France stays neutral in Word War 1

Anderman

Donor
Yeah just another WW1 what if :p

Is there any realistic chance that France would not join the war if the German Empiere didn´t attack or declares war on France ?
 
Nope, even if France somehow decided to sit the war out (betraying their alliance with Russia, giving their main rival (Germany) a free hand in Eastern Europe, and setting aside historical grievances and the aim of reclaiming Alsace-Lorraine), it was Germany that declared war on France first, not the other way around.

According to Robert K. Massie's account of the beginning of the war in his book Dreadnought, Germany's declaration of war on France was preceded by an ultimatum that was completely unacceptable to France (that France would not only renounce its alliance with Russia and declare neutrality, but also surrender its border fortresses to German occupation for the duration of the war on the Eastern front as security for the war). He also describes, after the ultimatum is rejected, that the Kaiser suggested to his cabinet that they take up a purely defensive stance on the Western front and concentrate on the East, but the cabinet insisted that it was absolutely impossible from a strategic and logistical perspective to do anything other than launch an all-out attack on France immediately upon full mobilization.

(Post-war analysis, with the benefit of hindsight, tends to support the Kaiser's position, that it likely was both possible and a better strategic move for Germany to avoid attacking France and instead concentrate on Russia; but for the purposes of this WI, it's the views of the German military decision makers that matter).
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Nope, even if France somehow decided to sit the war out (betraying their alliance with Russia, giving their main rival (Germany) a free hand in Eastern Europe, and setting aside historical grievances and the aim of reclaiming Alsace-Lorraine), it was Germany that declared war on France first, not the other way around.

According to Robert K. Massie's account of the beginning of the war in his book Dreadnought, Germany's declaration of war on France was preceded by an ultimatum that was completely unacceptable to France (that France would not only renounce its alliance with Russia and declare neutrality, but also surrender its border fortresses to German occupation for the duration of the war on the Eastern front as security for the war). He also describes, after the ultimatum is rejected, that the Kaiser suggested to his cabinet that they take up a purely defensive stance on the Western front and concentrate on the East, but the cabinet insisted that it was absolutely impossible from a strategic and logistical perspective to do anything other than launch an all-out attack on France immediately upon full mobilization.

(Post-war analysis, with the benefit of hindsight, tends to support the Kaiser's position, that it likely was both possible and a better strategic move for Germany to avoid attacking France and instead concentrate on Russia; but for the purposes of this WI, it's the views of the German military decision makers that matter).

Yep, about 0% chance. Once Russia mobilized, Germany was going to attack France. The decision is automated, much like the USSR/USA would do in a nuclear exchange. As soon as one missile is launched, both sides do full strikes.

If the German General staff realized how fragile that the Tsar's regime was, i am sure they would have had an east first plan.
 
Bit hard to stay neutral when the only plan the Germans had, the Schlieffen Plan in involved a massive invasion of France. :D
I highly doubt that was their only plan, any competent military, and the Heer of the time was, has plans for multiple circumstances, not just invade France. After all what good would invading France do if they are say, at war with Portugal (Just an example no idea why I chose this)?
 
There doesn't seem to have been any other serious plan though. Kaiser Bill asked about fighting the Russians, rather than the French and was told it was impossible because it would upset all of the carefully laid measure of The Plan.

In all my reading of WW1 history I've never come across any reference to Germany having any other major war plans, such as what to do if France stayed out of a conflict that involved Germany and Russia.
 
There doesn't seem to have been any other serious plan though. Kaiser Bill asked about fighting the Russians, rather than the French and was told it was impossible because it would upset all of the carefully laid measure of The Plan.

In all my reading of WW1 history I've never come across any reference to Germany having any other major war plans, such as what to do if France stayed out of a conflict that involved Germany and Russia.
Major war plans no, Schlieffen was the bigee but there are undoubtedly lesser plans, worst case they ad hoc something, the Heer of the time was good at staff work like this
 
There doesn't seem to have been any other serious plan though. Kaiser Bill asked about fighting the Russians, rather than the French and was told it was impossible because it would upset all of the carefully laid measure of The Plan.

In all my reading of WW1 history I've never come across any reference to Germany having any other major war plans, such as what to do if France stayed out of a conflict that involved Germany and Russia.

All studies of war plans concerning what would become the Eastern Front was dropped by Moltke probably not earlier than 1910 or so. He began concentrating on a first blow against France. There was never any definitive 'Schlieffen Plan' ever drafted in any formal sense.
 

Anderman

Donor
Thanks for the replies but i wanted to know if there is a chance that France don´t join the war if Germany didn´t attack them or send some kind of unacceptable ultimatum. So what happens when the German Empire declares War on Russia or Russia on Germany ?
 
The Kaiser's attempts to countermand the attack on France were prompted by a British offer to guarentee France's neutrality if Germany didn't attack. I don't know how Britain was planning on doing so or how successful they'd be likely to be.
 
Thanks for the replies but i wanted to know if there is a chance that France don´t join the war if Germany didn´t attack them or send some kind of unacceptable ultimatum. So what happens when the German Empire declares War on Russia or Russia on Germany ?

France is obligated by treaty to aid Russia in a war if attacked by Germany. There is NO chance of it not happening - or eventually it does happen when France and Russia will have an overwhelming advantage over German and Austria-Hungary.
 
The Kaiser's attempts to countermand the attack on France were prompted by a British offer to guarentee France's neutrality if Germany didn't attack. I don't know how Britain was planning on doing so or how successful they'd be likely to be.

Exactly what can the British do to guarantee French neutrality?
 
Exactly what can the British do to guarantee French neutrality?

Short of threatening to intervene militarily on the German side if France didn't stay neutral (which strikes me as improbable in the extreme), I have no idea. I was going off the sentence "On August 1st 1914, a British offer to guarantee French neutrality was sent out and promptly accepted by Wilhelm" in this wikipedia article, sourced to page 86 of Fritz Fischer's Germany’s Aims In the First World War.

I can't find a freely-available preview to check the citation, but poking around just now I found a couple other sources saying pretty much the same thing:
http://www.jstor.org/pss/1880196
http://books.google.com/books?id=wg...&resnum=8&ved=0CEMQ6AEwBw#v=onepage&q&f=false

According to both, the offer was made (by Britain's foreign secretary), accepted (by the Kaiser and by Germany's ambassador to Britain), then disavowed (by Britain's King George V).
 
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Short of threatening to intervene militarily on the German side if France didn't stay neutral (which strikes me as improbable in the extreme), I have no idea. I was going off the sentence "On August 1st 1914, a British offer to guarantee French neutrality was sent out and promptly accepted by Wilhelm" in this wikipedia article, sourced to page 86 of Fritz Fischer's Germany’s Aims In the First World War.

I can't find a freely-available preview to check the citation, but poking around just now I found a couple other sources saying pretty much the same thing:
http://www.jstor.org/pss/1880196
http://books.google.com/books?id=wg...&resnum=8&ved=0CEMQ6AEwBw#v=onepage&q&f=false

According to both, the offer was made (by Britain's foreign secretary), accepted (by the Kaiser and by Germany's ambassador to Britain), then disavowed (by Britain's King George V).

That's certainly interesting.
 
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