Franco-British Union in June 1940

Cook

Banned
The obvious effect is the French continue fighting, not just in North Africa, but in southern France.
The most that could be hoped for in Southern France is a few delaying actions to allow as much as possible to be evacuated from the southern French ports to North Africa. The Union wasn’t proposed until after the French line had almost completely collapsed.

Beyond that however literally everything changes. All of the French colonies are part of the new union’s empire. Including Indochina; so no Japanese occupation and no Japanese bases south of Hainan. A pro-Nazi coup is unlikely to take place in Iraq in 1941 because the conspirators could not hope for any Nazi assistance coming through pro-Axis Vichy Syria-Lebanon, likewise no Syrian campaign by the 7th A.I.F. division. Syrian and Lebanese independence would be delayed, not being the result of the invasion of the Vichy Mandate and Moshe Dayan never wears that distinctive eye patch. There would be no Madagascar Campaign, the forces diverted to that would instead continue straight through to India and Burma instead. Of course since the Japanese, if they moved to acquire the Southern Resource Zone would be doing so without air and sea bases in southern Indochina and would have to invade there first, slowing down their progress further south.

The French Fleet would continue fighting on the allied side including several of the most modern battleships in the world and, far more importantly for the Battle of the Atlantic, a large number of destroyers as well as the entire French Merchant Fleet. People generally overlook the merchant fleet but they would have made an enormous difference.

With the French continuing the fight from North Africa there is no possibility of Hitler neglecting the Mediterranean theatre because that is where The War is. The question then is how capable the Axis are of invading Tunisia? If they are not able to take Tunisia, Libya is going to be isolated very quickly. Either way the Battle of the Mediterranean is going to look completely different. I would not expect there to be a Balkan Campaign; Hitler would have no political reason to reject the Italian claims to Nice, Corsica and Tunisia and would instead be actively helping them in their efforts to take down this new greater Franco-British Empire.

The other question is just how much cash reserves the French had overseas and how much gold they’d be able to get out of Metropolitan France before the advancing Germans.

For the French people in metropolitan France this scenario is far more unpleasant. Some type of collaborationist authority is to be expected but it would not have international recognition. Historically the United States sold large amounts of grain to Vichy France, without those grain shipments the French people’s food rations would be substantially lower. There would also not be an unoccupied zone in this scenario; so no sanctuary, however temporary in the south for France’s Jews, Communists etc.

Post war the differences would be enormous regardless of whether the Union survived or was dismantled by mutual consent upon the liberation of Paris.
 
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