France wins the Franco-Prussian war: What does the peace settlement look like?

This is something I've been wondering about recently. I've seen many threads on a French victory in the Franco-Prussian war, but not many realistic ideas on what the peace settlement and subsequently Europe would look like. So what would Europe look like? Would France gain the left bank of the Rhine? Would we see new German states formed from the Rhineland instead? Would the Prussian annexations in 1866 be overturned? What about a Restoration of the German Confederation? Could Saxony regain its pre-1815 borders? Finally, would Austria retake its preeminent position in Germany with Prussia beaten or would France remake the Confederation of the Rhine? Please Discuss! (BTW this is assuming a devastating French victory a la Prussia).
 
The problem with this scenario is that it predicates radically different policies by both Prussia and France in the years leading up to the conflict to the point where said conflict could be the franco Prussian War in name only.

If France didn't look weak ish I don't think Bismarck would have picked a fght. And if Nappy 3 is somehow competent then he isn't Nappy III.:p


As far as terms go... France could try to nibble some of the rhineland, perhaps, but swalloing it wholesale would greatly upset the apple cart in a way that A-L never did, especially because there's likely to be no (on a weaker) United Germany to counterbalance her. I imagine Prussia would lick her wounds and seek allies- Britain and perhaps Russia could be brought on board while Austria would probably drift to France. Italy is neutral or with the Prussians.
 
Trying to answer the question asked instead of crying Unpossible.

A French victory against the combined German forces would be quite hard, so I will assume that the French managed to score some early victory against the Prussians that made the German allies a bit more cautious. (Could we also postulate the existence of a Habsburg channel to these allies? Are the Italians in enough of a crisis that Austrian hands are free? Are the French more prudent in diplomacy, so that the German allies start with less fears about the French, and more about the Prussians? Is Kulturkampf started a bit too early, and Napoléon supporting the Catholics in Rhineland and Bavaria?). For example, I seem to remember that the Kronprinz was in danger during one of the early battles, and he could have been captured by French cavalry.

So in my view, a French victory will be more against the Prussians than all of Germany, maybe in alliance with KuK, and the main French goal would be to keep the Germanies disunited as much as possible. I would expect Prussia to be somewhat broken (mostly Prussian Rhineland being reduced - to separate Prussian warmongering from Rhenish industry!). The extent of any French conquests would be at most Luxembourg (which Napoléon III wanted back in 1866) or the Prussian part of Saarland (mines!). If KuK is involved then, depending on the scale of the war, a South German confederation might be on the table.
 
France is going to war alone, there is no way Austria is helping them for many reasons.

In fact, the French doesn't even need, their regular army was larger (450,000 vs 330,000, though overall the Germans mobilized more people) and their army had better rifles and even a proto-machine gun (how effective it was I have no idea though).

A good PoD is the disorganization of the Prussian army at Spicheren working on the French favor, depending the victory the French may gain some time to assemble a larger army or even (in case of a great victory) organize a small offensive. The main point though is avoiding the two great disasters: No Sedan and the premier French army to be trapped in Metz.

For the victory... Nappy III isn't living up to his uncle, pre-1866 borders may be restored, but France wasn't going to greatly disturb the balance of power and Nappy was trying to make good relations with Britain. Annexations may be restricted to the Saar (Saarlouis was part of France until the Hundred Days, taking the whole region is just a small stretch :p) and France would put the newly restored Hanover and Bavaria under her wing, the NGC may survive or maybe there is no "German Confederation" of sorts, Austria already signed the Ausgleich, so any of sorts is going to be dominated by Prussia.
 
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What if France does not participate in Crimean war?
Is it possible then for Russia to join in with France against Prussia, to prevent creation of unified Germany?
 
Holy butterfly genocide Batman!

Also no Crimean War means the survival (for a while) of the Holy Alliance.
 
There are PoDs for the war to last longer, leading to an officer corps being more trained in line battles.
OTL they were competent and veterans but their competence was in colonial wars, so not of much use against a European army. A bit of more time weeds out the bad generals who have a nasty habit of squatting the French HQ everytime there's peace for more than 10 years.

How you could go about that: Sedan/Metz doesn't happen. The Emperor doesn't get captured, maybe because he's too sick to actually ride.
He actually was too sick to ride but he's recalled as being a man who just wanted to die, and he'd rather die in a blaze of glory rather than in a bed. So OTL is a sad twist of fate for him.

If you're willing to go back a bit, maybe France isn't as bad with its diplomacy and supports Bavaria agains Prussia.



For the terms now. I would go for some war reparations as this is fairly classic. Also, a Bourbon on the throne of Spain, as was the initial goal.

For the rest, depends on victory. You won't get a glowing victory for France, won't happen, the French are just overpowered with the German artillery and the size of the army. So no left bank of the Rhine. However, no Prussian hegemony, the dismissal of Bismarck maybe?

I doubt they'd be able to claim much more than that
 
The search tool would have given answers.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=63338

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=8833

Whatever the victory's margin (a narrow one or a crushing one), France can not annex much because Britain won't agree to it. And from 1815 on, France knew and accepted that it could not afford to turn Britain into an enemy again because it can't defeat Britain.

So France may annex Sarre and Luxemburg, but not much more.

Prussia will not lose Silesia unless Austria-Hungary joined in the war against Prussia soon enough.

However, what may be hugely butterflied is the course of german unification and of Prussia itself.

The North Germany confederation may be dissolved. Hanover may regain its independance and the prussian Rhineland may become an independant State.
 
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