As stated the best motorized Italuan division was trounced in Guadalajara.
The I-16 from 1936 wiped out Italian aviation, not Polikarpovs.
Only a useless army requires a year, incurring heavy casualties, a fortune and poison gas to refeat barefoot troops with bolt action rifles and a few MG.
Only a useless can be defeated by much smaller Greek forces and much smaller Indian forces in Libya abd IEA.
Benny never sent the best in Spain and for the Wermatch the real danger come from the Alpini that man the fortification at the border, a border were the panzer and all the trunk and IFV are a liability.
The I-16 is the Polikarpovs.
The war in Ethiopia lasted 8 months and Italy suffered around 10.000 dead (colonial troops and civilian included)...so not that high
The IEA defeat was because the place was basically isolated and unlike the commonwealth troops the italian forces cannot receive supply or reinforcements, in Lybia was because the British tank were basically invulnerable to the italian AT...both thing that doesn't apply in this situation.
The stab in back of the Russian basically deprived the Polish of the place were retreat their force and at least attempt an evacuation in Romania making their strategic situation unbearable
Regarding sping 1938 sure nobody wanted a war...and neither Germany was ready for one