France Keeps Alsace-Lorraine but Loses its Colonies in 1871

@Matteo: You're right that it's economic and demographic growth, which lead to the German Empire overtaking France. It's a bit complicated though. France is the only continental power in Western Europe, which realistically could also have threatened the German Empire. The German Empire tried to balance minimizing potential threat and keeping France content with colonial endeavours. Then there's history, on the German side they would have remembered French aggression and expansionism in to German (which by extension means the whole Holy Roman Empire), while forgetting the duplicitous actions by many German princes; whereas France would have very different memories about the 'glory days' of Napoleon and Louis XIV, when they dominated the continent. It would not have played a large role with those in charge politically and military, but it did for nationalists on both sides, which liked to throw oil into the flames. The nationalist ideologies of those groups did clash, Alsace-Lorraine was French for French state nationalism and German for German ethnic nationalism.

I'm not so sure France, with or without Alsace-Lorraine, would have accepted the new balance of power in continental western Europe. However without territorial loss to European France, domestic and foreign support for revenge against the German Empire would have been much harder to get. At the same time Bismarck would have to face unhappy Prussian generals, concerned member states Baden and Bavaria and his least concern German nationalists. Since by not demanding a territorial exchange of France, something France had done for centuries to German lands (Alsatian is a Germanic dialect for a reason, even though France gained the region in the 17th century, before Lorraine) would have been a rather magnanimous peace treaty by the standards of the day.
Let's say France cedes French Senegal and French Cochinchina, IMHO I don't see the German Empire wanting or getting more, would France, TTL without* the loss of Alsace-Lorraine, still be determined to get these back, or would losing their dominant role in Western Europe be enough reason for a new conflict (with or without colonial loss)?

(*= edit)
 
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@Janprimus : of course there was bias and nationalist ambitions on both sides. But if one tried to go beyond bias to reach the truest assessment in the democratic ages : alsacians, although most of them spoke a germanic dialect, felt french and were lastingly opposed to being annexed by Germany. Of course, if Germany had been able to retain Alsace much longer than It did OTL, the french identity and feeling of the alsacians would have faded away and finally been reduced to almost nothing. The process had been going on from 1871 on, and especially after the kultutkampf was finished.
 
@Janprimus : of course there was bias and nationalist ambitions on both sides. But if one tried to go beyond bias to reach the truest assessment in the democratic ages : alsacians, although most of them spoke a germanic dialect, felt french and were lastingly opposed to being annexed by Germany. Of course, if Germany had been able to retain Alsace much longer than It did OTL, the french identity and feeling of the alsacians would have faded away and finally been reduced to almost nothing. The process had been going on from 1871 on, and especially after the kultutkampf was finished.
No they didn´t, or not as much as you assume. In 1874 the result were the following: 32,2% were protest votes, 19% autonomist and 44% local catholic candidates(basically what the CSU is today for Bavaria). Later with the Kulturkampf the protest votes increased but that was against the kulturkampf and the Prussian military government, not against staying in Germany(sizable % of course were). The Kulturkampf achieved nothing and it wasn´t some kind of ethnic cleansing people think, one can see that by the end of it the protest votes faded away.

But the mere idea of putting France down was the major mistake not to make.

Prussia did not make such a mistake with Austria and established great friendly relations with Austria although they had been rival and even foes for more than a century (except for the revolutionary and napoleonic wars).

Germany OTL overcame France after the war of 1870/1871 but did so through economic and demographic growth, not through putting France down. And this would have happened anyway. France was demographically stagnating. And nature and trade could provide Germany with all the resources needed in the industrial age. Both countries could have got quite well on if Germany had not kept on treating France as a defeated enemy that needed to be kept down because this made France want its revenge when the opportunity would come. The path Germany took was a path of perpetual enmity because It was not as if France had just been the agressor. Everybody knew, in the governing circles, that Prussia had planned trapping France into a war that Getmany could but win. Only France is to blame for its blindness and stupidity. But the cause of the war was Bismarck's trap to have enmity towards France cement unity between the german States, especially the south german States that were not part of the North Germany Confederacy.
Setting the German border at the Vosges and more far from the Rhine province was franky a good move, more so than taking colonies useless to them and become enemies with the UK 2 decades earlier, creating a Franco-English alliance right of the bat. If Bismark was less prudent and understood that you can´t appease France one way or another he could have taken even more land like Longwy-Briey and that would have put France and consequently Russia in a way weaker position and give Germany more resources.

Austria remained intact, as did Saxony, notwithstanding their armed opposition in 1866.

Whatever the language of the people of Alsace-Moselle, it does seem as if they identified as politically French and continued to do so throughout the German years. Alsace-Moselle's development as part of France, separate from the German states, had left too much of an imprint to be easily erase.

(One possibility: An Alsace-Moselle whose inhabitants were alienated by French rule. Perhaps this is a timeline where Alsatian Protestants are persecuted?)



This hamfistedness was inevitable. If the Prussians were going to claim a territory because they thought the territory and its population were rightfully German and had been influenced by France much too much, they are inevitably going to administer this territory in such a way as to try to maximize its Germanness. If the people disagree, well, clearly the people are wrong.

Moreover they erred in picking Austria over Russia and alienating Britain on top of that, though one cannot fully blame them for this as Russian expansionism vis a vis the Balkans was blatantly Imperialist to a degree that makes Prussia look like Switzerland.



I don't think it would guarantee Franco-German amity, either. I would think that it would be a minimum requirement for good Franco-German relations. If the Franco-Prussian War was a short sharp war that left France bruised but fundamentally intact, friendship up to and including an alliance would be possible in a way it just wasn't OTL.
No, the hamfistedness was NOT inevitable, actually it could have solved by making the province an actual duchy or something, removing the culture war and easing the Prussian military activity there. Boom you have a province with only few separatists, mostly in Metz.

You can´t really have France and Germany friends, it would require ASB stuff to undo the past history and their regional interests.
 
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I don't know where you got these figures concerning the electoral results in the reichsland of Alsace-Moselle.

The fact is that in all the federal elections that took place in Alsace-Moselle from 1874 to 1887 included, the 15 seats were all won by candidates who opposed the annexion by Germany (except one seat that they did not won in 1884). They were called protestor deputies.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alsace-Lorraine

And the other point I disagree with is the idea that Germany could have annexed more territories in 1871. Bismarck took care to avoid such a mistake because he cleverly realized that only relative moderation would avoid an internationalization of the conflict that he had managed to keep limited to a bilateral war between the german coalition and France. He knew that upsetting the balance of powers would antagonize Britain and Russia.
 
I don't know where you got these figures concerning the electoral results in the reichsland of Alsace-Moselle.

The fact is that in all the federal elections that took place in Alsace-Moselle from 1874 to 1887 included, the 15 seats were all won by candidates who opposed the annexion by Germany (except one seat that they did not won in 1884). They were called protestor deputies.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alsace-Lorraine

And the other point I disagree with is the idea that Germany could have annexed more territories in 1871. Bismarck took care to avoid such a mistake because he cleverly realized that only relative moderation would avoid an internationalization of the conflict that he had managed to keep limited to a bilateral war between the german coalition and France. He knew that upsetting the balance of powers would antagonize Britain and Russia.
As far as I understood, the French and English wikipedia group the local candidates with the autonomist and protestor votes, the German wikipedia is more detailed, I think the fact that 15 candidates were are protestor was because first past the post. EDIT: Apparently 9 of the 15 where those Catholic local candidates.


But the demand were not even contested by other powers, the Germans let the French retain Belfort because they wanted quick peace, Bismark also understood his error in not demanding more land when it was discovered of the resources there, so if the Germans wait a bit more and demand all of Alsace and Longwy I seriously don´t see how that would be contested, given the indemnity would be lower and thus the occupation of France would last even less.
 
As far as I understood, the French and English wikipedia group the local candidates with the autonomist and protestor votes, the German wikipedia is more detailed, I think the fact that 15 candidates were are protestor was because first past the post. EDIT: Apparently 9 of the 15 where those Catholic local candidates.


But the demand were not even contested by other powers, the Germans let the French retain Belfort because they wanted quick peace, Bismark also understood his error in not demanding more land when it was discovered of the resources there, so if the Germans wait a bit more and demand all of Alsace and Longwy I seriously don´t see how that would be contested, given the indemnity would be lower and thus the occupation of France would last even less.

Well, I don't speak german so I can't say. But you are mistaken on the german electoral system. Contrary to Britain or the US, the deputies to the Reichstag were not elected by the first past the post system. They were elected by absolute majority of voters in each constituency.
 
No, the hamfistedness was NOT inevitable, actually it could have solved by making the province an actual duchy or something, removing the culture war and easing the Prussian military activity there. Boom you have a province with only few separatists, mostly in Metz.

The problem, as others have noted, is that the majority of Alsace-Lorrainers insisted that they were French by nationality and that they did not want to be German. The Germans, for their part, knew this and did not care about it. Wikipedia's Alsace Lorraine article features a revealing quote from Heinrich von Treitschke: "We Germans who know Germany and France know better what is good for the Alsatians than the unfortunates themselves. In the perversion of their French life they have no exact idea of what concerns Germany."

Why would these people be given self-government, if it was likely that they would subvert it towards their non-German ends? That Alsace-Lorraine was also a strategically important territory, again as Wikipedia notes, makes it all the less likely that Alsace-Lorrainers would be allowed to do their own thing. The culture war, the Prussian military activity--both were inevitable.

You can´t really have France and Germany friends, it would require ASB stuff to undo the past history and their regional interests.

Why? We've got a Franco-German alliance now.

Let's say that the Franco-Prussian War ended in September of 1870. The Second Empire ends in revolution in the face of the defeats in the east, but the empire's armies hold, and Bismarck decides that the something not unlike the terms delivered to Austria under the Peace of Prague would be better than risking a wider and longer war. The settlement--Peace of Luxembourg, say--sees France renounce any territorial interest in the German lands to the northeast, perhaps sees the payment of a small indemnity, and that is it.

What next? Why couldn't France follow a trajectory like Austria?
 
Let's say that the Franco-Prussian War ended in September of 1870. The Second Empire ends in revolution in the face of the defeats in the east, but the empire's armies hold, and Bismarck decides that the something not unlike the terms delivered to Austria under the Peace of Prague would be better than risking a wider and longer war. The settlement--Peace of Luxembourg, say--sees France renounce any territorial interest in the German lands to the northeast, perhaps sees the payment of a small indemnity, and that is it.

What next? Why couldn't France follow a trajectory like Austria?
The war lasting longer than it did would be a possibility.

If the Emperor hadn't been trying to do a suicide by combat, he wouldn't have been captured and the war could have continued a bit longer.
Same if the ENTIRE ARMY doesn't get captured a couple weeks in the conflict. That would probably help
 
The war lasting longer than it did would be a possibility.

If the Emperor hadn't been trying to do a suicide by combat, he wouldn't have been captured and the war could have continued a bit longer.
Same if the ENTIRE ARMY doesn't get captured a couple weeks in the conflict. That would probably help

One thing that helped Austria in the final settlement, I think, is that any Prussian desire for post-war territorial expansionism did not have to be settled with Austrian territory. That was what the defeated North German states were for.

Who knows? Maybe France would have to acquiesce to Luxembourg becoming German.
 
Well, I don't speak german so I can't say. But you are mistaken on the german electoral system. Contrary to Britain or the US, the deputies to the Reichstag were not elected by the first past the post system. They were elected by absolute majority of voters in each constituency.
It just says that in 1874 only 6 were protestor candidates and 9 were regional catholic candidates. So I don´t know what that 15 figures is.

The problem, as others have noted, is that the majority of Alsace-Lorrainers insisted that they were French by nationality and that they did not want to be German. The Germans, for their part, knew this and did not care about it. Wikipedia's Alsace Lorraine article features a revealing quote from Heinrich von Treitschke: "We Germans who know Germany and France know better what is good for the Alsatians than the unfortunates themselves. In the perversion of their French life they have no exact idea of what concerns Germany."
Why should that single person´s quote matter? It´s nitpicking at its finest.

Why would these people be given self-government, if it was likely that they would subvert it towards their non-German ends? That Alsace-Lorraine was also a strategically important territory, again as Wikipedia notes, makes it all the less likely that Alsace-Lorrainers would be allowed to do their own thing. The culture war, the Prussian military activity--both were inevitable.
Is not allowing their thing, it´s giving them a proper state status either as a duchy or whatever else that is not a militarized Reichsland.

The culture war, the Prussian military activity--both were inevitable.
No they absolutely weren´t, the burden it´s on you to prove this given that historically the culture war didn´t bring anything and strenghtned the Catholic parties, so yo just need Bismark to be more clever and boom you avoid it.
Prussian military activity was also not necessary, given France and Germany didn´t really reach a tension point until later on.

Why? We've got a Franco-German alliance now.
Well, doesn´t mean anything at all, you would require all the political changes of the 2 world wars and the cold war to have that. Not simply not annexing a piece of land.

Let's say that the Franco-Prussian War ended in September of 1870. The Second Empire ends in revolution in the face of the defeats in the east, but the empire's armies hold, and Bismarck decides that the something not unlike the terms delivered to Austria under the Peace of Prague would be better than risking a wider and longer war. The settlement--Peace of Luxembourg, say--sees France renounce any territorial interest in the German lands to the northeast, perhaps sees the payment of a small indemnity, and that is it.
Won´t happen, the German need a buffer zone and Alsace and anyone expect Bismark wants it. They could only take Alsace and not Lorraine but they would absolutely want at least the former.

What next? Why couldn't France follow a trajectory like Austria?
Because Austria was desperate and because they needed Germany to counterweight Russia, France is not that desperate and there would obviously be a distrust between the 2.
 
Well, the number of all 15 protestors is also mentioned in the german version.

The presentation of 6 protestors and 9 catholics in the source you mentioned is just wrong. Elected as catholic or not, the 15 elected in 1874 were all protestors for the factual reason that the 15 of them presented a Motion to the Reichstag, demanding that the population of Alsace-Moselle who had been annexed to the new german Reich without their consent be consulted on the matter (which means a local plebiscite).
 
Well, the number of all 15 protestors is also mentioned in the german version.

The presentation of 6 protestors and 9 catholics in the source you mentioned is just wrong. Elected as catholic or not, the 15 elected in 1874 were all protestors for the factual reason that the 15 of them presented a Motion to the Reichstag, demanding that the population of Alsace-Moselle who had been annexed to the new german Reich without their consent be consulted on the matter (which means a local plebiscite).
Where can I read about this?
 
Just go to wiki. You will find the explanation about the 15 protestor deputies and their 1874 Motion.
 
Just go to wiki. You will find the explanation about the 15 protestor deputies and their 1874 Motion.
The source is quite lacking(there should probably be more information around there), I was wondering if there was literally any other source outside that.
 

Treitschke's quote matters because it accurately reflects German opinion on the Alsatians, that they were properly German but that they were not German-identifying and that they needed to be brought to their senses despite themselves. You suggest that a proper German policy would have allowed Alsace-Lorraine autonomy:

Is not allowing their thing, it´s giving them a proper state status either as a duchy or whatever else that is not a militarized Reichsland.

That unfortunately was not possible. Why would you give self-government to people you did not trust? The utter failure to give Alsace-Lorraine anything like equality with the other German federal states was not accidental, but was an active choice.

No they absolutely weren´t, the burden it´s on you to prove this given that historically the culture war

I'd like to apologize for my imprecision. I was not talking about the Kulturkampf, but rather about the campaign against French cultural influences in Alsace-Lorraine.

Also, there seems to be a contradiction between two of your points:

Prussian military activity was also not necessary, given France and Germany didn´t really reach a tension point until later on.

Won´t happen, the German need a buffer zone and Alsace and anyone expect Bismark wants it. They could only take Alsace and not Lorraine but they would absolutely want at least the former.

Either there were, or there were not, military issues at stake.

Well, doesn´t mean anything at all, you would require all the political changes of the 2 world wars and the cold war to have that.

I would note that the common perception of a shared threat was enough to get 1950s France, then a stronger power than West Germany, to abandon its remaining irredentist aspirations in the Rhineland and to kick-start the modern German alliance. Might 1870s Germany find itself similarly pressed? I wonder.
 
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