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PoD is the Trent affair turning hot. France wanting to expand it's influence recognizes the Confederacy and deploys a naval force.
Immediate effect is the Union Navy is crushed. the USA CSA Frontier and the USA BNA Frontier likely sink into Stalemate. Union economy suffers and Confederate economy improves / is not starved as badly.
The Russians seeing the British occupied in North America takes a second crack at the Turks and declares support for the Union.