France Keeps Peace of Amiens Borders: How Powerful Would She Be in a Century?

IMO a lot of the Germans in the Rheinprovince were more Francophile than Francofobe,if you called some guy from Aix La Chapelle/Aachen a Nutte Pruus (dirty Prussian) then you really insulted him they had nothing with the Prussians
Prussia =/= Germany, especially prior to the 1866.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Why that ?

Why would Germany grow faster ITTL than it did OTL ?

I was assuming that there'd be no World Wars until 1950 in this TL. The World Wars appear to have hurt German fertility.

OTL, Germany’s population grew faster than France’s until WW2 but France’s population grew faster than Germany’s from WW2 on.

France’s population grew by 59% while Germany’s grew by 28% from 1945 on. The baby boom was much stronger in France.

Without a second World War, I am unsure that France would experience a baby boom.
 
Oh wow, an alternate history where the Peace of Amiens is kept? Never thought of that *cough* Shameless Plug *cough*

But from my speculation, I believe France would, as many pointed out, begin strong in Europe in 1802. German nationalism I think, began truly as a result of Napoleon's invasion and the creation of the Confederation of the Rhine. Assuming this is all butterflied away, the Germans in the Rhine wouldn't mind living under French rule.

I believe the people there were largely Francophiles, and resisted Prussian rule IOTL. Perhaps once coal is discovered, Frenchmen migrate to the Rhineland and the working class there begin to slowly assimilate into French culture. They'd probably retain their own culture, but with the two mixing into a unique blend of the two.

Germany, if it is united ITTL, will probably have a rough time economically without the coal of the Rhine. Saxony might be an alternative for them, but I don't think it'd enough to compete with the Rhine.

I think France would be a strong nation for the rest of the 19th century, but would have to ensure no rivals take her place, probably like Britain fearing the German Empire overtaking her IOTL.
 
Just look how many Alsatians served in the French Army and Governement IMO the Rheinlabers would quickly do the Same I think that the Upperclass (Nobility and Bourgois) could be assimilated very quick
 
By sluggish I mean in terms of population growth rate.

French demography might be quite different TTL. This France will likely industrialize much faster than OTL, with the coal fields of Wallonia/Rhineland to sustain it. Areas that industrialized in the XIX century experienced major population growth and that could also be true here. If you expect all of your sons to work the family land, you may not want many children to prevent it from being overly divided. But if you expect one or more to leave for the factories, you can have more kids...
 

Hecatee

Donor
On the other hand to have all your industry so close to your border might cause issues in case of war with Germany...
On another front, with such a France do we see the same drive toward Africa ? And what of Congo, if Belgium does not exist : French, Portuguese, ... ?
 
French demography might be quite different TTL. This France will likely industrialize much faster than OTL, with the coal fields of Wallonia/Rhineland to sustain it. Areas that industrialized in the XIX century experienced major population growth and that could also be true here. If you expect all of your sons to work the family land, you may not want many children to prevent it from being overly divided. But if you expect one or more to leave for the factories, you can have more kids...
France did have industries though, did the North experience any significant amount of growth compared to the rest of the population in terms of birth rates?

Oh wow, an alternate history where the Peace of Amiens is kept? Never thought of that *cough* Shameless Plug *cough*

But from my speculation, I believe France would, as many pointed out, begin strong in Europe in 1802. German nationalism I think, began truly as a result of Napoleon's invasion and the creation of the Confederation of the Rhine. Assuming this is all butterflied away, the Germans in the Rhine wouldn't mind living under French rule.

I believe the people there were largely Francophiles, and resisted Prussian rule IOTL. Perhaps once coal is discovered, Frenchmen migrate to the Rhineland and the working class there begin to slowly assimilate into French culture. They'd probably retain their own culture, but with the two mixing into a unique blend of the two.

Germany, if it is united ITTL, will probably have a rough time economically without the coal of the Rhine. Saxony might be an alternative for them, but I don't think it'd enough to compete with the Rhine.

I think France would be a strong nation for the rest of the 19th century, but would have to ensure no rivals take her place, probably like Britain fearing the German Empire overtaking her IOTL.
Rhinelanders were not Francophiles in the slightest, they were, like the Italians, pro-reform but after decades set in there is no reason to equate the revolutionary reforms with France. Also, again, Germany =/=Prussia.

If Germany is united, the Rhinelanders would agitate to become part of it.
Just look how many Alsatians served in the French Army and Governement IMO the Rheinlabers would quickly do the Same I think that the Upperclass (Nobility and Bourgois) could be assimilated very quick
Alsace was ruled since the mid 17th century, the Rhineland wasn't.
 

Hecatee

Donor
Don't forget that France had a strong tendency to crush local particularism through common education and symbols (the townhalls, stations and school design, the role of the teachers especially about language, ...) even in those changed circumstances I don't see this trend going away, be it under imperial or republican government (the IIIrd republic was quite imperial :) )
 
Don't forget that France had a strong tendency to crush local particularism through common education and symbols (the townhalls, stations and school design, the role of the teachers especially about language, ...) even in those changed circumstances I don't see this trend going away, be it under imperial or republican government (the IIIrd republic was quite imperial :) )
France ruled mostly over areas that were ruled by them for centuries.

Comparing the Rhineland to Occitania or Britanny is not really appropriate, I'd rather compare it a s mix of that and Algeria, it's not like France managed to assimilate Algeria no matter how they tried.
 

Hecatee

Donor
France ruled mostly over areas that were ruled by them for centuries.

Comparing the Rhineland to Occitania or Britanny is not really appropriate, I'd rather compare it a s mix of that and Algeria, it's not like France managed to assimilate Algeria no matter how they tried.
More than you would think, and with lesser means than would be availlable for lands in Europe itself. Beside until the 3rd republic French was only spoken by the elites in Britanny, and in other places, and it is only "l'école de la république", the "republican school", that enforced the use of French in the second half of the 19th century and early 20th century. Note that in Belgium we had the same issue, my grandfather (currently 97 years old) spoke Walloonian at home and French at school, while Flemish nationalism is largely a class issue that was expressed through language instead of communism. So integration could be possible for those newly conquered lands but might give birth to new phenomenon
 
Sort of off topic, but I'm wondering: how significant was the French speaking minority in non-oïl areas in the Kingdom of France by 1789? Would most of the urban inhabitants in Marseille, for example, be French speakers, Provençal speakers, or bilingual? I'd have to imagine pretty much all urban people have to have had some knowledge of French. Presumably rural folk would be almost entirely patois monolingual except for the clergy, nobility, and maybe whatever rural middle class existed at the time? I always sort of wondered this because The Count of Monte Cristo makes little mention of the patois (most characters being born between 1780-1810) and I feel like it's presumed that all of the Marseillais characters (many who are not born to nobility) speak French only.
 
France did have industries though, did the North experience any significant amount of growth compared to the rest of the population in terms of birth rates?

Yes. The département of Nord experienced more than 140 % growth from 1801-1901 while France overall grew by only about 30 %. It's now the most populous département in France.

France ruled mostly over areas that were ruled by them for centuries.

Comparing the Rhineland to Occitania or Britanny is not really appropriate, I'd rather compare it a s mix of that and Algeria, it's not like France managed to assimilate Algeria no matter how they tried.

France didn't actually want to assimilate the Muslim Algerians. They did not have the same rights as the pied-noirs and Jews. I would assume that Rhinelanders would be given full citizenship.
 
Yes. The département of Nord experienced more than 140 % growth from 1801-1901 while France overall grew by only about 30 %. It's now the most populous département in France.



France didn't actually want to assimilate the Muslim Algerians. They did not have the same rights as the pied-noirs and Jews. I would assume that Rhinelanders would be given full citizenship.
My question was specific to birthrates, migration obviously would be accounting for a lot of that, you argued that having Wallonia and the Rhineland would increase French birthrates, which is different from saying France would have people migrating to the region, that wouldn't increase birthrates that much.

France did want to assimilate them, they granted citizenship through lenghty process that would end up in assimilation, giving Rhinelander citizenship and attempting to assimilate them means getting something like a French Kulturkampf, not assimilation.
 
My question was specific to birthrates, migration obviously would be accounting for a lot of that, you argued that having Wallonia and the Rhineland would increase French birthrates, which is different from saying France would have people migrating to the region, that wouldn't increase birthrates that much.

France did want to assimilate them, they granted citizenship through lenghty process that would end up in assimilation, giving Rhinelander citizenship and attempting to assimilate them means getting something like a French Kulturkampf, not assimilation.

I don't have a link at hand but I've previously read that fertility was also higher in the industrial regions.

In Algeria, there was theoretically a pathway for citizenship to Muslims but few took this route and that suited the administration and pieds noirs perfectly fine, as it gave them political dominance. Contrast this with the Jewish population which was given birthright citizenship under the Crémieux law. Algeria was in practice basically an apartheid régime and this was ultimately its downfall. France was never comfortable with the idea of having the entire population holding full citizenship.

In the Rhineland, people would almost certainly be given birthright citizenship. They would be pressured to learn French in school, yes, and it's possible that there could be a backlash. But French in this era also has great international prestige, so it's hard to know for sure. Things could go in different ways: 1) as in OTL where French simply dominates over the local languages ; 2) in a way that leads to more federalism and respect for linguistic rights ; 3) political revolt by germanophones.
 
I don't have a link at hand but I've previously read that fertility was also higher in the industrial regions.

In Algeria, there was theoretically a pathway for citizenship to Muslims but few took this route and that suited the administration and pieds noirs perfectly fine, as it gave them political dominance. Contrast this with the Jewish population which was given birthright citizenship under the Crémieux law. Algeria was in practice basically an apartheid régime and this was ultimately its downfall. France was never comfortable with the idea of having the entire population holding full citizenship.

In the Rhineland, people would almost certainly be given birthright citizenship. They would be pressured to learn French in school, yes, and it's possible that there could be a backlash. But French in this era also has great international prestige, so it's hard to know for sure. Things could go in different ways: 1) as in OTL where French simply dominates over the local languages ; 2) in a way that leads to more federalism and respect for linguistic rights ; 3) political revolt by germanophones.
Well wouldn't that mean that Germans and Waloons would have higher birthrates as opposed to French people elsewhere? Not saying it wouldn't change anything, but I'm really curious whether people's behaviour would change that much.

But giving full citizenship wouldn't lead to assimilation either and that was the French goal, giving political rights to people who would be loyal, not to give it with the hope people would be assimilated later.

German also had international prestige but it didn't lead to full or fast assimilation of Poles, Czechs or others. The problem lies with the fact that over the border you have a bunch of German states using German, that was not the case for Occitan or Breton, I can see it going with a slow assimilation with some migration like Upper Silesia, but Upper Silesia didn't have over the border a states of their ethnicity alive during the period, while the Rhineland would always be neighbouring and be closer to the free and increasingly industrializing and growing Ruhr and Main basin rather than to the French core in Wallonia and Lorraine.

I think assimilation would be focused on the Saar and the Meuse basin, rather than the core of population around the Palatinate or on the other side of the Ruhr.
 
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Much depends on whether France goes on to fight all of Europe as it did in OTL's Napoleonic Wars, or if France avoids any really large wars.

It depends on whether her population growth would still be as anemic in the 19th and early 20th centuries as it was in our TL.

Part of the anaemic population growth rate had to do with how France did its revolutionary land reforms. So that part would still be there.

But the other two things that killed French population growth both had to do with the Napoleonic Wars, which devastated the economy of coastal France, strangling economies and thus the ability of the people of those regions to support families and which led to a massive loss of French lives, which meant a lack of husbands, which meant childless women, which to aftershocks in the later generations just like you see in countries that lost many during WW2.

(The other big winner if the Napoleonic Wars don't happen is the Hapsburg realm, which was absolutely devastated in OTL.)

So France could have significantly higher population growth across the board, but IMO would still grow a little slower than Germany.

Germany, if it is united ITTL, will probably have a rough time economically without the coal of the Rhine.

About half of the Rhur coalfield is on the east side of the Rhine, still in Germany.

that was not the case for Occitan or Breton

There was a state across the border that spoke Occitan - Catalonia.

I think France has enough power and enough opportunity for non-French speakers that by carrot and stick it will have no problem assimilating the Flemmings, Walloons and Franconians.

fasquardon
 
There was a state across the border that spoke Occitan - Catalonia.

I think France has enough power and enough opportunity for non-French speakers that by carrot and stick it will have no problem assimilating the Flemmings, Walloons and Franconians.
Catalonia was not independent and the language far far from being used to the extent German was, plus the geographic barriers are far bigger than the miniscule distance the Rhineland has from "free" German speaking territory.
 
Unless something major happens to turn all the peasant and tenant farmers of the newly-acquired lands into small landowners of expropriated noble and ecclesiastic lands -- which is generally singled out as one of the causes of the precipitous decline in French birthrates in the 19th century as rural families struggled for ways to keep wealth within the family under primogeniture laws -- there's no reason to believe that the rural population of these regions would follow the same trends as the rest of France.
 

TheTuck

Banned
Unless something major happens to turn all the peasant and tenant farmers of the newly-acquired lands into small landowners of expropriated noble and ecclesiastic lands -- which is generally singled out as one of the causes of the precipitous decline in French birthrates in the 19th century as rural families struggled for ways to keep wealth within the family under primogeniture laws -- there's no reason to believe that the rural population of these regions would follow the same trends as the rest of France.
Were the inheritance laws really that devastating to French demographics? I don't know much about these laws, how long were they in place?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Unless something major happens to turn all the peasant and tenant farmers of the newly-acquired lands into small landowners of expropriated noble and ecclesiastic lands -- which is generally singled out as one of the causes of the precipitous decline in French birthrates in the 19th century as rural families struggled for ways to keep wealth within the family under primogeniture laws -- there's no reason to believe that the rural population of these regions would follow the same trends as the rest of France.

So you're wondering if French Revolutionary land-tenure laws would apply to annexed Belgium and Rhineland? Probably would.
 
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