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OTL, France under Jules Ferry entered into a number of simultaneous colonial adventures in Madagascar and Northern Vietnam. Nearly simultaneously, Japan and China developed growing friction over Korea and the RYukus.

The French attempt to take over Tonkin in 1883 soon ran in to a two front war against Vietnamese insurgents in Annam and the Black flag army (a remmanant of the Taiping rebellion which had long since abandoned it's theology) in Western Tonkin. The Qing government heavily subsidised and supported both forces, effectively fighting a proxy war against France where it was weakest, on land, while avoiding direct confortation. By August 1884 the French had had enougth and escalated the conflict, destroying the Chinese southern fleet, blockading the coast and landing in Taiwan.

Meanwhile, in Korea, the reformers backed by the Japanese and the conservatives backed by the Qing were waging a struggle of assasinations, coups and counter coups. China, unlike Japan, was sending large numbers of troops into Korea to aid the conservatives. In December 1884 the Japanese supported a failed coup attempt http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gapsin_Coup which ended when loyalist and chinese troops routed the conspirators and stromed the Japanese legation and killing 40 of it's staff.

France and Japan cautiously courted each other for support against CHina. Japan, however, was not really interested in comitting until the Gapsin coup failed and by the time the Japanese were interested the French believed they could win on their own and CHina was prepared to concede to Japan most of what they could gain by war. The chances for an alliance were not helped by the unusually racist attitudes of the French ambassador to Japan who essentially disobeyed orders from Jules Ferry to convey an offer for alliance..

I can see a nmber of POD's which might get the French-Japanese alliance to form:
1. For whatever reason the Tonkin expedition is delayed (colonial issues elsewhere? Different political merry go round in France?) for a year or else the French choose not to escalate the conflict until 1885.
2. The Korean and Qing governments refuse to pay reparations for the destruction of the Japanese legation.
3. ALternatively, the Gapsin coup enjoys brief sucess before the chinese can squash it and the new Korean government call upon chinese troops to leave, asking for Japanese assitance.
4. the French suffer a major defeat during the critical period making them more prepared to offer gurantees to Japan.

Let's suppose that for whatever reason France avoids formal war with CHina until January 1885 and that Japan, instead of recieving Korean reparations opts for an alliance with France. Under French naval protection Japan invades Korea as the French marines sieze the pescadores and prepare to capture port arthur (which is what the French commander asked for OTL. Ferry could not raise the necessary support in Paris so he opted for Taiwan)

How quickly do the Qing sue for terms?

Does Russia:
1. Stand idly by.

This probably means earlier but more limited Japanese gains than OTL

2. Aid China in mediating a moderate settlement for a price (rail concessions in Manchuria?)

If CHina ends up having a boxer revolt equivalent and RUssia ends up occupying Manchuria and colliding with Japan then Russia is better placed for the land war.

3. Or join the war and invade XInjiang, Manchuria and Mongolia as per their 1881 warplans during the Ili crisis?

Could lead to an early Russo-French alliance and a much stronger Russia. Japan would likely be screwed over by Russia and France, gaining little from the war. But without a strong fleet and an alliance with a EUropean power there is little they can do about it- and by the time they get one capable of standing up to a RUssian French combine RUssia is much stronger in Manchuria.

Idaes, suggestions?
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