France Keeps Alsace-Lorraine but Loses its Colonies in 1871

Couldn't post-WWI Turkey have been contained with a stronger Western force, though?
It's not just a matter of force but of will.

If you take too much, the other side will fight tooth and nail for it as soon as they are back on their feet, and you might not want it bad enough, so you're at risk of losing a lot

If you take less, they'll ruminate dreams of revanchism for sure but no drastic actions
 

CaliGuy

Banned
It's not just a matter of force but of will.

If you take too much, the other side will fight tooth and nail for it as soon as they are back on their feet, and you might not want it bad enough, so you're at risk of losing a lot

If you take less, they'll ruminate dreams of revanchism for sure but no drastic actions
I doubt that France had the military capacity to take Germany on again after 1871, though; indeed, the events of 1914-1918 were only possible with both Russian and British help to France.
 
I doubt that France had the military capacity to take Germany on again after 1871, though; indeed, the events of 1914-1918 were only possible with both Russian and British help to France.
Sure France might find allies and Germany might find holding the territories is not worth the bother.

It's a common feature of colonies and asymmetrical warfare :)
 
Iron ore ... lots and lots of iron ore.
There was a lots of that in Algeria too and yet the French had to leave. The Saar was also quite important and the French left, same with the Ruhrgebiet.
A place like that will always be more important to the population of the country you took it from.

I fully get your point but basically, by agreeing to get less, you get most of what you want, minus the headaches
 
There was a lots of that in Algeria too and yet the French had to leave. The Saar was also quite important and the French left, same with the Ruhrgebiet.
A place like that will always be more important to the population of the country you took it from.

I fully get your point but basically, by agreeing to get less, you get most of what you want, minus the headaches
100% agreed, a long drawn out war could have broken the newly established empire.
 
In 1870-1871 the actions of the French francs-tireurs were met with heavy repression by the Prussian/German army. A longer war means more insurgency, more repression and more ill-will of the civilian population towards the occupiers. While not able to defeat the German army, the French could make them leave under the pressure of the other European powers.
 
Actually, the French could have fought on a long time (and possibly even achieved a draw) if the Provisional government had not been more concerned with fear of a new Revolution than with prosecuting the war against Prussia.

An Union Sacree and Levee en Masse would have seen French armies much more numerous that the German one. And the OTL Versaille army could have been used as cadres.

Basically, France through the towel too early (or too late, it could have accepted the first german peace offering which were more lenient) in 1871. A drw-out war would have favored France.
 
Actually, the French could have fought on a long time (and possibly even achieved a draw) if the Provisional government had not been more concerned with fear of a new Revolution than with prosecuting the war against Prussia.

An Union Sacree and Levee en Masse would have seen French armies much more numerous that the German one. And the OTL Versaille army could have been used as cadres.

Basically, France through the towel too early (or too late, it could have accepted the first german peace offering which were more lenient) in 1871. A drw-out war would have favored France.
Not sure I agree with you. I mean, a vague draw out of tiredness of the Germans maybe, with France still losing stuff but not much more.

The French army was absolute toast, the troups demoralised and everything. Number in this case is not all as the German could plummet any formation from a range far greater than anything the French could pull.

Gambetta tried to do that, with little success. Under-equipped, demoralised, untrained conscripts can't do much against well equipped, victorious soldiers.

I know there's always the Valmy counter example but there again, the French artillery did wonders, which it could not do there.

If the Versaillais hadn't agreed a truce, the Germans would have continued to wipe the troups. I mean, when you put a siege for several month on Paris, while waltzing to the Loire without any solid army in front of you, you have already won, especially when there's not as many colonies to draw from.
 
I agree with you on this point, Tanc49.

The french kept on fighting for a mix of reasons :

- both political reasons (the nation, the public opinion, was on a fighting mood and no new regime could be accepted and gain legitimacy by surrendering 2 after barely 3 mon this of fights),

- and military ignorance (most of the new french politician were law years, doctors, journalists, and they knew nothing about warfare in the industrial age. They kind of thought speeches and will could, through mass mobilization, the course of war while modern warfare required training and railroads to bring fresh new troops close to the frontline.

France was caught unprepared, with far less demographic potential than Prussia/Germany, the latter being able to put quickly on the field 2,5 times as many troops than the former. And It did not enjoy the kind of strategic depth that enables huge countries like Russia to trade space for time.

France's defeat in the franco-prussian war was the price of both being unprepared and blindly/stupidly rushing into the trap Bismarck had deliberately and masterfully set up.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
IIRC, lose just Alsace, not Moselle, and pay only 2 billions in indemnity, not 5.
Interesting; also, when exactly was this offer made?

Also, it's interesting that Prussia's first offer allowed France to keep some German-majority areas:

310px-Alsace-Lorraine_Dialects.png
 
Interesting; also, when exactly was this offer made?

Also, it's interesting that Prussia's first offer allowed France to keep some German-majority areas:

310px-Alsace-Lorraine_Dialects.png
Well, it was a lot about the war itself, to unite all Germany against a common enemy, and also to get a foothold west of the Rhine
 
Interesting; also, when exactly was this offer made?

Also, it's interesting that Prussia's first offer allowed France to keep some German-majority areas:

310px-Alsace-Lorraine_Dialects.png

There was no german majority area in Alsace in 1871 for the good reason that german and germanic have 2 very different meanings.

The majority of Swiss speaks a germanic dialect but you will find no swiss that accepts being called a german. Dutch, danish, swedish, english, are germanic languages but that are not german. The fact that the majority of alsacians spoken in 1871 the local germanic dialect did not make them german. No more than the fact Spain speaks a latin language close to italian and was once part of the roman empire makes spanish people italians.

As I previously explained, the pro-France and anti german annexion candidates and political parties won crushing victories in the local election and in the election for the alsacian members of the Reichstag. And then had been winning for almost 2 decades since after the annexion.

The whole assessment of this matter is that annexing Alsace-Moselle was one of the most catastrophic and costly decisions Prussia/Germany made. Germany could have had access to the lorrain and alsacian ore through peaceful trade. Germany could have put the whole blame of the war on France and have France not become an irreconcilable foe if It had just had France pay war reparations and let her keep her territorial integrity.
 
... foe if It had just had France pay war reparations and let her keep her territorial integrity.
Just a point, it's doubtful how useful reparations would have been to put France down. The OTL one was pretty major and France made a point on paying it back in a few years by loans from the population.

It's also a potential indicator of what would happen if Prussia got too hungry.
 
I disagree, taking Alsace Lorraine wasn't a mistake, and passing up the opportunity would have been politically impossible anyway. France started the war, and lost utterly; territory inevitably changes hands when that happens, not even Bismarck could resist the nationalistic and militaristic impulses. I would also point out that the Germans at this time viewed the annexation as a sort of payback for French expansionism vis a vis Germany from the Thirty Years War onto Napoleon (and Louis Napoleon), as a sort of karmic justice. That the territories were ethnically/culturally German (it's an utter mistake to compare Alsatian to Dutch, English, Scandinavian etc, the territories were much closer linguistically, geographically and politically to Germany than that, comparable to Austria and yes Switzerland whose independence owes itself less to innate non-Germanness than the presence of non-German groups and a wildly different political development ie Switzerland would be most likely after Austria to be part of an ATL Germany) and strategically and economically valuable were cherries on the cake.

The problem lay in what they did afterwards. Had the Prussians granted statehood earlier and been less hamfisted over Gemranization they would have had a much better time in A-L. Moreover they erred in picking Austria over Russia and alienating Britain on top of that, though one cannot fully blame them for this as Russian expansionism vis a vis the Balkans was blatantly Imperialist to a degree that makes Prussia look like Switzerland.

In any case seizing French colonies would have been a far graver mistake than seizing Alsace. Not only would they be useless but they would antagonize Britain and draw Germany overseas, whereas OTL Germany was able to wash her hands of Africa etc and play neutral peacemaker until the Liberals, Kaiser, and Nationalists decided to play France and Britain's ball game.

Moreover I do not think a failure to seize A-L would guarantee French amity towards Germany; although it would take the edge off their relations given the jingoistic attitudes of the day and the longstanding French position of being the premier land power and keeping Germany divided they may well have been drawn in against Germany anyway when the Austro-Russian tensions boils over. With the border that much farther west plus Germany having colonies tying her down and the loss of the A-L ore fields that match up would be even worse for Germany than the OTL Great War.
 
I disagree, taking Alsace Lorraine wasn't a mistake, and passing up the opportunity would have been politically impossible anyway. France started the war, and lost utterly; territory inevitably changes hands when that happens

Austria remained intact, as did Saxony, notwithstanding their armed opposition in 1866.

Whatever the language of the people of Alsace-Moselle, it does seem as if they identified as politically French and continued to do so throughout the German years. Alsace-Moselle's development as part of France, separate from the German states, had left too much of an imprint to be easily erase.

(One possibility: An Alsace-Moselle whose inhabitants were alienated by French rule. Perhaps this is a timeline where Alsatian Protestants are persecuted?)

The problem lay in what they did afterwards. Had the Prussians granted statehood earlier and been less hamfisted over Gemranization they would have had a much better time in A-L.

This hamfistedness was inevitable. If the Prussians were going to claim a territory because they thought the territory and its population were rightfully German and had been influenced by France much too much, they are inevitably going to administer this territory in such a way as to try to maximize its Germanness. If the people disagree, well, clearly the people are wrong.

Moreover they erred in picking Austria over Russia and alienating Britain on top of that, though one cannot fully blame them for this as Russian expansionism vis a vis the Balkans was blatantly Imperialist to a degree that makes Prussia look like Switzerland.

Moreover I do not think a failure to seize A-L would guarantee French amity towards Germany

I don't think it would guarantee Franco-German amity, either. I would think that it would be a minimum requirement for good Franco-German relations. If the Franco-Prussian War was a short sharp war that left France bruised but fundamentally intact, friendship up to and including an alliance would be possible in a way it just wasn't OTL.
 
Just a point, it's doubtful how useful reparations would have been to put France down. The OTL one was pretty major and France made a point on paying it back in a few years by loans from the population.

It's also a potential indicator of what would happen if Prussia got too hungry.

But the mere idea of putting France down was the major mistake not to make.

Prussia did not make such a mistake with Austria and established great friendly relations with Austria although they had been rival and even foes for more than a century (except for the revolutionary and napoleonic wars).

Germany OTL overcame France after the war of 1870/1871 but did so through economic and demographic growth, not through putting France down. And this would have happened anyway. France was demographically stagnating. And nature and trade could provide Germany with all the resources needed in the industrial age. Both countries could have got quite well on if Germany had not kept on treating France as a defeated enemy that needed to be kept down because this made France want its revenge when the opportunity would come. The path Germany took was a path of perpetual enmity because It was not as if France had just been the agressor. Everybody knew, in the governing circles, that Prussia had planned trapping France into a war that Getmany could but win. Only France is to blame for its blindness and stupidity. But the cause of the war was Bismarck's trap to have enmity towards France cement unity between the german States, especially the south german States that were not part of the North Germany Confederacy.
 
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