Franco-German War in 1887?

The 1887 Schnaebele Incident nearly led to war between France and Germany. But what if went down?

From the Wikipedia

The week-long incident, between 21 and 28 April, had such threatening and provocative language from both sides, as to cause serious concern of war. A large section of the German press demanded that Germany make no concession. In France, the Cabinet voted 6 to 5 against an ultimatum demanding the release of Schnaebelé with an apology, which would almost certainly have meant war, as had happened with the Ems Dispatch in 1870.[9] The proposed ultimatum had been put forward by French war hawk and Minister of War Georges Ernest Boulanger, who also brought in a bill to mobilise an army corps.

So say for whatever reason the cabinet goes the other way, and a shooting war breaks out?
 
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It really sounds like a juggling act with the German side, the French Republican side, the French Boulangist side, the dwindling Russian pro-German side and the growing Russian pro-French side up in the air.

Plus, Wilhelm I. is dying and his heir, Crown prince Friedrich Wilhelm is not much healthier. Tsar Alexander III really dislikes Prince Wilhelm (II.).

So it seems at least possible that an aging Bismarck tries to engineer a French declaration of war as long as Russia is formally in the German camp.

So, assumption of events:

~ 25th April 1887: France sends an ultimatum to release Schnaebele or face war.
~ End of April 1887: Germany ignores it, keeps Schnaebele in jail.
~ 2nd May 1887: France declares war on Germany.
Germany has already mobilized 70.000 reservists in Februaray when quarrelling started.

The League of the Three Emperors treaty expires in October 1887, and the Reginsurance Treaty is probably already negotiated. So Russia as well as Austria-Hungary are expected to show friendly neutrality towards Germany in case of an unprovoked attack by France.

Big question: Will the Russian court regard the affair as German provocation or not? Will the Tsar want to go to war against Germany and unavoidably Austira-Hungary? I don't think so, and Foreign Minister de Giers will certainly advise against such a war.

As long as the war is short and has no naval component in the Mediterranean or North Sea, I think the UK will remain neutral.

I cannot speak for the military aspect. Any ideas anyone?
 
I'd need to do some more research on it but I'm not sure it would go entirely well for Germany.

By then, the French have amazing rifles with long range, breech loading and smokeless powder. Top of my head I'd think they caught up on the artillery gap.

In such an event, the French would probably be more motivated as they might get Alsace-Lorraine back. The Alsace thing also means a potential fifth column in Germany.

The French navy is also very good at this point. As usual, it's a question of how long France can hold the initial assault. France does have a good manpower pool, just as Prussia but can also get men from Algeria in indigenes regiments.
It can also blockade the German ports with its superior navy.

Again, this is top of head, research is needed
 
I'd need to do some more research on it but I'm not sure it would go entirely well for Germany.

By then, the French have amazing rifles with long range, breech loading and smokeless powder. Top of my head I'd think they caught up on the artillery gap.
Both France and Germany have largely replaced the artillery they used in the war, but while the new ones are a modest improvement for Germany (mainly the reliability of the guns), the French have made a huge leap with the De Bange Guns - equalizing the German quality advantage - and had for a time also more artillery than Germany.

As for rifles: The French have introduced the Lebel, but just started issueing it and it took them otl until 89 to completely equip their peace time army. The main part of their forces are still equipped with the Gras single shot rifle. They also have a limited number of Kropatschek black powder repeating rifles. Meanwhile Germany is almost finished with issueing the 71/84 repeating blackpowder rifle and had not yet the opportunity to evaluate the Lebel. When they got to test it otl in winter 87 they were able to get a matching if still somewhat faulty rifle into production within a few month. Which also shows how impressed they were by the Lebels performance.

Big question is the tactical and strategic state of the armies at the time and frankly I have no idea, though I thin the Germans are likely still a bit better. But enough? WWI showed they both made some mistakes in adapting, but the technological advances which made the mistakes so obvious were only to a limited degree introduced in 87. I think a war between France and Germany at this time probably would end in a stalemate since neither side is imo able to knock out the other quickly. And at the time none of the other great powers will really want to get involved nor are they really obliged to. Probably they pressure both sides to the negotiation table after the initial battles.
 
What about the war plans?

AFAIK, 1887 was an unfortunate time for Germany. Moltke was old (born in 1800, after all), but still head of the general staff. Fixated on Rusia more than on France. Prestige. But his obvious successor, Waldersee, was cultivating a phony friendship with Prince Wilhelm (II.) and already spinning intrigues, hoping to become Bismarck's successor as well.

The Germans had long planned with the fortification of Metz and Straßburg, Mainz, Koblenz, Cologne and Wesel. But the new high explosives had caused a revolution in artillery, and those place had become more or less worthless. An emergency building program had started only in late 1886.

OTOH, the French fortifications along the border (Verdun, Toul, Epinal, Belfort) suffered a similar problem. AIUI, for once, the offensive would have an advantage, but neither the French nor the Germans had an offensive war plan in early 1887. So I guess that any attempt to win the war by quickly progressing and capturing a lot of enemy territory (before the other powers forced both parties to the congress table) would be unplanned, spontaneous and rather chaotic.

Wilhelm II. starting his reign during a war (and one of the non-short-and-triumphant kind) would have a big influence on, well, everything in Germany.
 
We're getting some good ideas here! At first I thought the Germans would cream the French instantly.

If the Germans were so unprepared why would the prudent Bismarck want to instigate a war? Was he confident in something else? Did he think the French would launch an unorganized offensive, and then the Germans would strike back decisively? Maybe, but those forts couldn't be counted on, but my guess is the French would reach the end of their logistics tails before they reach anything important, and the Germans could strike back.

Or perhaps neither side moves and there is a 'phony war' while the Germans mobilize for the campaign. The Germans may have inferior field guns, but, they are an industrial colossus, and have more manpower.

In terms of diplomacy, Germany holds the high ground. What could Russia hope to do? It was grossly unprepared, and the German's plans at this time were for Russia. Their best move is to sit it out, or they'll lose diplomatic clout and the actual war.

Wasn't Italy allied with Germany and A-H? If things go well for ze Germans, I know Italy was eyeing up Tunisia...

What do you guys think?!
 
Big question is the tactical and strategic state of the armies at the time and frankly I have no idea, though I thin the Germans are likely still a bit better. But enough? WWI showed they both made some mistakes in adapting, but the technological advances which made the mistakes so obvious were only to a limited degree introduced in 87. I think a war between France and Germany at this time probably would end in a stalemate since neither side is imo able to knock out the other quickly. And at the time none of the other great powers will really want to get involved nor are they really obliged to. Probably they pressure both sides to the negotiation table after the initial battles.

I think you're hitting a big point here. In 1870, the Prussian army had been involved in many wars in the continent while things had been calmer (relatively) for the French over the last few years.
In 1887, the Germans have been resting while the French have been busy to say the least.

Indochina, the Franco-Chinese war, the ever-lasting pacification of Algeria, the Scramble for Africa... The French are veterans, at least the officier and sous-officier corps. Are they experimented in facing pitched battles? Maybe not, except the Franco-chinese war, but they do have a lot of combat experience in stressful battlefields.

Counterpoint is that those campaigns are far away. It would take a few months to get them back at the Metropole, which is always the goal in Franco-German wars. As it's been shown time and again, since Paris is at the end of a flatish plain and since Paris is THE centre of French power, taking Paris is often the German end game. A big blow to kill the French. If the French manage to hold the intial assault, things generally go much better as the French are not that outmatched, population or industry wise. I mean, the German have more, by a lot but the French are not completely helpless either

So if the French can hold back the initial assault and get enough time to get those colonial troups back, I smell big trouble for Germany.

Or perhaps neither side moves and there is a 'phony war' while the Germans mobilize for the campaign. The Germans may have inferior field guns, but, they are an industrial colossus, and have more manpower.

If there is a declaration of war, it will be a real war. The French are in the middle of a big wave of revanchism and want Alsace-Lorraine back.
 
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Early Trench War?

If the French attack first, push back the Germans until they outrun logistic support, and then get shoved back into France until the Germans outrun their supplies, they might bog down in static lines like in WW1. (OK, is this possible?)
Without any other countries involved, the two sides realize the war is going nowhere, and are persuaded to come to the negotiating table. However, the Second Franco-Prussian War leaves both sides thirsting for a rematch, only this time, they have an understanding of what can happen in a trench war system, and make adjustments accordingly (earlier tanks?).
Is this feasible?
 
We're getting some good ideas here! At first I thought the Germans would cream the French instantly.

If the Germans were so unprepared why would the prudent Bismarck want to instigate a war? Was he confident in something else?
From the actions of Bismarck during that time and the whole circumstances of the affair I think the German side really suspected (or even knew for certain) Schnaebele to be a spy. The police officers responsible just did not consider the circumstances of the arrest. For an instigated affair the timing is just to stupid from Bismarcks POV: Relations with Russia are up for renegotiation, the French army is more equal than in earlier years and already has shifted partially towards the German border before the affair, both emperor and crown prince are not that healthy.
Then again I suppose it is possible that other interests in Germany pushed the affair: Waldersee for instance favoured a stricter stance and was more confident of German chances.
 
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