Lets just say that alot of the things that led to the war (Ems Dispatch for one) never happen or aren't as provocative. So with Napoleon III's Empire still alive, and Prussia holding only Northern Germany, what happens next? Does Bismarck pick some other country for expansion as a way to unite Germany?
Franco-Prussian War Never Happens
- Thread starter luakel
- Start date
Max Sinister
Banned
Well, the Ems dispatch was provoking because Bismarck, cunning as he was, wanted it so. He knew that Germany could defeat France in a war, and with his diplomacy he had put sure that noone would interfere. So it's up to Napoleon III. If he's smart enough not to get provoked, there's no war (unless the Prussians want to be the aggressors, and Bismarck, other than the responsible persons in Germany of WW1, knew that this would give them a bad image).
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David S Poepoe
Banned
France and Prussia are on a head on collision over who will be paramount in central Europe. In one aspect the Ems Dispatch wasn't altered very much, if at all by Bismarck, the conditions for a 'flame up' were entirely in Paris and the Court of Napoleon III. One would have to think also if Napoleon didn't initially welcome the possibility of war since it drew attention from problems and civil unrest in France.
I don't think it unlikely to believe that France would have experienced another revolution by 1891 that would have either severly limited the power of the French Crown or seen it altogether overthrown. German unification may have taken longer, but not more than a few more years. Its possible that much less Prussia dominated nation would have arisen without the accompaniment of a Prussian led military victory.
I don't think it unlikely to believe that France would have experienced another revolution by 1891 that would have either severly limited the power of the French Crown or seen it altogether overthrown. German unification may have taken longer, but not more than a few more years. Its possible that much less Prussia dominated nation would have arisen without the accompaniment of a Prussian led military victory.
Anaxagoras
Banned
IIRC, the Franco-Prussian War took place at the time when the French Army had decided to pursue some military reforms largely along the lines of what had been going on in Germany. If the war had been delayed, perhaps the French would have been better prepared for the Prussians then they were in 1870.
Or not.
Or not.
No Franco-Prussian War
This is the first part of a timeline I did on this very subject:
1870: Leopold Hohenzollern crowned King of Spain. Thusly, the Franco-Prussian War, and all it’s consequences, are averted.
1879: Italy begins to attempt the colonization of Cameroon. While taking the coast, the northern interior region belonging to the Sultan of Fulan remains independent.
1884-5: Denmark re-establishes its claim to Togo, fighting with the natives for over a year. By 1885, King Mlapa III has surrendered, giving Denmark full control over the area.
1886: Britain establishes control over Tanganyika, plotting to build the Cape to Cairo railroad.
King Ludwig II of Bavaria dies. He is replaced by the easily manipulated Otto I.
1887: Bavaria announces it has entered into an alliance with Austria-Hungary, which is in direct violation of the peace treaty it and the other south German states (Hesse, Baden, and Wurttemburg) were forced to sign with Prussia after the War of 1867. Prussia threatens war, but backs down when France also announces that it has an alliance with Bavaria. Hesse, Baden and Wurttemburg announce their intention to remain neutral in any war between Austria and Prussia.
1890: In what turns out to be Bismarck’s last great triumph, he finishes negotiations to assemble Prussia, Russia and Italy into the Dreikaiserbund: a military alliance aimed specifically at dismantling Austria-Hungary. In response, France, Austria-Hungary, and Bavarian representatives meet in Rome to solidify their alliance, (with Pope Leo XIII’s blessing).
1890-1914: Spanish-American War, Italio-Ethiopian War, Boxer Rebellion, the Two Balkan Wars, and any major geo-political events occurs the same as in OTL, with the following exceptions:
In 1901, the British respond to the Boer guerrillas not with concentration camps, but rather with deportation: Afrikaaners are shipped out to as yet uncolonized Namibia, and are allowed to set up a new republic there. They manage to establish control over the southern parts within a few years, while the Portugeuse respond by extending Angola’s borders over the remainder. The Trans African Railroad is completed in 1905.
In 1904, Tsar Nicolas II accepts Japan’s acquisition of Korea, in return for Japan recognizing Russia’s control of Manchuria.
In 1905, Britain successfully warns France against colonizing Morrocco.
1914: Archduke Franz Ferdinand assasinated while on a state visit to Serbia. Austria-Hungary makes its ultimatum, the Dreikaiserbund leaps to Serbia’s defence, France and Bavaria stand by the Hapsburgs, and the Mitteleuropa War is on. France attacks Prussia head on, which defends in the west while invading Bavaria. A-H invades Serbia while trying to hold the Russians at the Carpathians. In the weeks following the outbreak of war, Pope Pius X dies in Rome, and his successor Pius XI (Andrea Carlo Ferrari of Milan) announces his intention to carry on Pius X’s policies, including leaning towards France, Bavaria and A-H. Italy invades what remains of the Papal States, citing it as an attack against French troops occupying soil that rightfully belongs to Italy. The Fench garrison in Rome is overwhelmed, and Italian forces treat the Vatican and the person of Pius XI with nothing but respect. France invades Piedmont and neither Italy or the Austrians have the manpower to do anything more than skirmish across their borders. France invades Libya from Algeria.
Meanwhile, the British parliament passes the Irish Home Rule bill, with elections for the Dial to be held the following year. Ulster is, as expected, excluded from Home Rule.
1915: The war progresses very slowly. Prussia continues to slog through Bavaria, and holds off France in the west. France attempts to outflank the bulk of the Prussian armies, by invading through the southwest German states in order to link up with Bavaria. It doesn't work, and Hesse, Baden, and Wurttemburg all wind up fighting alongside the Dreikaiserbund. Austria has lost Galicia to the Russians, but still holds the line at the Carpathians and has reached Belgrade. In the autumn, France has a breakthrough against the Italians, but Italy manages to regroup and hold France outside of Genoa. The French Expedition Force reaches Tripoli. Prussia does manage to convince Spain’s king to declare war on France due to dynastic links: most of the Spanish people however, are deadset against the war.
In the Irish elections, John Redmond’s Parliamentarians win against Sean MacDiarmada’s Clan na Poblachta, with James Connolly’s Socialists coming in third.
1916: The war reaches its end game. The siege of Genoa continues. For the first months of the year, France is unable to get another breakthrough against either Prussia or Italy, even with its new “Tank” weapons. France is thoroughly bogged down in the southwestern German states, and though it counters Spain’s attacks rather easily, it can’t press its advantage. Prussia reaches Munich, and masses on the border with Austria. Russia starts to cross the Carpathians, and the Hungarians look for a separate deal. With all of it’s allies down, their enemies ready to turn their full forces and fighting on three different fronts, France needs a miracle. They get one in April, when they finally take Genoa. This gives France a bargaining chip, and convinces the Dreikaiserbund and their allies that continuing the war with France is more trouble than it’s worth. An Armistice is declared on May 1st, and both sides agree to sit down at the negotiating table.
The Treaty of Geneva is signed on September 20th:
1) Austria-Hungary to be partitioned as follows: Austria proper to be placed under Prussian occupation indefinitely. Bohemia and Moravia set up as the independent nation of Czechia. Hungary (which includes Slovakia and Transylvania) becomes independent, under the rulership of Karl Hapsburg. Trieste, Dalmatia and Croatia go to Italy. Galicia goes to Russia. Bosnia and Herzegovina go to Serbia.
2) Bavaria also goes under Prussian occupation.
3) Both France and Prussia withdraw their troops from Hesse, Baden and Wurttemburg, and both promise to respect their neutrality in the future.
4) Italian soil held by France, including Genoa, is returned to Italy in exchange for The Italians withdrawing from the Holy See and allowing the French garrison to return there. Italy’s capital to be kept at Florence.
5) Spain and Italy cede their African colonies to France.
In November, Charles Evan Hughes defeats Woodrow Wilson to become the 29th President of the United States.
So, what do you think?
This is the first part of a timeline I did on this very subject:
1870: Leopold Hohenzollern crowned King of Spain. Thusly, the Franco-Prussian War, and all it’s consequences, are averted.
1879: Italy begins to attempt the colonization of Cameroon. While taking the coast, the northern interior region belonging to the Sultan of Fulan remains independent.
1884-5: Denmark re-establishes its claim to Togo, fighting with the natives for over a year. By 1885, King Mlapa III has surrendered, giving Denmark full control over the area.
1886: Britain establishes control over Tanganyika, plotting to build the Cape to Cairo railroad.
King Ludwig II of Bavaria dies. He is replaced by the easily manipulated Otto I.
1887: Bavaria announces it has entered into an alliance with Austria-Hungary, which is in direct violation of the peace treaty it and the other south German states (Hesse, Baden, and Wurttemburg) were forced to sign with Prussia after the War of 1867. Prussia threatens war, but backs down when France also announces that it has an alliance with Bavaria. Hesse, Baden and Wurttemburg announce their intention to remain neutral in any war between Austria and Prussia.
1890: In what turns out to be Bismarck’s last great triumph, he finishes negotiations to assemble Prussia, Russia and Italy into the Dreikaiserbund: a military alliance aimed specifically at dismantling Austria-Hungary. In response, France, Austria-Hungary, and Bavarian representatives meet in Rome to solidify their alliance, (with Pope Leo XIII’s blessing).
1890-1914: Spanish-American War, Italio-Ethiopian War, Boxer Rebellion, the Two Balkan Wars, and any major geo-political events occurs the same as in OTL, with the following exceptions:
In 1901, the British respond to the Boer guerrillas not with concentration camps, but rather with deportation: Afrikaaners are shipped out to as yet uncolonized Namibia, and are allowed to set up a new republic there. They manage to establish control over the southern parts within a few years, while the Portugeuse respond by extending Angola’s borders over the remainder. The Trans African Railroad is completed in 1905.
In 1904, Tsar Nicolas II accepts Japan’s acquisition of Korea, in return for Japan recognizing Russia’s control of Manchuria.
In 1905, Britain successfully warns France against colonizing Morrocco.
1914: Archduke Franz Ferdinand assasinated while on a state visit to Serbia. Austria-Hungary makes its ultimatum, the Dreikaiserbund leaps to Serbia’s defence, France and Bavaria stand by the Hapsburgs, and the Mitteleuropa War is on. France attacks Prussia head on, which defends in the west while invading Bavaria. A-H invades Serbia while trying to hold the Russians at the Carpathians. In the weeks following the outbreak of war, Pope Pius X dies in Rome, and his successor Pius XI (Andrea Carlo Ferrari of Milan) announces his intention to carry on Pius X’s policies, including leaning towards France, Bavaria and A-H. Italy invades what remains of the Papal States, citing it as an attack against French troops occupying soil that rightfully belongs to Italy. The Fench garrison in Rome is overwhelmed, and Italian forces treat the Vatican and the person of Pius XI with nothing but respect. France invades Piedmont and neither Italy or the Austrians have the manpower to do anything more than skirmish across their borders. France invades Libya from Algeria.
Meanwhile, the British parliament passes the Irish Home Rule bill, with elections for the Dial to be held the following year. Ulster is, as expected, excluded from Home Rule.
1915: The war progresses very slowly. Prussia continues to slog through Bavaria, and holds off France in the west. France attempts to outflank the bulk of the Prussian armies, by invading through the southwest German states in order to link up with Bavaria. It doesn't work, and Hesse, Baden, and Wurttemburg all wind up fighting alongside the Dreikaiserbund. Austria has lost Galicia to the Russians, but still holds the line at the Carpathians and has reached Belgrade. In the autumn, France has a breakthrough against the Italians, but Italy manages to regroup and hold France outside of Genoa. The French Expedition Force reaches Tripoli. Prussia does manage to convince Spain’s king to declare war on France due to dynastic links: most of the Spanish people however, are deadset against the war.
In the Irish elections, John Redmond’s Parliamentarians win against Sean MacDiarmada’s Clan na Poblachta, with James Connolly’s Socialists coming in third.
1916: The war reaches its end game. The siege of Genoa continues. For the first months of the year, France is unable to get another breakthrough against either Prussia or Italy, even with its new “Tank” weapons. France is thoroughly bogged down in the southwestern German states, and though it counters Spain’s attacks rather easily, it can’t press its advantage. Prussia reaches Munich, and masses on the border with Austria. Russia starts to cross the Carpathians, and the Hungarians look for a separate deal. With all of it’s allies down, their enemies ready to turn their full forces and fighting on three different fronts, France needs a miracle. They get one in April, when they finally take Genoa. This gives France a bargaining chip, and convinces the Dreikaiserbund and their allies that continuing the war with France is more trouble than it’s worth. An Armistice is declared on May 1st, and both sides agree to sit down at the negotiating table.
The Treaty of Geneva is signed on September 20th:
1) Austria-Hungary to be partitioned as follows: Austria proper to be placed under Prussian occupation indefinitely. Bohemia and Moravia set up as the independent nation of Czechia. Hungary (which includes Slovakia and Transylvania) becomes independent, under the rulership of Karl Hapsburg. Trieste, Dalmatia and Croatia go to Italy. Galicia goes to Russia. Bosnia and Herzegovina go to Serbia.
2) Bavaria also goes under Prussian occupation.
3) Both France and Prussia withdraw their troops from Hesse, Baden and Wurttemburg, and both promise to respect their neutrality in the future.
4) Italian soil held by France, including Genoa, is returned to Italy in exchange for The Italians withdrawing from the Holy See and allowing the French garrison to return there. Italy’s capital to be kept at Florence.
5) Spain and Italy cede their African colonies to France.
In November, Charles Evan Hughes defeats Woodrow Wilson to become the 29th President of the United States.
So, what do you think?
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
Garbageman said:
1) There was never such a thing as a "Sultan of Fulan". The people were called Fulani, the state was called Sokoto.
2) Denmark's African "colonial empire", abandoned in 1850, was made up of some forts on the Gold Coast (present-day Ghana). I don't know anything about them having any claim to Togo, which was just a transition area between Dahomey and the Ashanti state before the Germans carved up a colony there.
3) How did Britain stop France from colonizing Morocco?
4) I don't think the Brits would give the Irish Parliament a Gaelic name.
5) It shouldn't take A-H that long to reach Belgrade, it's right across the Danube.
6) Croatia is to big and non-Italian for Italy (and weirdly shaped if you let out Bosnia and Herzegovina). A Kingdom of Croatia under an Italian aristocrat would work better.
7) Why did Britain, the Ottoman Empire, Romania, and Bulgaria stay neutral?
Responses
1) Good to know. I'll correct that.
2) Wikipedia says Denmark staked a claim there in the 18th century.
3) Threatening war. France backed down.
4) Why wouldn't they let the Irish name it what they wanted? If they'd go far as to give them Home Rule, why would the name matter at that point? Just doesn't seem like something the British would get worked up about.
5) How long did it take them in OTL?
6) Rest assured, the Italians will regret that.
7) Britain can sell weapons to two roughly evenly matched power blocs pounding the crap out of each other, and the war ended with a balance of power remaining. Ottomans wouldn't get involved because the Russians aren't breathing down their necks here. Didn't see any reason for Bulgaria or Rumania to get in either (unless I missed something?)
1) Good to know. I'll correct that.
2) Wikipedia says Denmark staked a claim there in the 18th century.
3) Threatening war. France backed down.
4) Why wouldn't they let the Irish name it what they wanted? If they'd go far as to give them Home Rule, why would the name matter at that point? Just doesn't seem like something the British would get worked up about.
5) How long did it take them in OTL?
6) Rest assured, the Italians will regret that.
7) Britain can sell weapons to two roughly evenly matched power blocs pounding the crap out of each other, and the war ended with a balance of power remaining. Ottomans wouldn't get involved because the Russians aren't breathing down their necks here. Didn't see any reason for Bulgaria or Rumania to get in either (unless I missed something?)
More Responses
There are no border changes to occur in northern "Germany" ITTL?>>>
Not yet. Prussia is occupying BAvaria and Austria with a goal towards annexing them, and they are trying to find away around the article of the Geneva treaty that prevents them from going after Hesse, Baden and Wurtemmburg.
Why didn't the Austrians invade Silesia or vice versa?>>>
That's...a good question. Oversight on my part.
There are no border changes to occur in northern "Germany" ITTL?>>>
Not yet. Prussia is occupying BAvaria and Austria with a goal towards annexing them, and they are trying to find away around the article of the Geneva treaty that prevents them from going after Hesse, Baden and Wurtemmburg.
Why didn't the Austrians invade Silesia or vice versa?>>>
That's...a good question. Oversight on my part.
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
Garbageman said:
2) Well Togo is right next to Ghana, so I guess that could work if the (coastal) claim had been part of a Danish Gold Coast.
3) Over Morocco? It would be very rude, Morocco's an obvious colony for France. The French didn't threaten war when Britain invaded Afghanistan, for example. Then again, the British were very insensitive when it came to other nation's interests. (Who does that remind me of?)
4) I'm thinking that, since the British Parliament would have to pass the bill, they'd be the ones naming it, and anything non-English would be considered barbaric. Besides, the Home Rule Bill would take compromises to get through, and I'd imagine the Gaelic names would be the 1st thing to go.
5) In OTL it fell on December 2nd, 1914, was recaptured on December 15th, then fell again some time in 1915. But A-H got help from Germany and Bulgaria in OTL, so I guess it makes sense in TTL.
7) Then I assume the Ottomans have people smarter than the Young Turks in their government. Bulgaria would be only too happy to take Serbian Macedonia and maybe more, while Romania had irredentist claims against both Austria and Russia and could join the best side. Bulgaria at the very least would join the war.
VoCSe said:
VolCSe
3) - Why is Morocco an obvious colony for France? True they have Algeria next door but Spain and hence possibly Prussia have interests in the region. For the reason that historically the northern slice went to Spain Britain, in this case definitely NOT allied with France would oppose the French getting at least the north. Arguably a lot more sensitive than the Sudan over which the two powers clashed in OTL.
In terms of whom that reminds you of plenty of choice. Germany, US, China, France, Ottomans, Russia. All capable of being rude and arrogant.
7) I agree with you I doubt if Bulgaria and probably also Rumania would stay out of the conflict. [Although the POD is early enough a lot could butterfly]. Historically wasn't it an Hohenzollern who became king of Rumania. If that was the case, coupled with the desire for Translyannia I doubt if the proverbial wild horses could keep them out of the conflict.
Think the France/Austria/Bavaria bloc would be onto a hiding given the vastly greater potential of their opponents. [Although historical German economic and demographic development might have been slowed down somewhat without the 1870 conflict completing unification.
Garbageman, since Karl is to be emperor of Hungary and Austria to be Prussian occupied does this mean the Hapsburg's have formally been forced to renounce their rule over Austria? Might make some of the other German states a bit nervous, although their largely too weak to do much about it now.
Steve
Responses Part 3
Historically wasn't it an Hohenzollern who became king of Rumania. If that was the case, coupled with the desire for Translyannia I doubt if the proverbial wild horses could keep them out of the conflict.>>>
Hmmm, true. Although OTL Rumania joined in June 1916, and here the war ends in April the same year. The Russian hate may still keep them out long enough for the war to end.
Garbageman, since Karl is to be emperor of Hungary and Austria to be Prussian occupied does this mean the Hapsburg's have formally been forced to renounce their rule over Austria? Might make some of the other German states a bit nervous, although their largely too weak to do much about it now.>>>
Exactly.
I'm thinking that, since the British Parliament would have to pass the bill, they'd be the ones naming it, and anything non-English would be considered barbaric. Besides, the Home Rule Bill would take compromises to get through, and I'd imagine the Gaelic names would be the 1st thing to go.>>>
Even if the British did name it the Irish Parliament or something like that, once it's established what is stopping the Irish from changing it's name?
Historically wasn't it an Hohenzollern who became king of Rumania. If that was the case, coupled with the desire for Translyannia I doubt if the proverbial wild horses could keep them out of the conflict.>>>
Hmmm, true. Although OTL Rumania joined in June 1916, and here the war ends in April the same year. The Russian hate may still keep them out long enough for the war to end.
Garbageman, since Karl is to be emperor of Hungary and Austria to be Prussian occupied does this mean the Hapsburg's have formally been forced to renounce their rule over Austria? Might make some of the other German states a bit nervous, although their largely too weak to do much about it now.>>>
Exactly.
I'm thinking that, since the British Parliament would have to pass the bill, they'd be the ones naming it, and anything non-English would be considered barbaric. Besides, the Home Rule Bill would take compromises to get through, and I'd imagine the Gaelic names would be the 1st thing to go.>>>
Even if the British did name it the Irish Parliament or something like that, once it's established what is stopping the Irish from changing it's name?
Bulgaria, Rumania and the Ottomans
Okay, I did some more research: when I revise, the Ottomans still won't get involved, but I actually have something for them to do.
But Bulgaria was too exhausted after the second Balkan War to join in 1914: they had to wait until October 1915, after Germany bribed them. So do they join in earlier with a similar bribe from France against Serbia, or do they see that the war's turning against France, AH and Bavaria and decide to sit out?
Of course if I do that, it makes it all the more likely that Rumania smells blood in the water and hooks up with the Prussians.
Okay, I did some more research: when I revise, the Ottomans still won't get involved, but I actually have something for them to do.
But Bulgaria was too exhausted after the second Balkan War to join in 1914: they had to wait until October 1915, after Germany bribed them. So do they join in earlier with a similar bribe from France against Serbia, or do they see that the war's turning against France, AH and Bavaria and decide to sit out?
Of course if I do that, it makes it all the more likely that Rumania smells blood in the water and hooks up with the Prussians.
That means that Hohenzollerns still in the Spanish Throne, right? In that case there are not reigns of Amadeo I, Alfonso XII and Alfonso XIII, no First Spanish Republic and no War of Cantons. In short words, Spain is not in the middle of a crisis of 40 years and its army is stronger and possibly Prussian-like. The industrialization and politics should be also different from OTL Spain and the 3th Carlist War and Cuban rebellions ended earlier. Even the Spanish-American War should never happened!
So, that Alternate Spain may be a small but modern colonial power with possesions in the Philippines, Polinesia, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Sahara, Morocco and Equatorial Guinea, with an army at least at the Austrian level. Not the weak state that you outlined.
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Denmark re-staking it's claim on Toge 1884? No - Denmark was still licking it's wounds of 1864 and nobody would undertake such a venture. Actually everybody was thinking of how to get rid of any remaining colonies.
You call the alliance of Germany, Russia and Italy the Dreikaiserbund. Who's the Emperor of Italy?
You call the alliance of Germany, Russia and Italy the Dreikaiserbund. Who's the Emperor of Italy?