Franco-Prussian Alliance in 1866 (Benedetti Treaty)

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
[Cribbed from a SHWI post by Jorg Raddatz from over a dozen years ago].

Improbable PoD alert. You have been warned!]

As in OTL, in August of 1866, Napoleon III. instructs his ambassador
in Prussia, Count Benedetti, to ask for Luxembourg and for Prussian
support for the acquisition of Belgium by France. Prussia would get in
turn the French support for the unification of the newly-created North
German Confederation with Southern Germany.
In OTL, Bismarck then took advantage of illness (September to
December) to evade a definite reply, and later, he would communicate
the draft treaty to the British in 1870 and influence British opinion
in favor of Prussia during the war with France.

But suppose, even if it is unlikely, that Bismarck does not refuse to
accept this proposal and the secret treaty is concluded - with one
important difference: France may try to get Belgium, but the small
Luxembourg is either off limits and will become neutral or can become
French only after a plebiscite. [This I base on the idea that Bismarck
will know that a simple cession of "German" Luxembourg to France will
enrage the nationalists at home.]. As I understand, the "support" wold
be diplomatically, not militarily.

So, what happens when Napoleon III acts? The British will be angry and
feel betrayed by their supposed French friends. But will they be able
to do anything against it? Especially if the Belgians (as it is quite
possible in the 1860s) mostly welcome the annexation by France.
The Austrians are still freshly beaten and can only mutter
condemnations. Russia is a close ally of Prussia at the time. Italy is
not nearly a greater power and while they might favor anything that
will lead the French to leave the Papal State araound Rome, they
cannot hope to fight France in a war even if the British would pay
them to do so.
So, at the end of 1867, there is an enlarged France, allied with a
Prussian-led
German Confederation/Empire - and no more Belgium. Both powers will
have earned the enmity of the UK for a long time.

What will be the geopolitical results?

~ an even earlier and stronger naval race?
~ close cooperation of France and Germany in the acquisition of
colonies?

I can hardly imagine a long-lasting hostility between Germany and A-H,
since the latter simply has not the power to maintain this, but there
might be a Bismarck-orchestrated French-Russian Balkan accord that
basically igores Austrian demands - like the creation of an Greater
Bulgaria in the 1870s.

Any other ideas?
 
Bismarck should ask for luxemburg and some dutch parts of netherlands if france say no otl happened. If say yes...
 
That deal was awful that is why bismarck used it against napoleon, make a better one to begin with and the POD might works.
I think you miss my point.

You just said "If a POD doesnt happen, we would get OTL" which is just describing what Alternate History is.
Nothing big, I just thought it was funny.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
That deal was awful that is why bismarck used it against napoleon, make a better one to begin with and the POD might works.

Exactly, which is why the Jorg made the deal more attractive regarding Luxemburg.

Long-term, think we would see Franco-German peace forever after, or a Franco-German war later, with France simply advantaged by having Belgium's population, industry and territory.
 
Exactly, which is why the Jorg made the deal more attractive regarding Luxemburg.

Long-term, think we would see Franco-German peace forever after, or a Franco-German war later, with France simply advantaged by having Belgium's population, industry and territory.
The treaty itself in what would be bismarck own word: "in a relationship with germany good or bad but in a relationship" that the british will be furious is natural, again that means they will need allies in the continent..spain is one, russia migth become one, in general a franco-german alliance(with Austria and later other balkans, including ottomans) against a british grand alliance is possible, without the franco-prussian war and without the eltass-lothrigen(Alsancia-Lorena in french) affair they would be friends, germany is already in british enemy list and napoleon III would be with germany as they deal more honestly, france might not like germany will become a titan a few years later but with Wallonia(and parts of flanders too, or that should goes for netherlands in exchange of Limburg to prussia?) will become productive enough.

Expect massive naval race, france now can afford more ships and with germany in alliance every ship will be targeted to britain and viceversa
 
What would be Prussia's interest in allowing for such a notable enlargement of its most significant rival? A France that included Belgium would be a potentially very powerful rival. Why would Prussia want to do that while alienating Britain?

(A worse British reaction to the annexation of Hannover?)
 
Knowing Bismarck it sounds far more likely he'd "accept" the treaty and then go back on that when the British offer a hefty bribe for Prussia to fight France. It's probably not quite as easy to rally southern Germany to the cause of defending Belgium, but it doesn't sound impossible either.
 
It was just one of the many fancy diplomatic ideas of Louis Napoleon, none of which ever came to fruition: if he had lived in the second half of the 20th century he would have loved playing Risk
 
You forget the long reach of Victoria's family ties, the drive and lure of commerce, and the use of Napoleons ill thought diplomacy as a gaming piece by Bismarck . I very seriously doubt a French German concord in this era. It took until the 1950s for this to seriously be considered, and then only by Bonn, Berlin was still on the other side of the curtain!
 
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