France wins the Franco-Prussian War.

The Franco-Prussian War defined the future of Europe and the world in various ways. Because of this war, the German Empire was born, as well as the french revenge mentality towards Germany, two things which caused WWI and, indirectly, WWII.
So, i question you:
1. Could France have won the war?
2. What would be the geopolitical consequences of a french victory?
3. What would be the cultural effects?
4. Would WWI still happen?
 
The Franco-Prussian War is a bit odd because Bismarck purposefully goaded France into declaring war. If Bismark wasn't confident that Prussia could win he probably wouldn't have picked a fight in the first place.

But win or lose, the war would still be a political victory for Bismark who's whole goal was to use everybody' fear of French aggression to drive the German states into Prussia's waiting arms. It would leave Prussia a bit weaker but I don't think it would have much impact on the unification of Germany.

The goal of the Franco-Prussian war was to make France look like the bad guy and as Bismark himself pointed out "France, the victor, would be a danger to everybody – Prussia to nobody." A French victory probably sours British-French relations a little bit and helps British-Prussian ones as they attempt to keep the balance of power.
 
The Franco-Prussian War is a bit odd because Bismarck purposefully goaded France into declaring war. If Bismark wasn't confident that Prussia could win he probably wouldn't have picked a fight in the first place.

But win or lose, the war would still be a political victory for Bismark who's whole goal was to use everybody' fear of French aggression to drive the German states into Prussia's waiting arms. It would leave Prussia a bit weaker but I don't think it would have much impact on the unification of Germany.

The goal of the Franco-Prussian war was to make France look like the bad guy and as Bismark himself pointed out "France, the victor, would be a danger to everybody – Prussia to nobody." A French victory probably sours British-French relations a little bit and helps British-Prussian ones as they attempt to keep the balance of power.
And the impact in France? In OTL, the defeat in the Franco-Prussian War resulted in the end of Napoleon III's Empire, the reestablishment of the republic aanda revanchist mentality towards Germany. What would happen to France if it had won?
 
Napoleon III wasn't going to remain in power for much longer, even with a victory, at least not in my opinion. He had already alienated so much of Europe that nobody was really going to come to his aid. I feel like he's the kind of guy who would have started feeling himself and pumped himself to make further war for more French Imperial expansion, since after all, he was now a military genius. He probably overestimates his capabilities and tries to make gains at the expense of another neighbor like Belgium or Spain, but this time is promptly slapped around by the UK, Prussia/Germany, and anyone else who would like to see France taken down a peg...again.
 
Napoleon III wasn't going to remain in power for much longer, even with a victory, at least not in my opinion. He had already alienated so much of Europe that nobody was really going to come to his aid. I feel like he's the kind of guy who would have started feeling himself and pumped himself to make further war for more French Imperial expansion, since after all, he was now a military genius. He probably overestimates his capabilities and tries to make gains at the expense of another neighbor like Belgium or Spain, but this time is promptly slapped around by the UK, Prussia/Germany, and anyone else who would like to see France taken down a peg...again.

I have a rather different take on Napoleon III and his administration, to be honest. The Liberal Empire wasn't just a propaganda peace: it was the cumilation of over a decade of real, devolution of power and loosening of state control reforms to better align his regeime with the demands of the (increasingly wealthy and influental as the effects of his trade reforms, infastructure and educational build up, ect. kicked in) urban liberal population of the Empire, and the extra latitude he had has the result of post-48 fears of Radical Republicanism and his personal popularity began to fade. He is by no means a stuffed shirt who's going to fall victim to victory disese even if his Assembly allows him to: the state of the army still needs patching up, he's never been one to actively go against British wishes (and those times he didn't go along with them, he later saw his mistake), and legitimently was trying to build up French power and prestige safely to a point where he could get the rest of Europe's concent to be the primary power-broker/Continental policeman.

It was a bit of a pipe dream, yes, and the man had an over inflated sense of France's reputation among the other courts of Europe,but he's not his Uncle the ever-conquering cannonball. Though, I suppose alot depends on the details of how he handles the peace: convening a Great Power Congress to settle the final status of "The German Question" in which Britain, Austria, Russia, ect. all feel like their interests are fairly aired and respected would be far better than tossing his sword on the metaphorical tribute scale
 
Napoleon III wasn't going to remain in power for much longer, even with a victory, at least not in my opinion. He had already alienated so much of Europe that nobody was really going to come to his aid. I feel like he's the kind of guy who would have started feeling himself and pumped himself to make further war for more French Imperial expansion, since after all, he was now a military genius. He probably overestimates his capabilities and tries to make gains at the expense of another neighbor like Belgium or Spain, but this time is promptly slapped around by the UK, Prussia/Germany, and anyone else who would like to see France taken down a peg...again.

I agree it might embolden him to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy, but Napoleon III was not long for the world. By the time of the war he was already ill, and in a timeline where he was actively ruling instead of the comfortable captivity and relatively relaxed retirement of OTL I could see him dying earlier than his historical 1973 death. In the French elections of 1869, the Bonapartists commanded a majority, albeit a reduced one, and with a victory in the Franco-Prussian war I could see their support increase, meaning that Napoleon's son would be able to succeed him. Given his youth as well as the liberal reforms of 1870, I could see a constitutional empire coming about similar to the monarchy in the UK, and I could see this sort of arrangement having longevity .

Primarily, I think the future foreign policy of the Empire would depend on the nature of the French victory. The Prime Minister of the time wasn't particularly hawkish, and if the French eke out a victory but are badly bruised I could see them being relatively peaceful for the next few years. If they win swiftly and convincingly, however, I could see them trying other foreign adventures.
 
Primarily, I think the future foreign policy of the Empire would depend on the nature of the French victory. The Prime Minister of the time wasn't particularly hawkish, and if the French eke out a victory but are badly bruised I could see them being relatively peaceful for the next few years. If they win swiftly and convincingly, however, I could see them trying other foreign adventures.

The 2nd Empire was usually pretty modest when it came to the degree they pushed their interests in Europe, though given the post Austro-Prussian War perception they had of the risk a single German hegemon posed to France's dominant position would likely mean they'd try to break/check Brandenburg's acendency for at least the immediate future. Their first concern is going to be breaking out of the diplomatic isolation that Napoleon III had convinced himself France wasen't actually in pre-FPW (Indeed, one of the reasons he was so quick to yield to the popular outrage and blow the Ems Dispatch's media coverage into cause for war was his belief that the rest of Europe would be supportive or at least not opposed to Prussia getting a black eye), which the settlement of the German Question via international mediation provides a great oppritunity to do in a not too threatening way. Reversing the marginalization of Austria from German affairs and transformation of the German Confederation brought about by the Peace of Prague would be a great start: making up with Vienna over leaving them in the lurch in 66' and givng them back one of their old spheres of influence (The Germanies) so they can accept the new status quo in Italy and not feel like they need to start encroaching on the Balkans to maintain their status as a Great Power while giving them a material motive to want to help keep Prussia down. This would allow them to continue their efforts to gain influence in the OE that started with Crimea and at least keep their opinion with Britain lukewarm by co-operating in the containing of Russia (So long as The Great Game is going on and the Czar is casting a shadow over India and China, Britain is at least going to have to at least somewhat accomidate France so as not to have both the big threats of the Continent alienated)

Going for Poland is probably overreach, but assuming a more aggressive forgien policy push in the peace I could see the French making the mistake of demanding increased rights for the Polish territories in Prussia without fully considering the consquences.
 
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