France Keeps Peace of Amiens Borders: How Powerful Would She Be in a Century?
- Thread starter TheTuck
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The Avenger
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It depends on whether her population growth would still be as anemic in the 19th and early 20th centuries as it was in our TL.
History Learner
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IIRC, the French territories lost propelled Belgium to industrialization, so this could be a major game changer.
Even just avoiding the losses of the wars would have a very positive effect. It’s quite likely that France would still be sluggish compared to Germany and Britain, but it’s starting from such a high base that it would probably remain competitive even without the extra land.
Why ?
France would be on parity with 1914 Germany in population. Belgium, Luxemburg and Rhineland would give France an equivalent coal and steel industrial base to Germany’s and Britain’s, which France lacked OTL.
This would completely change the course of history.
The Avenger
Banned
It would have a large population, but its population would grow very slowly--in contrast to the rapid population growth in Germany, Britain, et cetera.
I know. What I meant is that OTL, in 1914, France + Belgium + Rhineland = around 58 to 60 million people.
Germany without Rhineland would also be around 60 million people in 1914 (assuming the prussians and other Germans who migrated to Rhineland OTL would not ITTL).
The Avenger
Banned
Yes, but by 1950, Germany might have 80-90 million people while France would still have 60 million people.
Why that ?
Why would Germany grow faster ITTL than it did OTL ?
OTL, Germany’s population grew faster than France’s until WW2 but France’s population grew faster than Germany’s from WW2 on.
France’s population grew by 59% while Germany’s grew by 28% from 1945 on. The baby boom was much stronger in France.
TheTuck
Banned
I don't think enough will emigrate to depopulate the areas, and French birthrates wouldn't be high enough to replace them even if they did. There would need to be a major effort to assimilate them as Frenchmen, but I don't think it will work.
Deleted member 114175
The Flemings, Walloons, and Rhinelanders were all traditionally Catholic, though. And the Belgian Revolution was successful mainly because it was supported by a large French army.
There would certainly be some political conflict caused by the cultural differences, but without foreign support, this likely isn't enough to cause any real separatist revolutions.
That’s a good point.
Britain ITTL would side with the Germans for sure, though, so the narrative of “oppressed German and Dutch people” would quickly travel around the world
Ethnic nationalism doesn't automatically become a problem. It depends on the circumstances. Alsatians speak a german dialect but they're happy being French.
To be fair, Alsace has a much longer history with France than the Rhineland. Conquering a large region just before the rise of nationalism is no good news for the conqueror.
Alsatian were controlled for more than a century and are a far smaller region compared to Flanders and the Rhineland.
I don't think it will be a constant insurgency, at least at the start, but if France attempts to do what they did in Southern France in terms of assimilation it could ignite independentist sentiments.
It's kinda like the Alsatians in the German empire, they weren't against Germany per se, but the fact annexation was followed by the Kulturkampf and a very weird administrative situation, the Alsatians voted for autonomist or protest parties until the 90s when Bismark was removed from power. Although I think the Rhinelanders have even the language barrier and bigger numbers, plus religion for a minority(although I think it would be a smaller problem compared to IOTL Alsace-Germany relations).
IMO a lot of the Germans in the Rheinprovince were more Francophile than Francofobe,if you called some guy from Aix La Chapelle/Aachen a Nutte Pruus (dirty Prussian) then you really insulted him they had nothing with the Prussians