If the Confederacy successfully splits from the United States, will this have a major effect on the timing of the Franco-Prussian War?
OTL the threat of Union military intervention helped speed the French withdrawal, but there was also an antiwar movement in France and the growing Prussian threat that were also factors.
A successful Confederate secession will nix one of the three factors, but the other two will remain.
Also, if the French keep troops in Mexico longer, they might be less willing to overreact to Bismarck's shenanigans, delaying the Franco-Prussian War. After all, Bismarck's goal was to provoke the French into attacking "Germany" to secure the support of other German states for unification. If the French are busy, they might be less likely to take the bait.
I'm tinkering with part of a steampunk timeline in which the Confederacy successfully secedes and even grows but eventually starts getting fascist in order to prevent total disintegration, so any help would be appreciated.