Franco joins Axis?

It was a good deal; 50/50 influence in Yugoslavia, where Britain had very limited capacity to do anything, it lost Rumania and Bulgaria (which were inevitably going to be dominated by Russia) and it won them Greece, where the Russians could easily have made things far more difficult for all concerned.
Thank you. The whole point of the deal from Churchill's perspective was to give up those areas Britain didn't have a chance of influencing in exchange for guarantees that Stalin wouldn't mess around in Greece. He succeeded. He gave up something that he couldn't have had in order to get something that he needed.

With regards to Churchill's relations with Stalin, nothing that I've seen suggests he had any illusions about the mustachioed Georgian.
 
Personally, I don't think the idea is plausible, due to Franco being basically the Democracy head of the world after the US and Britain, but I think that maybe the French could not only grant Axis invasion to Spain, and Africa, but also if they could play their card right, perhaps a navy invasion across the English Channel and/or block supplies from getting to Britain. But as for war length, I think it probably be about the same or maybe drag out longer because now the Germans have their eyes set on Gibraltar Peninsula, and that make would make them distracted.
 

Cook

Banned
I don’t think Spain’s direct involvement in the war is as far-fetched as many here seem to think. In June 1940 people across Europe could safely assume that the war was all over bar the shouting and the dividing up of spoils. On 12 June 1940 Franco changed Spain’s status from neutral to non-belligerent, Mussolini had changed Italy’s status from neutral to non-belligerent in September 1939 and on 11 June 1940 had entered the war, the Spanish dictator may have been going at a cautious pace, but he was definitely following the same route.

When France signed the armistice on 22 June it was after declining an offer of union with Great Britain because the French high command believed that England would either surrender or be defeated within a matter of weeks and therefore such a union was just pointlessly prolonging the inevitable. The majority across Europe (and many in America) thought the same thing and although the attack on Mers-el-Kebir may have made some doubt that the British were doing anything but playing for time and the hope of better terms from Hitler, most would still conclude that there was little realistic hope of Britain surviving, let alone winning the war and the time was right to ingratiate themselves with the new masters of Europe and establish their place in the new order.

And that analysis was largely correct; Britain wasn’t hoping for better terms from Hitler but she was playing for time with no serious hope of winning on her own. Churchill made a great deal of playing up the fighting spirit of the British Empire both at home and with the Americans but he never had any doubts about Britain’s real chances against Germany alone. And in 1940 a realist would have reckoned that Churchill’s grand strategy of drawing the American’s into the war to be totally unrealistic, requiring as it did the overturning of twenty years of American foreign policy.

As already mentioned, Spain’s status changed from neutral to non-belligerent on 12 June 1940 and they began providing political support to the Axis but not military support, at least no official military support; from June 1940 until 1943, German U-boats were able to resupply from German ships in Spanish harbours. Two days after the declaration of non-belligerence the Spanish occupied the Moroccan city of Tangier. Tangier had been an open city under League of Nations supervision since 1923 and was jointly administered by France, Spain and Great Britain. As German troops marched into Paris the Spanish army marched into Tangier, occupying the territory under the unlikely pretext that an Italian invasion was imminent. In comparison to the other events of 1939 -40, Spain’s land grab was modest, but it does show that an appetite for expansion was there if the price didn’t look excessive and the return good.

The failure would seem to have been the German Foreign Office’s once again, by not making the most of the fantastic opportunity presented to them by the lightning fast victories the German armed forces had achieved. Had the Foreign Office jumped at the opportunity earlier, and had they been led by a professional experienced with the diplomatic service instead of a failed wine salesman, their efforts may have payed dividends. A secret treaty guaranteeing Spain territory in French North Africa at the conclusion of the war, along with the immediate delivery of resources may have seen Franco signing on the Axis dotted line June or July 1940 when German victory was a certainty, instead of his rejection of the German request in October when doubts about Axis invincibility had been allowed to creep into the equation following defeat in the Battle of Britain and setbacks in North Africa and Greece.

So what if the Germans had been more persuasive earlier and Spain entered the war in July 1940? Assuming that German’s are allowed to send troops and aircraft into Spain, Gibraltar will fall quickly; the entire peninsular is less than 5km long with the harbour and main town completely exposed to artillery fire from positions on mainland Spain. The R.A.F. presence wouldn’t have lasted a day since the airport runway is only a few hundred metres from the Spanish border.

The Straits of Gibraltar would be as equally easy to close; they are only 13km wide at their narrowest, coastal guns located north and south, plus the Luftwaffe, would close them to all British surface traffic and effectively end the British presence in the Western Mediterranean.

Having the Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine operating from bases in Spain is going to make the Battle of the Atlantic substantially harder for the British. Acquiring Tenerife will go some way to make up for the loss of Gibraltar but the British are going to have to face attacks on their convoys further out into the mid-Atlantic and far further on the routes to the South Atlantic. Since the Battle of the Atlantic was where Britain came closest to defeat this will be to the critical element.
 
Gibraltar will fall quickly; the entire peninsular is less than 5km long (1) with the harbour and main town completely exposed to artillery fire from positions on mainland Spain.(2) The R.A.F. presence wouldn’t have lasted a day since the airport runway is only a few hundred metres from the Spanish border.(3)

The Straits of Gibraltar would be as equally easy to close; they are only 13km wide at their narrowest, coastal guns located north(4) and south, plus the Luftwaffe,(5) would close them to all British surface traffic and effectively end the British presence in the Western Mediterranean.

Having the Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine operating from bases in Spain is going to make the Battle of the Atlantic substantially harder for the British. Acquiring Tenerife will go some way to make up for the loss of Gibraltar but the British are going to have to face attacks on their convoys further out into the mid-Atlantic and far further on the routes to the South Atlantic. Since the Battle of the Atlantic was where Britain came closest to defeat this will be to the critical element.(6)

1) Don't you mean miles?

2) The Spanish coastline is even more exposed.

3) What about Force "H" and the rest of the Royal Navy? Hitler's going to have to commit considerable airpower to pull off such an operation so far away from upcoming ops in the Balkans. And points east. Plus there is still the tactical reality of driving down that peninsula against an enemy with the high ground. Just how few British troops did the British have in Gibraltar at the time? The Gibratarian Territorial Brigade? Is the Spanish coastline higher than the Rock of Gibraltar? If so, how has Britain held it so long?

4) Were the guns of Gibraltar also incapable of being pointed toward the land? And does this suggest the Germans would capture them?

5) See 3. The Luftwaffe was not at its best when trying for naval fleet units. Then there's the little matter of the casualties from the Battle of Britain, the needs of North Africa, the Battle of the Atlantic, air defense over Germany from British Bomber Command, Yugoslavia, Greece, Crete, the Murmansk Convoys, Barbarossa...:eek: The Luftwaffe is going to be pretty busy as it is.

6) Yes. If Goering ever allows the Kriegsmarine its own air force. Which he never ever came close to doing.

Your analysis would seem to suggest that the Heer will seize Gibraltar by a coup-de-main. Not an easy thing to do against an objective that is both a mountain and a peninsula.
 
Personally, I don't think the idea is plausible, due to Franco being basically the Democracy head of the world after the US and Britain, but I think that maybe the French could not only grant Axis invasion to Spain, and Africa, but also if they could play their card right, perhaps a navy invasion across the English Channel and/or block supplies from getting to Britain. But as for war length, I think it probably be about the same or maybe drag out longer because now the Germans have their eyes set on Gibraltar Peninsula, and that make would make them distracted.

Are you serious?
 
When they met Franco submitted a massive list of Spain's needs to Hitler and I don't think anything he requested is considered to have been unnecessary to Spain's ability to function so unless Franco goes off his nut Hitler must provide this vast list or Franco is sitting out the war.
 
When they met Franco submitted a massive list of Spain's needs to Hitler and I don't think anything he requested is considered to have been unnecessary to Spain's ability to function so unless Franco goes off his nut Hitler must provide this vast list or Franco is sitting out the war.

I remember reading about that. When Hitler left that meeting, one of his henchmen remarked that Hitler had never looked so haggard.:D Apparently, Hitler quipped in frustration that "I will never go through something like that again if I live to be a thousand!":mad:
 

Flubber

Banned
I remember reading about that. When Hitler left that meeting, one of his henchmen remarked that Hitler had never looked so haggard.:D Apparently, Hitler quipped in frustration that "I will never go through something like that again if I live to be a thousand!":mad:


IIRC, Hitler compared the negotiations to having teeth pulled.

Franco's may have pitched his famous list a little high, but he knew full well that he'd be behind an Allied blockade as soon as he agreed to join the Axis and someone would have to make up for the resultant shortfalls. Franco was also well aware of his nation's parlous condition.

The civil war had only ended in April of '39. A half million had been killed, another half million had fled, and estimates of the numbers Franco "had" to kill to cmenet Falangist control subsequent to the war ending range as high as two hundred thousand. All that's out of a population of perhaps 25 million too.

As much as the population had been damaged, Spain's internal infrastructure had been harmed even more. Spain needed peace and quiet if he was going to hold onto to power for any period of time, so Franco set the price for going to war so soon after the civil war accordingly high.
 
1) Don't you mean miles?

2) The Spanish coastline is even more exposed.

3) What about Force "H" and the rest of the Royal Navy? Hitler's going to have to commit considerable airpower to pull off such an operation so far away from upcoming ops in the Balkans. And points east. Plus there is still the tactical reality of driving down that peninsula against an enemy with the high ground. Just how few British troops did the British have in Gibraltar at the time? The Gibratarian Territorial Brigade? Is the Spanish coastline higher than the Rock of Gibraltar? If so, how has Britain held it so long?

4) Were the guns of Gibraltar also incapable of being pointed toward the land? And does this suggest the Germans would capture them?

5) See 3. The Luftwaffe was not at its best when trying for naval fleet units. Then there's the little matter of the casualties from the Battle of Britain, the needs of North Africa, the Battle of the Atlantic, air defense over Germany from British Bomber Command, Yugoslavia, Greece, Crete, the Murmansk Convoys, Barbarossa...:eek: The Luftwaffe is going to be pretty busy as it is.

6) Yes. If Goering ever allows the Kriegsmarine its own air force. Which he never ever came close to doing.

Your analysis would seem to suggest that the Heer will seize Gibraltar by a coup-de-main. Not an easy thing to do against an objective that is both a mountain and a peninsula.


I take it as an assumption that the RN would lay waste to the spanish fleet at cadiz on their way out; still a net negative loss gibraltar as a staging and fueling base; force H would have to bail so as not to be sunk at anchor... even if the LW couldn't sink Renown and Rodney, they could damage them severely and put them into the dry dock

if we are talking late 1940, the defenses amounted to 40ish AA guns 30-40 scout and fleet air arm planes; plus the coastal guns and 5ish battalions of infantry.

its a total death hole for the british; much worse than crete, the germans would have complete and total air superiority, and they planned to employ 26 battalions of artillery; resupply would be impossible, even by fast destroyer runs at night due to blanketing of the harbor areas with aircraft and artillery

it's only a question of how long the british hold out and or how long it take german infantry to work their way to the water casemate areas to demolish them with explosive charges... worst case for the british 2 weeks; best case 5-6 weeks, but make no mistake, they are fucked

the loss of gibraltar is devastating in a way; it represents the loss of a major refueling point for the u-boat war; it's a huge prestige hit, but most importantly, it closes that entrence to the med (even though the british didn't use it much during the war) so axis aircraft and subs can now concentrate only in the eastern med, and Malta can now only be supplied from one direction which probably assures it's abandonment, with all the butterflies that would have in terms of creating a more supply line for the dak
 
I dunno. At least Roosevelt never got into percentage games with the Soviets for influence over entire countries, like the allegedly unwavering Churchill.

If anybody bent over backwards for Stalin it was Churchill, who really liked the Vozhd. Stalin preferred FDR to Truman, loathed Attlee and missed Churchill in '45.

The 50/50 deal was actually fairly unrealistic for Churchill to even consider suggesting and, if Stalin had agreed, would have resulted in more democratic influence than OTL.
 

Cook

Banned
1) Don't you mean miles?
No, I mean kilometres. Since the only things of significance on the Peninsular, the port, town and airstrip are mostly half that distance the unsustainable nature of the British position becomes obvious.
2) The Spanish coastline is even more exposed.
To what? Royal navy bombardment? They Norwegian Campaign had already demonstrated just how vulnerable capital ships were to air attack and the Mediterranean convoy battles confirmed it. To marine commando attack? The British didn’t have anything significant available.
3) What about Force "H" and the rest of the Royal Navy?
Hitler's going to have to commit considerable airpower to pull off such an operation so far away from upcoming ops in the Balkans.

Same point, Force H could not operate close to land where Luftwaffe and Regia Aeronautica were operating. And in August 1940 Germany had no plans for operations in the Balkan.
Just how few British troops did the British have in Gibraltar at the time?
4 Battalions.
If so, how has Britain held it so long?
They acquired Gibraltar when the height of naval technology was 4 feet of solid Oak hull mounted with 32-pounder breach loaders. They maintained it by having the largest fleet in the world and by international agreement.
The Luftwaffe was not at its best when trying for naval fleet units. Then there's the little matter of the casualties from the Battle of Britain, the needs of North Africa, the Battle of the Atlantic, air defense over Germany from British Bomber Command, Yugoslavia, Greece, Crete, the Murmansk Convoys, Barbarossa... The Luftwaffe is going to be pretty busy as it is.

Did you actually bother to read what I wrote?
 
Alexandria was reinforced with troops and equipment by convoys that sailed around the Cape of Good Hope and was awash in oil from The Arabian Gulf and food from India. While convoys were run from Gibraltar to Malta they were at a very high price in lost shipping. The British were able to run convoys to Malta via Alexandria, so it is unlikely to have changed much in that respect.
Ah well, bang goes my original premise of the Axis closing the Strait leading to an Axis-controlled Mediterranean.
 
Alright, for the sake of making the scenario more viable let us say that the Nationalist drive into Madrid in November of 1936 is a success, and the Civil War winds down in the following months. The nation is still mauled by the war but not as severely, and has a longer period of time to recuperate and lick its wounds. At the same time Franco also has time to solidify his control over the nation and restructure the military, to whatever benefit that might bring.

Under these conditions, would Spain have provided any net benefit for the Axis assuming they joined, or at the very least a smaller net negative?​
 

Cook

Banned
Alright, for the sake of making the scenario more viable let us say that the Nationalist drive into Madrid in November of 1936 is a success, and the Civil War winds down in the following months.
Massive butterflies. Such a scenario denies the Condor Legion of the experience they gained in the Civil War. The Luftwaffe would go into World War Two with very different air combat tactics.
Ah well, bang goes my original premise of the Axis closing the Strait leading to an Axis-controlled Mediterranean.
Well, you get half; the western Mediterranean would be effectively off limits. The impact on the Atlantic is going to be more critical.
 
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Massive butterflies. Such a scenario denies the Condor Legion of the experience they gained in the Civil War. The Luftwaffe would go into World War Two with very different air combat tactics.

Read up a little on that. Do you suppose that this would result in Dive Bombers being abandoned, or at the very least being relegated to a much more minor role if developed, in favor of Medium Bombers? If so how do you think this would effect the war? I am not knowledgeable enough on tactics to give a fair opinion on the matter.​
 
Spain's requirements in terms of natural resources, fuel, foodstuffs and more in the face of a British blockade will be serious and Hitler will be obliged to make good the lack or Spain will not be entering the war.
 

Cook

Banned
Read up a little on that. Do you suppose that this would result in Dive Bombers being abandoned, or at the very least being relegated to a much more minor role if developed, in favor of Medium Bombers? If so how do you think this would effect the war? I am not knowledgeable enough on tactics to give a fair opinion on the matter.
Well how about reading what I wrote for starters:
The Luftwaffe would go into World War Two with very different air combat tactics.
 

Well how about reading what I wrote for starters:

I did, I'm just curious as to what direction you think it would have taken. The fact that their tactics would be different doesn't grant any sense of direction except that there might not be a change whatsoever.​
 

Cook

Banned
I did, I'm just curious as to what direction you think it would have taken. The fact that their tactics would be different doesn't grant any sense of direction except that there might not be a change whatsoever.
The Luftwaffe developed the Finger-Four formation during the Spanish Civil War. It gave them a distinct advantage over their opponents in air combat for the first years of the war until a simple form of natural selection took place; those that hadn’t been shot down abandoned tight V formations and adopted the same tactics. Modern air combat is based upon it.
 
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