Franco join the axis in early June 1940

Could Franco decided to join the axis in early June 1940 in the hopes of making some quick gains

Would this encourage Britain to make peace

How would this impact world war 2
 
Spain gets to starve very quickly and they have crap for resources given they’ve just been through a nasty civil war. So instead of being a war profiteer they help someone else’s war profiteering.
 
Could Franco decided to join the axis in early June 1940 in the hopes of making some quick gains

Would this encourage Britain to make peace

How would this impact world war 2
Spain was entirely dependant on the US for oil, and unlike Japan's leaders, Franco didn't think declaring war on his oil supply would be a good idea.
 
Spain was entirely dependant on the US for oil, and unlike Japan's leaders, Franco didn't think declaring war on his oil supply would be a good idea.

Oh, the irony that oil transported on the Atlantic bound for Spain was sunk by German subs that could have gotten oil from the spanish
 
Franco was a bit smarter and realized that his country was in poor shape after a Three year long civil war.

Good PoD would be to have him be too near an explosion late in said Civil War, suffer a traumatic brain injury (one of the theories behind Henry the VIIIth's changes of behavior) and not make as smart choices afterwards.

Spain was entirely dependant on the US for oil, and unlike Japan's leaders, Franco didn't think declaring war on his oil supply would be a good idea.

June 1940 is not at war yet with the U.S. There are some Americans who would be glad to do business with him and might even find a "work around" after December 1941.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/03/texaco-franco-spanish-civil-war-rieber/
 
June 1940 is not at war yet with the U.S. There are some Americans who would be glad to do business with him and might even find a "work around" after December 1941.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/03/texaco-franco-spanish-civil-war-rieber/
But the Royal Navy is far more capable of blockading Spain than the meagre republican navy so he would still be effectively choosing to cut off his own supply of fuel. Additionally, Spain joining the Axis seems like something that would be setting off alarms in Washington.
 
While it is all true that in a short amount of time Spain would feel the effects of an embargo it is the very short term that is interesting. Hitler was admirer of England and at first was offering terms. There some who in England were open to peace. The public morale is hanging by a thread with mainly Churchill rhetoric and a historic faith in the royal navy to buoy their spirits. If Spain joins Italy in declaring war and lays siege to Gibraltar that is yet another bad headline to go with the loss in Norway, the loss of the courageous and the fall of France. A new problem for the royal navy is potential for the Italian navy to access the Atlantic adding to their already overstretched responsibilities. The only hope for Spain and Italy was always a negotiated peace. Only overwhelming pressure would possibly bring that about. The best way for that to happen would be for Japan to also attack. The payoff being Malta for Italy, Gibraltar for Spain and indochina for Japan along with free hand against the Dutch. Germany gets end of western front war and end of blockade allowing it to focus on Russia. England gets to keep all its territory except for Malta. US is no way able to intervene yet either politically as public isn't yet in favor of foreign wars or militarily as rearming is really just getting started
 
While it is all true that in a short amount of time Spain would feel the effects of an embargo it is the very short term that is interesting. Hitler was admirer of England and at first was offering terms. There some who in England were open to peace. The public morale is hanging by a thread with mainly Churchill rhetoric and a historic faith in the royal navy to buoy their spirits. If Spain joins Italy in declaring war and lays siege to Gibraltar that is yet another bad headline to go with the loss in Norway, the loss of the courageous and the fall of France. A new problem for the royal navy is potential for the Italian navy to access the Atlantic adding to their already overstretched responsibilities. The only hope for Spain and Italy was always a negotiated peace. Only overwhelming pressure would possibly bring that about. The best way for that to happen would be for Japan to also attack. The payoff being Malta for Italy, Gibraltar for Spain and indochina for Japan along with free hand against the Dutch. Germany gets end of western front war and end of blockade allowing it to focus on Russia. England gets to keep all its territory except for Malta. US is no way able to intervene yet either politically as public isn't yet in favor of foreign wars or militarily as rearming is really just getting started

What if the UK does a China and says nope! Wars start when you want them to but don't end when you will them to.
 
But the Royal Navy is far more capable of blockading Spain than the meagre republican navy so he would still be effectively choosing to cut off his own supply of fuel. Additionally, Spain joining the Axis seems like something that would be setting off alarms in Washington.

Here are some more points:

Spain was very dependant on sea transport as its train system was badly knocked by the war.

Her coastline in the West was very vulnerable to the RN.

When Franco presented Hitler with what he required oil, food and arms were on the list.
1) Where is Spain going to get food? Germany had barely enough for itself.
2) Oil you have covered
3) Where is Spain going to get the arms to fight this war? Her industry is not big enough? Germany has not got enough for her own army.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
But the Royal Navy is far more capable of blockading Spain than the meagre republican navy so he would still be effectively choosing to cut off his own supply of fuel. Additionally, Spain joining the Axis seems like something that would be setting off alarms in Washington.
Erhmm ... this is June 1940 ... post-Poland-Campaign ... post Norway/Denmarck-Campaign ... post "Case Yellow" and Sichle-cut ... which alarm bells regarding the european situation are not ringing already almost ear-deafening ???

Oh, and ... ofc it would help the western allies a lot if british almighty RN is sinking neutral non-belligerent US merchantmen on their way to Spain or even stopping other nations merchantmen considerably lowering US-american profits
... US is still neutral and non-belliogerent ... and pls don't forget IOTL the US even acknowledged the Vichy-Regime as legitimate.

And what do you need the puny spanish navy for in protecting neutral, maybe US-flagged merchantmen ? ... "protected" by the thrieve for profit of US-american companies ?

...
Spain was very dependant on sea transport as its train system was badly knocked by the war.

Her coastline in the West was very vulnerable to the RN.
...
Well, sure, esp. as such population centres as Madrid, Murcia, Sevilla, Saragossa, Bilbao, Granada, Cordoba, Merida, Toledo, Valladolid, Leon, etc. are all served by ocean-harbors. ...

And possibly you mean the 'northern coastline' ? ... as there isn't much of a western coastline of Spain.

Another thought maybe worth thinking of :
might become an interesting early experience for the RN being fought by land-based aircrafts during a long(er) lasting operation as a blockade is ...​

...
When Franco presented Hitler with what he required oil, food and arms were on the list.
1) Where is Spain going to get food? Germany had barely enough for itself.
2) Oil you have covered
3) Where is Spain going to get the arms to fight this war? Her industry is not big enough? Germany has not got enough for her own army.
Ad 1)
... from the same sources as number 2) ? ... maybe also from some other latin-american countries also ?
Ad 3)
Well, could be bought also worldwide and the med at this point of time is full of still non-belligerent neutrals which could 'lodge' or act as strawmen to trade for arms.
... well, ofc you now start crying "... but with what to pay with !"
-with whatever 'money' Franco had IOTL to pay for i.e. US oil
-with whatever 'funny money tricks' the germans might tells them
-with whatever money of whatever questionable sources the germans might/were actually able/prepared to give Franco IOTL through i.e. swiss financial 'channels'
(just some ideas possible part of whatever PoD might cause such an ATL)​



edit :
Question of mine regarding in other similar threads mentioned 'possibility' of a british amphibious action against Spain ... esp. in the time setting of this OP (mid summer 1940) :
1) Where to get the troops for from during/after Dunkirk ?
2) Really wanna invade and occupy another neutral ? ... Portugal ?​
 
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While it is all true that in a short amount of time Spain would feel the effects of an embargo it is the very short term that is interesting. Hitler was admirer of England and at first was offering terms. There some who in England were open to peace. The public morale is hanging by a thread with mainly Churchill rhetoric and a historic faith in the royal navy to buoy their spirits. If Spain joins Italy in declaring war and lays siege to Gibraltar that is yet another bad headline to go with the loss in Norway, the loss of the courageous and the fall of France. A new problem for the royal navy is potential for the Italian navy to access the Atlantic adding to their already overstretched responsibilities. The only hope for Spain and Italy was always a negotiated peace. Only overwhelming pressure would possibly bring that about. The best way for that to happen would be for Japan to also attack. The payoff being Malta for Italy, Gibraltar for Spain and Indochina for Japan along with free hand against the Dutch. Germany gets end of western front war and end of blockade allowing it to focus on Russia. England gets to keep all its territory except for Malta. US is no way able to intervene yet either politically as public isn't yet in favor of foreign wars or militarily as rearming is really just getting started

What if the UK does a China and says nope! Wars start when you want them to but don't end when you will them to.
The point of the thread and Dennis Dean Matta's response is that Spain joining the Axis in June 1940 might be the "Straw that breaks the camel's back," for the British. Turning "Nope!" into "Yup!"

Disadvantages for the British

In the short term the result of Churchill still giving Hitler the "Two Finger Salute" might be that the Japanese might move into the Dutch East Indies, Malaya and Singapore a year earlier, which the British and Dutch were in an even worse position to do anything about at the end of 1940 than they were at the end of 1941. However, I don't know if the Japanese had the logistical capability to do that in 1940. OTOH as their defences were weaker in the second half of 1940 than the end of 1941 the Japanese might need less logistical capability to do it. The Americans are unlikely to intervene at this stage provided that the Japanese give the Philippines a wide berth.

Spain joining the war in 1940 might precipitate a domino effect of other nations running to the aid of the winning side in June 1940 and Germany being the winning side was a reasonable assumption in June 1940.

For example there might be an earlier pro-Axis coup in Iraq and/or it might encourage the Arab nationalists in Egypt to revolt against the British. On this forum it has often been suggested that the Republicans would rise up against the Nationalists if Spain joined the Axis, what are the chances of there being a resumption of the 1936-39 Arab revolt in Palestine if there are uprisings in progress in Egypt and Iraq in the second half of 1940?

Finally and I think this is the least likely, that Argentina joins the Axis because the British were preoccupied in the Middle and Far East.

Advantages for the British

The French might decide to fight on from North Africa because it looks as if they are going to loose Morocco to Spain and Tunisia to Italy anyway. The continuing aid of the French Navy would be of great help. It would be easier to put down a general Arab rising if the French troops in Syria helped, but that assumes that the Syrians don't revolt too if the Egyptians, Iraqis and Palestinians are revolting.

At the very least the British would be on better terms with Vichy because Spain joining the war in June 1940 means no Mers-el-Kébir because the British won't be able to use Gibraltar as a naval base so no Force H.
 
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The point of the thread and @Dennis Dean Matta's response is that Spain joining the Axis in June 1940 might be the "Straw that breaks the camel's back," for the British. Turning "Nope!" into "Yup!"

Disadvantages for the British

In the short term the result of Churchill still giving Hitler the "Two Finger Salute" might be that the Japanese might move into the Dutch East Indies, Malaya and Singapore a year earlier, which the British and Dutch were in an even worse position to do anything about at the end of 1940 than they were at the end of 1941. However, I don't know if the Japanese had the logistical capability to do that in 1940. OTOH as their defences were weaker in the second half of 1940 than the end of 1941 the Japanese might need less logistical capability to do it. The Americans are unlikely to intervene at this stage provided that the Japanese give the Philippines a wide berth.

Spain joining the war in 1940 might precipitate a domino effect of other nations running to the aid of the winning side in June 1940 and Germany being the winning side was a reasonable assumption in June 1940.

For example there might be an earlier pro-Axis coup in Iraq and/or it might encourage the Arab nationalists in Egypt to revolt against the British. On this forum it has often been suggested that the Republicans would rise up against the Nationalists if Spain joined the Axis, what are the chances of there being a resumption of the 1936-39 Arab revolt in Palestine if there are uprisings in progress in Egypt and Iraq in the second half of 1940?

Finally and I think this is the least likely, that Argentina joins the Axis because the British were preoccupied in the Middle and Far East.

Advantages for the British

The French might decide to fight on from North Africa because it looks as if they are going to loose Morocco to Spain and Tunisia to Italy anyway. The continuing aid of the French Navy would be of great help. It would be easier to put down a general Arab rising if the French troops in Syria helped, but that assumes that the Syrians don't revolt too if the Egyptians, Iraqis and Palestinians are revolting.

At the very least the British would be on better terms with Vichy because Spain joining the war in June 1940 means no Mers-el-Kébir because the British won't be able to use Gibraltar as a naval base so no Force H.

With Italy in the war merchant shipping was already going around the cape - while losing Gibraltar would be blow to British basing in the area - this might mean that the British are less adventurous ie no Greek adventure - IMO that weakened Wavells forces too much - Including the subsequent reversals suffered during Sonnenbaum I have heard something in the region of 5+ Divisions worth of heavy equipment and 1.5 Divisions worth of troops.

So Wavell has a cast iron excuse to not send his best troops to Greece and Crete and instead concentrates on Kicking in the Italians in East Africa and defending the canal (which IMO is what should have happened - perhaps with the exception of retaining Crete)

Meanwhile certain spanish islands in the Atlantic get turned into British Islands and as far as I am concerned the Battle of the Atlantic was the most important battle the British were fighting.

And if Portugal is then threatened by this new Axis member the Azores come under 'British Protection' in an Icelandic fashion and the Azores is an even better base from which to fight the good battle.

As for uprisings - there were plenty of those - all could and generally were put down with units that were not then suitable for fighting a peer opponent! A lot of the commonwealth divisions were then still untrained and in some cases little better than a armed police Militia with artillery, armoured cars and some aeroplanes! But still more than good enough to stop the uprisings

And the Axis sucked at supporting them.

And Britain has a historical reputation for being on the winning side of these things - Franco would have been aware of this!

As for Argentina - wasn't it pro British? After all it was selling beef to them and not the Germans. There were Argentines flying and dying in the RAF after all - they even had their own RAF fighter squadron - 164 from 1942

Were the Japanese ready for such a move in late 1940 - they would be conscious that the occupation of FIC had royally pissed of the USA and this is what started the crippling sanctions - what is further activity of that type going to do?

The Japanese are pretty much obliged to attack the USA (as far as they are concerned) if they attack the British and Dutch.
 
Meanwhile certain spanish islands in the Atlantic get turned into British Islands and as far as I am concerned the Battle of the Atlantic was the most important battle the British were fighting.
Agreed, but the British official history says that they didn't have the capability to occupy the Canaries it until the earl part of 1941. I transcribed it onto the other Spain Joins The Axis thread that we had recently.
 
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And if Portugal is then threatened by this new Axis member the Azores come under 'British Protection' in an Icelandic fashion and the Azores is an even better base from which to fight the good battle.
The British had forces on standby to occupy the Azores and Cape Verde Islands. However, the Cabinet policy was that the order to occupy them would only be given if Portugal was actually attacked. That is also in the extract that I transcribed onto the other thread.

Ditto Iceland was only occupied after the Germans occupied Denmark.
 
The Japanese attacking the British and Dutch will result in them, as per OTL, also attacking the USA. For literally the same reasons. WHOOPS! And the USA will never make peace on terms favorable to the Axis once news of the INEVITABLE Japanese war crimes gets out. And once 1945 rolls around...
 
The British had forces on standby to occupy the Azores and Cape Verde Islands. However, the Cabinet policy was that the order to occupy them would only be given if Portugal was actually attacked. That is also in the extract that I transcribed onto the other thread.

Ditto Iceland was only occupied after the Germans occupied Denmark.

Depends how desperate things get?

Agreed, but the British official history says that they didn't have the capability to occupy the Canaries it until the earl part of 1941. I transcribed it onto the other Spain Joins The Axis thread that we had recently.

Maybe with the loss of Gibraltar plans get advanced but even if that is so - fine early 41 it is.
 
With Italy in the war merchant shipping was already going around the cape - while losing Gibraltar would be blow to British basing in the area - this might mean that the British are less adventurous ie no Greek adventure - IMO that weakened Wavells forces too much - Including the subsequent reversals suffered during Sonnenbaum I have heard something in the region of 5+ Divisions worth of heavy equipment and 1.5 Divisions worth of troops.

So Wavell has a cast iron excuse to not send his best troops to Greece and Crete and instead concentrates on Kicking in the Italians in East Africa and defending the canal (which IMO is what should have happened - perhaps with the exception of retaining Crete).
I agree with this one. This would also avoid the losses that the Mediterranean Fleet suffered during the evacuation of Greece and the Battle of Crete. However, there is probably no Battle of Cape Matapan either.

ITTL Mussolini might not invade Greece in the first place.
 
As for uprisings - there were plenty of those - all could and generally were put down with units that were not then suitable for fighting a peer opponent! A lot of the commonwealth divisions were then still untrained and in some cases little better than a armed police Militia with artillery, armoured cars and some aeroplanes! But still more than good enough to stop the uprisings.
ITTL there could be plenty more. Putting down the extra uprisings might prevent Operation Compass, which on balance would be better for the Axis and delay the Invasion of Italian East Africa.

Or it could be passive resistance. What if the Egyptian dockyard workers refuse to unload the ships carrying military equipment? What if the Egyptian railway workers stop the trains carrying stores on the coastal railway to Mersa Maruth? Or they won't provide the labour required to build the extension to the frontier? The British would be able to overcome these problems over time, but in the short term it would mean diverting troops from the front line to work the ports and railways.
And the Axis sucked at supporting them.
They were too far away IOTL and if Mussolini doesn't attack Greece ITTL they will be even further away.
 
As for Argentina - wasn't it pro British? After all it was selling beef to them and not the Germans. There were Argentines flying and dying in the RAF after all - they even had their own RAF fighter squadron - 164 from 1942.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._164_Squadron_RAFTo be honest I don't know. However, we did have a what of Argentina joins the Axis thread earlier this year and my suggestion was inspired by that.

Argentina was in some ways the reverse of Spain.
  • It was at that time (AFAIK) the 10th richest country in the world;
  • It could feed itself;
  • It was self-sufficient in oil (2.4 million long tons of crude oil were produced in 1938 and this increased to 3.5 million long tons in 1943);
  • It had a good railway system;
  • And the Argentine Navy had 2 dreadnoughts, 3 modern submarines, 3 modern cruisers and 12 modern destroyers.
 
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