The CSA drunk with "victory disease" try to take over Mexico in 1870. In TTL because the Union loses France remains in Mexico until that date. How screwed is the CSA? 
Yeah, the way I see it the CSA gets curbstompped in Mexico by the French and the US grabs TX at the very least. Do you see any other states it could grab? Assume OTL CSA minus WV and TN.Very, expect the Union to try to grab at least some of it back
How is France still in Mexico when a certain crisis with Prussia is underway? The new post-Napoleon regime will pull out of Mexico so fast...
Extremely. The CSA will have enough problems winning against the USA, against a European power it will be the fish in a barrel that European Power shoots for shits and giggles. Napoleon III's army, the victors of Solferino, are more than able to gut and fillet the Confederacy without it having so much as a means to respond to this.
How is France still in Mexico when a certain crisis with Prussia is underway? The new post-Napoleon regime will pull out of Mexico so fast...
The causes of the Franco-Prussian War were so monumentally absurd that I think even the most minor change to the TL can easily butterfly it away.
Wouldn't you be able to make an argument for the opposite. It was the result of two countries that were extremely eager to fight each other and so they will always find a provocation no matter how absurd it needs to be.
How is France still in Mexico when a certain crisis with Prussia is underway? The new post-Napoleon regime will pull out of Mexico so fast...
Especially since the parts of the CSA nearest to Mexico are the least populous and most poorly defended. It would not be at all implausible for an established Maximilian to seize everything west of the Mississippi and the USA to steamroll the rest.
That said, the scenario is extremely implausable. IOTL France and the CSA were on friendly terms and both had their hands full already; the French with the Mexican insurgency and tensions in Europe, and the CSA with the Union invasion. Neither is likely to start anything which will add to their existing problems.
In the event of a successful Confederate bid for independence they still are looking over their shoulder at the USA and the French, even if they put down the revolt, will still be sitting on a powder keg; the moment the French get involved in a European war the Mexicans will come storming right back. Given that situation neither is is a position to be aggressive and both would refrain from annoying the other party.
Highly unlikely. There's no realistic scenario for the CSA's independence that doesn't leave a still far larger and hostile Union arrayed against it. The CSA would spend the rest of its (probably short) existence guarding an armed northern border; it wouldn't have the time or resources to start a separate war. It probably wouldn't have the political coordination to do it, either. It lacked unity as a nation and authority as a government. But, if you really insist, then...The CSA drunk with "victory disease" try to take over Mexico in 1870.
Hosed beyond recognition. While the French were tying up (and probably chewing up) whatever the CSA could send south, the Union would see its opportunity and resume hostilities. It would be suicidal for the CSA, because they wouldn't be maintaining their independence with foreign support, including that of France, in the first place.In TTL because the Union loses France remains in Mexico until that date. How screwed is the CSA?![]()
Probably, I admit it is a longshot. However, countries have done monumentally stupid things before. Look at WWII Japan! Any sane government would have backed down rather than go into a suicidal war with the US!
except the Japanese (and in fact the world) didn't know the military capabilities of the U.S. I don't even think the U.S. did.
except the Japanese (and in fact the world) didn't know the military capabilities of the U.S.
Probably, I admit it is a longshot. However, countries have done monumentally stupid things before. Look at WWII Japan! Any sane government would have backed down rather than go into a suicidal war with the US!
except the Japanese (and in fact the world) didn't know the military capabilities of the U.S. I don't even think the U.S. did.