Franco-Prussian War II

Well, I think a lot depends if France decides to play smart (achieving a decent victory, but not destruction of Germany) or goes possessed by the ghost of Napoleon. In that case France is likely to throw somebody else over herself (*cough*Britain*cough*) and dinamitates the possibility of dividing the Germans.

Absolutely agree. I don't think that France would get Britain to intervene in this war, because of the inherent initial instability of Boulanger's regime. However, now that France has defeated Germany handily, France will probably continue their naval building program (I recall that France spent more on the navy than Germany pre-WWI) and thus be percieved by the British as the main threat in Europe.

In my mind, a good result for France would be return of Alsace-Lorraine plus an enlarged Saarland. As the war is started by the Prussian militarists, a big setback can encourage the Southern German States to break from Germany (only, I repeat, if France plays nice and does not mention of natural borders nor annexation of any inch of these southern states).

No way. Germany has united, and people think about themselves as Germans. A military defeat will not break Germany apart. If some of those southern German states attempted to break away, their would be significant opposition both within those territories and outside those territories (ie the German Army and assorted paramilitaries), and would require French intervention, which won't happen.

This, possibly combined with some type of disturbs in Northern Germany and/or a general success of the Russian offensive from the other side if there is one (not sure how likely is any of these events) can knee the German Government and force it to ask for peace. France can be then even smarter and ask for the restoration of Hannover, making Britain and Austria smile and not willing to discuss France' success. France does not need to ask for the removal of the Kaiser, even; in the aftermath of the defeat his position is so bad and unstable that the own German Empire is likely to collapse on their own and be replaced by another loosely German Confederation.

With this kind of swift French victory, possibly combined with a Russian intervention and definitely a post-war Franco-Russian alliance, the British are not going to want Germany cut up. The Brits will probably now view the Germans as the counterbalance to the rising threat of France and Russia. The Austrians certainly will not want Germany cut up, because by 1889/90 it is clear that Austria is probably no longer really a great power, and it needs German strength to maintain her territorial integrity (against Italian, Slavic, and Russian designs).

Also the Germany Empire was not ready to split up. Basically, the German Empire has something of a monopoly over power that comes out of the end of a gun, and unless a foreign power is ready to directly intervene in German affairs and end that monopoly, the German Empire will stay internally intact.

That, of course, if France plays nice. If Boulanger goes crazy and asks clear that he wants to annex half of Germany, he would just put the Germans together and ready to defend the homeland, and make them the victims in foreign eyes. Divide and Conquer!

If Boulanger made it clear that he wanted to go to Berlin, I think that he would probably find himself suffering an accident, or being arrested. He just took power in a coup, not exactly the most legitimate form of getting executive power, and needs a quick victory so he can focus on shoring up his internal support.
 
No way. Germany has united, and people think about themselves as Germans. A military defeat will not break Germany apart. If some of those southern German states attempted to break away, their would be significant opposition both within those territories and outside those territories (ie the German Army and assorted paramilitaries), and would require French intervention, which won't happen.

Actually, I remember reading about WWI that there was a still a little anti-Prussian sentiment (not anti-German, of course) in South Germany at the beginning of the 20th century, and that Alsace-Lorraine and Bavaria attempted to break out in 1918. I supposed that this sentiment could be a bit bigger in ca.1890 as the German state is quite younger.
 

Titus_Pullo

Banned
No way. Germany has united, and people think about themselves as Germans. A military defeat will not break Germany apart. If some of those southern German states attempted to break away, their would be significant opposition both within those territories and outside those territories (ie the German Army and assorted paramilitaries), and would require French intervention, which won't happen.quote]


We're all forgetting one thing here. Roman Catholicism was still a strong influence on many aspects of German culture especially in Southern Germany where the Catholics are the majority. Catholics also comprise a significant number of the population in eastern Germany mainly Poles. Bismarck's effort to reduce the power of the Catholic Church within the German empire left many Catholics bitter. These Germans have been Catholics for far longer than they've been a united country and France just might exploit these religious divisions in Germany for its own benefit. Infact Bismark always saw Bavaria as a threat to German stability. Catholic France playing the role of protector to its German Catholic brethren or what not. In fact Bismarck instituted a number of discriminatory anti-Catholic sanctions in Germany. Therefore if France plays the magnanimous victor and exploits the religious and ethnic tensions hiding under the surface of German unity, I can see the possibility of German unity crumbling with individual German states especially where Catholics are the majority, and where Poles have a significant number, breaking away from the empire.
Also in OTL the Papal States were dissolved as an indirect result of France's defeat in the Franco-Prussian War. A French victory in a second Franco-Prussian War might well see a revival of the Papal States. Even if not, Papal support shouldn't be underestimated. The Pope's support of France might very well embolden Catholic Germans to rebel and demand independence from Prussia.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
No way. Germany has united, and people think about themselves as Germans. A military defeat will not break Germany apart. If some of those southern German states attempted to break away, their would be significant opposition both within those territories and outside those territories (ie the German Army and assorted paramilitaries), and would require French intervention, which won't happen.quote]


We're all forgetting one thing here. Roman Catholicism was still a strong influence on many aspects of German culture especially in Southern Germany where the Catholics are the majority. Catholics also comprise a significant number of the population in eastern Germany mainly Poles. Bismarck's effort to reduce the power of the Catholic Church within the German empire left many Catholics bitter. These Germans have been Catholics for far longer than they've been a united country and France just might exploit these religious divisions in Germany for its own benefit. Infact Bismark always saw Bavaria as a threat to German stability. Catholic France playing the role of protector to its German Catholic brethren or what not. In fact Bismarck instituted a number of discriminatory anti-Catholic sanctions in Germany. Therefore if France plays the magnanimous victor and exploits the religious and ethnic tensions hiding under the surface of German unity, I can see the possibility of German unity crumbling with individual German states especially where Catholics are the majority, and where Poles have a significant number, breaking away from the empire.
Also in OTL the Papal States were dissolved as an indirect result of France's defeat in the Franco-Prussian War. A French victory in a second Franco-Prussian War might well see a revival of the Papal States.

If remember correctly Catholics was only discriminated against in Prussia and not in Catholic states like Bavaria and Baden.
 
I think that the pro-German breaking apart people really need to look at what is necessary for Bavaria being carved out of Germany. Because I think that a short war, and carving Bavaria out of Germany are mutually exclusive.

And Roman Catholicism is not that strong. Nationalism had been trumping religion for several hundred years at this point in European history, so please don't try and play with that.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Hem. Separation of Belgium and Netherlands, in 1830, was based on religious lines.


50 years earlier in a State which was home to two nations (or three nations if the Flemish count as a seperate nation), and before Nationalisme became a true force of the State.
 
If Boulanger attempts the coup, then it would be supported by the army, by his own supporters, and by most of the Royalists. With the swift victory that is then achieved over the Germans, the Monarchy is restored, in the person of Philip VII, the Orleanist pretender. A new constitution would be needed, and Boulanger would probably end up the leader of the Restored Monarchy.

This coup is going to do things to French history. The only other successful coups during the 19th century were both led by Bonaparte's (Napoleon I and III respectively), and both were done with the support of the army. The same has been done here. Except, as I see it, here the Army is playing an even more important part. The Army just delivered the French people the victory over Germany, and delivered Boulanger to power and now will probably see itself playing a very important part within France.

This post-coup, post-2nd Franco-German War, is going to be very dangerous ground for France. With the political order having been overthrow successfully once, and that success having led to a successful war against Germany, the Army may see itself as the guardian of France, or the arbiter of France, a more dangerous view. Basically I think that France is going to be left open to the possibility of another cult of personality and another coup. Even if not successful, I think that the kind of culture that Boulanger's successful coup creates is going to make the political climate in France poisonous, and heavy with intrigue.

When the inevitable 3rd Franco-German comes, I expect that it will be the Great War. Germany under this new balance of power is going to if anything back Austro-Hungary even more recklessly, looking for a reason to have a war with France and Russia, and if Austro-Hungary can provoke Russia through harassment of Balkan Slavs, then the British are that much easier to bring on board the war. France may be facing growing internal dissent aimed against the Boulangerist order, and see a war with Germany as the only way to forge national unity. Britain would view the rising tensions with France and Russia as only more pressing reasons to stay allied with Germany.

When the Fashoda Incident occurs (let's just say that it does) the French militarists (the hardcore Boulangerists) are going to want to go to war. Then they will find out that they can't because they don't have a navy that can stand toe to toe with the British. Think of this as France's Kaiser Bill moment. France starts a crash program to build a navy. Afterall, their army manhandled the Germans in the last go round, and Boulanger is still in charge, so we can beat Germany and Britain, we have mighty Russia on our side after all! Maybe Japan doesn't attack Russia, owing to the Franco-Russian Pact, so Russia's gaping holes don't really come to full, our system is so badly mangled we can't even effectively kill our own people, view. World War One happens, France gets mangled, Russia catches Bolshevikism, Germany stands astride Europe like a colossus, and Britain realizes that they made a terrible strategic mistake . . .
 
This is just after the Berlin Conference on Africa, And just as France is going after Indochina.
So ?how does this affect the Colonial Game?
 

Rockingham

Banned
And Roman Catholicism is not that strong. Nationalism had been trumping religion for several hundred years at this point in European history, so please don't try and play with that.
Umm no.... nationalism was weak, if not non-existent, before the French revolution.

This is just after the Berlin Conference on Africa, And just as France is going after Indochina.
So ?how does this affect the Colonial Game?

I'm thinking not much changes, although Germany *may* sell some colonies, reasoning that wasting resources on overseas possesions was the reason for her defeat. Also, France may sieze some German colonies, though it is debatable if it would keep them or not. Togo and Kamerun would likely be annexed, and possibly some pacific territory.

Britian may act aggresively against any French actions in Morroco.
 
Umm no.... nationalism was weak, if not non-existent, before the French revolution.

Really? Luther's Reformation in Germany was couched in terms of German nationalism. England clearly had a good deal of nationalism by at least sometime during Henry VIII's reign. Dutch nationalism was forged during the 80 Years' War. Machavelli's "The Prince" was a call by an Italian patriot for Italy to unite. This is all well before the French Revolution. France may have sparked a more wide-ranging nationalism among the peasantry, but that the French Revolution was the sole spark for European Nationalism is not true.

I'm thinking not much changes, although Germany *may* sell some colonies, reasoning that wasting resources on overseas possesions was the reason for her defeat. Also, France may sieze some German colonies, though it is debatable if it would keep them or not. Togo and Kamerun would likely be annexed, and possibly some pacific territory.

Germany would sell them to whom? The British don't want anymore colonies, and I don't think Germany would sell them to anyone else.

Britian may act aggresively against any French actions in Morroco.

Britain would be allied to Germany, at least de facto if not de jure, however it is questionable whether Kaiser Henry I (if we assume that Wilhelm abdicates for both himself and his son) would pursue colonial ambitions. With the army having been walloped so hard, I would think that German Nationalists would be much more focused on issues much closer to home, "guns and butter" if you will, rather than Germany's "place in the sun."
 

Rockingham

Banned
Really? Luther's Reformation in Germany was couched in terms of German nationalism. England clearly had a good deal of nationalism by at least sometime during Henry VIII's reign. Dutch nationalism was forged during the 80 Years' War. Machavelli's "The Prince" was a call by an Italian patriot for Italy to unite. This is all well before the French Revolution. France may have sparked a more wide-ranging nationalism among the peasantry, but that the French Revolution was the sole spark for European Nationalism is not true.



Germany would sell them to whom? The British don't want anymore colonies, and I don't think Germany would sell them to anyone else.



Britain would be allied to Germany, at least de facto if not de jure, however it is questionable whether Kaiser Henry I (if we assume that Wilhelm abdicates for both himself and his son) would pursue colonial ambitions. With the army having been walloped so hard, I would think that German Nationalists would be much more focused on issues much closer to home, "guns and butter" if you will, rather than Germany's "place in the sun."

By strong, I meant capable of transcending established countries and empires, and actually having support outside a intellectual class.
 
No way. Germany has united, and people think about themselves as Germans. A military defeat will not break Germany apart. If some of those southern German states attempted to break away, their would be significant opposition both within those territories and outside those territories (ie the German Army and assorted paramilitaries), and would require French intervention, which won't happen.

The southern territories are actually highly likely to TRY to break away; I can imagine a rogue Wittelsbach or Wettin trying to launch a pro-monarchist, pro-separatist coup in Bavaria or Saxony, with a certain amount of support from regionalists. However, with the Prussian ideal of Bildung (a philosophy that incorporates state service, political indifference, and self-improvement, actually the unofficial state philosophy of the German empire) having already integrated somewhat into the theoretical patchwork of Southern Germany, I doubt they'd find many people political enough to go to war with 'em.

EDIT: I just realized that I necro'd this thread. Er. Sorry.
 
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