Francis Joseph I assassinated in Egypt

In 1869 Emperor Francis Joseph I of Austria travelled outside continental Europe to attend the opening of the Suez Canal.
Suppose Francis Joseph is assassinated in Egypt. What happens?
 
Young Rudolf is Emperor-King under a Dual Regency. Depending on the composition of said council, there could be a drift toward liberal constitutionalism. The Magyars and German liberals would oppose any moves toward federalization.
 
His eldest surviving uncle on the Austrian side and the Prince of Coburg on the Hungarian? A bishop from either side? Along with the real movers of policy, Beust, Andrassy, Deak.

They would defeat the federalist plans of Hohenwart and effect a reconciliation with Prussia. They would repeal the concordat, promote Dualism, quasi-democracy and economic growth.
 
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Franz Karl (father of Franz Josef) is still alive. As he was member of Ferdinand I s regency council he might take the task again.

Empress Elisabeth might be involved in Rudolfs education too - preventing the harsh abuse by his teachers. So Rudolf could become a quite decent Ruler.

More persons for the refency Council will include (maybe) Karl Ludwig - FJs brother 36 at the time) - But only if his father does decline the post.

One memeber appointed by Austria and one by HUngary - maybe a (Arch)Bishop - I assume Joseph Othmar von Rauscher at this time Archbishop in Vienna and/or Janos Simor from The Hungarian side

Gyula Andrassy was trusted by FJ and Elisabeth - he might be part of the regency council.

Other potential memebers are Eduard Taafe (Austrian half) or Graf Beust
(common Minister of Finance)

3-5 members are likely
 
His eldest surviving uncle on the Austrian side and the Prince of Coburg on the Hungarian? A bishop from either side? Along with the real movers of policy, Beust, Andrassy, Deak.

They would defeat the federalist plans of Hohenwart and effect a reconciliation with Prussia. They would repeal the concordat, promote Dualism, quasi-democracy and economic growth.

Archduke Karl Ludwig would be certainly on the Regency council (and probably also his younger brother Ludwig Viktor, although his proclivities may be quite an obstacle). Andrassy and Beust (both Minister-President at the time) would be on the regency council. Deak is certainly a good suggestion. Albrecht of Habsburg-Teshken is another strong candidate (both as a conservative and a representative of the army, not to mention he's a relation); however he's also a fire-breather (proposed both a preventive war against Italy in 1876 and the "dash to Salonika" in 1878) who will have to be reined in. What about the Dowager Empress (Sissy)? Would she be on or not?
There must have been a decree governing the composition of the Regency council, but I was not able to find it.

There will be quite a long Regency (Rudolph is just 10 in 1869) and interestingly the first revision of the Ausgleich (1877) will have to be dealt with by the regents. Guess that the Hungarians will try and gain more concessions.
It will be a council divided along political (liberal vs. conservatives) and even more importantly ethnic (Magyar vs. German, and both vs. Slavs) lines and I don't believe it will be capable of promoting reforms: the only point on which everyone would substantially agree is the rapprochement with Prussia (and this mostly for lack of viable alternatives). Obviously a lot would depend on Karl Ludwig, who will certainly preside the council, but from what I know Karl did not have a strong character and was not much interested in politics.

Not much hope for liberalization or democratization, and even a strong economic recovery is doubtful. Poor Rudolph (who will spend his adolescence being pulled in different and contrasting directions) is not going to find a strong empire when he reaches his majority.
 
I would like to see Dowager Empress Elisabeth on the Regency council.
In this scenario, Archduke Karl Ludwig is already a Regent.
Elisabeth's physician, Doctor Palagyi speaks to Karl Ludwig: "Your Imperial Highness, I highly recommend that you include the Empress on your council of Regents. She is pining for her beloved Francis Joseph. Her health will be ruined in no time if she does not have something constructive to do. As a Regent, at least she would be participating in Rudolph's future."
Archduke Karl Ludwig contemplates Doctor Palagyi's words.
Two days later Elisabeth is made a member of the Regency council.
 
Would you think it would be so easy? In a court as obsessed with formality and protocol (the Spanisches Hofzeremoniell favored by both FJ and his mother Sophie) as the Habsburg one? Sissy would certainly make an attempt to be on the council, but if she is not included in the original regency decree (and I don't think she is) she'll fail. Sophie is still alive in 1869 and unless the death of a second son is cause enough for an early death she is still a power to be reckoned with (the more so given Karl Ludwig's weak character). Add to this that Sissy is not well loved at the Hofburg (she was considered a foreigner, an unauthorized meddler in imperial policies and a supporter of Hungarian pretensions) and that her health is still not at its best (just one year after the birth of her last daughter - who was born in Budapest btw, a decision which was not well accepted by Austrians).
 
I doubt that any woman will be IN the concil. they might be the various powers behind the council members.

Sissy will have a supporter at least in Count Andrassy.
 
"Poor Rudolph (who will spend his adolescence being pulled in different and contrasting directions) is not going to find a strong empire when he reaches his majority."

I agree with this wholeheartedly. There may indeed be "liberalization" as the German Liberals and the Magyar elites would have the upper hand. However, any reforms would be in furtherance of Germanization/Magyarization. There would be no Iron Ring and conciliation with the Czechs and this would hasten and intensify ethnic and social resentments until a full blown crisis necessitated
a change.

Rudolf would indeed face a terrible mess and I suppose he would have to bring some groups into the fold in order to continue the empire. In Austria the answer lay in placating the Poles. The Magyars were intractable and didn't honor the spirit of their nationalities law of their forced compromise with Croatia.
 
"Poor Rudolph (who will spend his adolescence being pulled in different and contrasting directions) is not going to find a strong empire when he reaches his majority."

I agree with this wholeheartedly. There may indeed be "liberalization" as the German Liberals and the Magyar elites would have the upper hand. However, any reforms would be in furtherance of Germanization/Magyarization. There would be no Iron Ring and conciliation with the Czechs and this would hasten and intensify ethnic and social resentments until a full blown crisis necessitated
a change.

Rudolf would indeed face a terrible mess and I suppose he would have to bring some groups into the fold in order to continue the empire. In Austria the answer lay in placating the Poles. The Magyars were intractable and didn't honor the spirit of their nationalities law of their forced compromise with Croatia.
It would make much more sense to make a deal with the Czech: Bohemia was economically and industrially the heartland of Cisleithania. Which is what FJ did IOTL, much later than the 1870s. It did not work: it just opened the door to a fragmentation of Cisleithania along ethnic lines and in a proliferation of parties (see the electoral results of 1907). The centralization did not work either, obviously.
If the situation in Cisleithania was messy, Transleithania was a disaster waiting to happen. The Magyars never opened the door to a power sharing with the other nationalities there: as late as in 1907, the Magyars with barely a population majority controlled 98% of the seats in the Budapest parliament.
The census of 1910 recorded 23% German speakers and 19% Hungarian speakers all over the empire (including Bosnia). The various Slavic people represented 51% of the total population.
 
Once Dowager Empress Elisabeth became a member of the council of Regents, what would be the reaction of her mother-in-law and aunt?
Would Archduchess Sophie be terribly jealous?
Please recall that Sophie could have been an Empress Consort. This would have been possible if her husband, Archduke Franz Karl had become Emperor after his brother Ferdinand I.
 
Sophie is beaten down by life's events at this point as suggested above. Sisi is not on the council, but is a cheerleader for the Magyars/very close to Andrassy.
What's to say she doesn't lose interest in her son the way she did with her husband? She hated Vienna. She liked Corfu, Ireland and wherever else she could go.
 
I imagine he would wish them well. He was a kind soul. But he may rue the exclusion of the Czechs.

He was rich too. He would leave Rudolf a huge fortune.
 
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