Franco-German War before WWI?

Well, OTL "Agadir" went against the Germans and no war broke out. In particular, Morocco was advantage France - unless A-H involved no German bases in the Med & most of the French fleet there. Really no way for there to be a colonial conflict that would end up with Germany attacking France.

As far as Germany was concerned, the results of the Franco-Prussian War had pretty much satisfied any territorial desires in Europe. Any territorial demands/war aims in OTL WWI came after the war started, and, as typical, war aims on both sides became wider and harder as the fighting went on.

As the start of OTL's WWI approached, there was an element (disputed how large) in German thinking about fighting a war before Russia "modernized" and Germany faced two relatively modern and well developed militaries (backed with decent industrial economy) on both sides - allied to each other against Germany.

In the end, I can see France with reasons to attack Germany,although per previous posts see it unlikely it would happen any earlier than OTL. Germany, can't find any reason for them to attack France before the mess that started WWI.
 
I will have to agree with LordKalvert's analysis of Plan XVII, as well as his assessment of periods of relative French strength vis-a-vis Germany during the belle epoque.

Plan XVII was quite a step backwards from Plan XVI or any defensive-oriented strategy; anticipating and preparing for a defense of Belgium and abandoning plans for a [politically-motivated] offensive into Alsace-Lorraine would, more-or-less, crush the German offensive through Belgium and open up an opportunity to exploit German weakness. Pretty much every wargame I've played reinforces this, even if the stupidity of running the majority of your army against prepared German fortresses while an anticipated (and well-known, at this point; the French had more than enough intel to know that was what the Germans planned to do) German offensive was sweeping in through Belgium.


Politically, the question becomes "how will such a war starts". The French political and military establishment was quite adamant about not fighting Germany alone, and it's difficult to see a scenario where France would willingly get into a 1 on 1 fight with Germany during this period, and not the least as the aggressor nation. France was expanding overseas, and was an established colonial power; Germany was not, but, under Wilhelm II, wanted to. Still, it seems rather unlikely that there would be a continental war over colonies; at the various points that Germany sought to press colonial crises that could've lead to war, Germany was clearly outmatched diplomatically, and a WWI fought in the 1900's would likely not favor Germany.

I'm reminded of an old thread involving an escalation of the First Moroccan Crisis and a war between France and Germany. The thread consensus is that it would end in a German defeat, and rather swiftly due to economic collapse if Britain entered in as well.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=179625
 
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LordKalvert

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I will have to agree with LordKalvert's analysis of Plan XVII, as well as his assessment of periods of relative French strength vis-a-vis Germany during the belle epoque.

Plan XVII was quite a step backwards from Plan XVI or any defensive-oriented strategy; anticipating and preparing for a defense of Belgium and abandoning plans for a [politically-motivated] offensive into Alsace-Lorraine would, more-or-less, crush the German offensive through Belgium and open up an opportunity to exploit German weakness. Pretty much every wargame I've played reinforces this, even if the stupidity of running the majority of your army against prepared German fortresses while an anticipated (and well-known, at this point; the French had more than enough intel to know that was what the Germans planned to do) German offensive was sweeping in through Belgium.


Politically, the question becomes "how will such a war starts". The French political and military establishment was quite adamant about not fighting Germany alone, and it's difficult to see a scenario where France would willingly get into a 1 on 1 fight with Germany during this period, and not the least as the aggressor nation. France was expanding overseas, and was an established colonial power; Germany was not, but, under Wilhelm II, wanted to. Still, it seems rather unlikely that there would be a continental war over colonies; at the various points that Germany sought to press colonial crises that could've lead to war, Germany was clearly outmatched diplomatically, and a WWI fought in the 1900's would likely not favor Germany.

I'm reminded of an old thread involving an escalation of the First Moroccan Crisis and a war between France and Germany. The thread consensus is that it would end in a German defeat, and rather swiftly due to economic collapse if Britain entered in as well.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=179625

Fully agree here. There is very little reason for a war to break out- especially given the political leadership in both countries. Colonial issues were a very thin reed to bring about a war.

However, we should remember that wars can start for some pretty weak reasons- the Franco-Prussian War over a matter that was largely solved, the assassination of the Archduke (an extreme provocation but no one was anticipating war when it happened) are just two examples.

What I can see is a more belligerent French Government, say under Boulanger, feeling strong enough that they allow some incident to escalate to war. For a government that seeks war, an occasion can usually be found
 
However, we should remember that wars can start for some pretty weak reasons- the Franco-Prussian War over a matter that was largely solved, the assassination of the Archduke (an extreme provocation but no one was anticipating war when it happened) are just two examples.
Christopher Clark would disagree with you here.
 
I see lots of discussion about how Joffre could beat the 1914-Schlieffen, which is interesting but IMO not relevant.

The Schlieffen plan is a gamble to crush France. It relied on Austria and Italy to hold while the Germans go gallivanting in Belgium.

If the war is just France vs. Germany, you either end with an underpowered Schlieffen as in 1914, or you end (one hopes) with reorganisation and new plans - the Germans weren't mad enough to abandon the Elzass-Lothringen forts if they had noone to take up the defence in their place.Even then, none of the German plans seem to have considered directly assaulting the French forts.

And of course, if we have a pre-1914 war we might see someone else than Möltke in charge.

A simple 1-v-1 would undoubtedly end up with SOME offensives, at least, but it's gonna be terribly dependent on how the diplomatic situation really is. If Russia and Britain threaten to join France, Germany is more likely to opt for offensives for an early victory. If noone seems likely to join France and France is trying to enforce something, Germany would be well-served simply to defend.
 
Not totaly on topic, but how do the thoughts of the French chances and the "percived" militarism of Germany go together?
As I read this and the many voices that prop French chances, how got the Kaiserreich the militaristic stamp and not France? And please not just the Kaiser. That is so cliche...
 
Not totaly on topic, but how do the thoughts of the French chances and the "percived" militarism of Germany go together?
As I read this and the many voices that prop French chances, how got the Kaiserreich the militaristic stamp and not France? And please not just the Kaiser. That is so cliche...

Imperial Germany gets the militarism stamp not because of its excessive military spending (irrc the spend less than the french per capita and I believe less than the russians in absolute numbers) or due to its large army (again in relation to population the french had a larger army), but because of the adoration for all things military.

I think this "German militarism" is best examplified by the story of a shoemaker, who with nothing but a fake uniform commandeered a group of soldiers, arrested the mayor of the town of Köpenick and then proceeded to seize the city treasure.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Captain_of_Köpenick_(play)
 
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