/NATO umbrella, still in place even though France is not in the command structure, this basically amounts to a "we can hurt you badly while you totally destroy us" response. Getting the US umbrella and being in NATO with Article Five is a much better nuclear security blanket.
Wait, is? The USSR wasn't going to nuke Spain without a WW3, and in a nuclear WW3, the few dozen bombs Spain might deliver to the USSR won't make much of a difference compared with the thousands the USA would throw at them.
So, as an independent deterrent, the UK can tell the USSR: if the nuclear genie remains in the bottle, but you happen to be able to invade us anyway, we will nuke you. So don't. France can say: If you get West Germany without nukes, don't cross the border, or we will nuke you. So don't. Spain? It's "If you got there, France already nuked you, you've nuked them and the USA nuked you, so what difference does it make". I mean, even if the USA wouldn't nuke the USSR during an invasion of France, France would threaten that, and that means Spain is protected, NATO or not, at least by France's Force de Frappe.

And, in NATO, Spain becomes part of WW3 and a nuclear target. Outside NATO, Spain can tell the USSR "We aren't getting involved, in return, don't nuke us". The only domestic nuclear deterrence which would make a difference, I think, would be outside NATO, and it's "Hi Moscow, we've just noticed WW3 has started. We aren't getting involved, so don't nuke us or we will nuke you".
 
No one expected the Spanish Inquisition and their ruthless application of fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency.
and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope and nice red uniforms - Oh damn!
latest
 
To add to this post of mine, it should be noted that there is a theory that the CIA helped killing Park Chung-hee because he wanted South Korea to have nukes. There is also a theory that the CIA helped killing Luis Carrero Blanco partially because he wanted Spain to have nukes.
Of course, both are dubious conspiracy theories but I found them worth of mention because if they are true, then, there is no doubt that the USA and the CIA would have done everything to stop or destroy Francoist Spain's nuclear program.
Regardless, IMO, Francoist Spain getting nukes is something that the USA wouldn't allow, even in the Cold War, because they already have allies with nuclear weapons, France and the UK, that are far better and saner allies that aren't far-right dictatorships. It would also annoy the Western European countries because they hated Franco and his far-right dictatorship. Many Americans wouldn't like this, either. It could also become Soviet propaganda. On addition, even USA relations with Francoist Spain were far from perfect and would definitely become worse if it did this.
i feel its a a little from column a and a little from column b with this.
 
Hmm, could someone imagine a situation where France turns to communism (and likely at least north Italy and West Germany - it would likely require a ww2 POD), and Spain enters a nuclear cooperation (like irl between France Israel and Morocco in the 50s) with Israel and France-In-Exile-In-Algeria? Potentially adding South Africa, rhodesia and Portugal to these. They have mostly common goal - defending against « communism » (Israel is a bit different but still has common anti-Arab sentiments with France). They would all be somewhat pariah states for the Anglo American world and may want to cooperate. Surely they could manage to get nukes before the 70s in this case
 
Franco and the nationalists were virulently anticommunist. Franco going socialist is ASB, going communist is beyond the abilities of Skippy the ASB
 
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