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Bismarck historically was angling for a Franco-Prussian War, but what if the Italians bumble into a conflict over the French-protected Papal State before a War can break out?

The Italians pick a fight over Lazio. The Italian manage to take Lazio, but France seizes Elba, Sardinia, and Aosta from Italy.

The Papacy is relocated to Avignon. Conservative Catholics were an important part of the Bonapartist coalition, so I think this would aid Napoleon III's Regime. Papal Loyalists likely relocate to France. France probably has access to the Papal Zouaves now as well - perhaps they end up as something like a second Foreign Legion?


Bismarck proceeds to use the tumult to bring Baden into the North German Federation. Baden tried to join in 1869, but Bismarck opted to deny this in order to avoid antagonizing France.

This just leaves the issue of Palatinate. On the one hand, Prussia might want to deal with that exclave (perhaps handing it to Baden?) but on the other hand if France started a war over the place, it might be just the thing to pressure Bavaria into joining Germany.
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