France + Oil + Bigger Population = Superpower?

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Jackson Lennock, Jun 12, 2019.

  1. Jackson Lennock Well-Known Member

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    Let's say Algeria is successfully integrated into France. The Algerians receive full rights as French citizens and thus Algeria becomes independent. I'm not sure when the best PoD for this would be (post-1900, pre-1900, I'm not sure) but let's more or less hold the rest of OTL History until ~1950 constnat.

    France retains Algeria. France opts to keep Fezzan after WWII. France also keeps Gabon, whose leaders wanted to remain French OTL, and French Congo.

    Assuming maybe 20% of Libya's oil is in Fezzan (I'm really not sure), this would mean France probably puts out, then France would probably be #12 in the world in terms of oil output.


    With all this oil wealth, France invests more in providing healthcare, economic development, and family planning in its overseas provinces. Odds are Algeria, Fezzan, Gabon, and Congo together have a population of 40 million or so. France altogether will thus have ~110million people.

    Would a France with a larger population and lots of oil be able to qualify as a Superpower?
     
  2. Rufus Shinra Statistical unlikeliness

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    Depends what you mean by "superpower". Oil output doesn't really enter into consideration, one can do without it, as OTL France did. Population... it'd need quite more than a century to get everything up to modern infrastructure and administration, supposing the most ideal case which wouldn't be realistic.
     
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  3. Jackson Lennock Well-Known Member

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    France did quite well without oil OTL, so I'm figuring that with oil they would do even better.

    By Superpower I suppose I mean something akin to the US or USSR OTL. A country with a recognized sphere of influence that's capable of acting on a global scale in multiple arenas at the same time.
     
  4. Rufus Shinra Statistical unlikeliness

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    You mean like half of Africa is a recognized French sphere of influence OTL to this day and how there are French forces deployed in Africa and the Middle-East at the same time for years?

    Your definition fits more the notion of Great Power. For France to be an actual superpower, it'd need to have taken over most of the EU as its de facto political, military and economic leader, which is extremely unlikely to happen.
     
  5. Thomas1195 Well-Known Member

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    TTL France could have a bigger economy than Germany.
     
  6. Rufus Shinra Statistical unlikeliness

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    So what? Economy doesn't necessarly mean power.
     
  7. TRH Tyrannosaurus Rex Handler

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    The significant portions of underdeveloped Africa would complicate that picture considerably, and split France's attention away from Europe. Actually, that might be an underappreciated reason for Germany's current leadership role: compared with the UK or France, they're a lot more focused on just Europe.