Franco-Prussian War Timing Question

MerryPrankster

If the Confederacy successfully splits from the United States, will this have a major effect on the timing of the Franco-Prussian War?

OTL the threat of Union military intervention helped speed the French withdrawal, but there was also an antiwar movement in France and the growing Prussian threat that were also factors.

A successful Confederate secession will nix one of the three factors, but the other two will remain.

Also, if the French keep troops in Mexico longer, they might be less willing to overreact to Bismarck's shenanigans, delaying the Franco-Prussian War. After all, Bismarck's goal was to provoke the French into attacking "Germany" to secure the support of other German states for unification. If the French are busy, they might be less likely to take the bait.

I'm tinkering with part of a steampunk timeline in which the Confederacy successfully secedes and even grows but eventually starts getting fascist in order to prevent total disintegration, so any help would be appreciated.
 
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Snake Featherston

Banned
Xgentis said:
Care to elaborate?
Click to expand...

The lead-in to that war was shaped by factors having nothing to do with North America. That POD is unlikely to affect the Austro-Prussian War, and no Mexican misadventure is going to help Nappy III not be diplomatically run circles around by OvB. The war was also about domestic issues in the Second Empire itself, the kind of issues that no ragged society facing the grave problems an independent CSA would would affect in Europe proper.

On the other hand, a France able to stick it to the USA might be even more aggressive than ours, considering itself more invincible than it actually is, which is only a help to Prussia in the actual war itself as the victory becomes more lopsided than IOTL.
 

Max Sinister

Banned
On the one hand, each French soldier in Mexico is missing against Germany. OTOH, if he has Mexico, Napoleon might not need a success in Europe, or is sane enough that he can't fight on both fronts. If Prussia decided to attack first, the southern German states (except Baden maybe) wouldn't follow them, because their alliance was defensive only.

And what about Luxembourg, meanwhile?
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Almost certainly yes

One thing that needs to be established is what part does France play in the success of the CSA in surviving? Even if it is just the OTL help of facilitating loans and shipbuilding and we assume the CSA decisively defeat the Union, or the Union capitulates due to internal political reasons, then the surviving CSA has a reason to be grateful to France. France is CERTAIN to be one of the first countries to recognise the CSA officially, even if it is after a Union armistice.

How does that affect things? Well, both France in Mexico, and Spain in Santo Domingo are not going to be worrying about US intervention in their affairs, nor about Confederate intervention. Whilst there is anti-war feeling at home on the one hand, on the other Juarez LITERALLY has nowhere to run, since any French recognition of the CSA is going to have expelling him from Confederate territory as a quid pro quo. He CAN be defeated if France is willing to stick the course. Even if not, he is going to find his Northern friends no longer there, and be less effective against Maximiian

Napoleon III is not going to be smarting so badly from defeat, and that is going to be another factor to throw into the mix...

...unfortunately I've just been given some work to do, so more later!

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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