France joins War of Jenkins Ear

Pre-amble: One of my peeves on this site is that often threads get derailed by posters who want to argue the implausibility of a scenario. I don't mind (edit insert - such argument) if the scenario is approaching ASB. If you find my setup in that category, say so and exit stage left. If you find it unlikely, but possible, stick to the topic at hand and please don't derail the conversation.

The setup: France joins the War of Jenkins Ear. HRE Charles VI of Austria decides he does not want a meal of mushrooms, and lives on. Ignore the conspiracy theorists who think he was poisoned. When the British fleet is away on their ill fated trip to the Battle of Cartagena (Dec '40 -May '41 - actual fighting toward the end), France joins up with Spain.

Topic one of discussion: What realistically happens? While France and Spain navies combined are (I think) bigger than the British (especially with the losses of Cartagena), they're not exactly a mean, lean fighting machine. Remember, too, that while British navy is good, it has not yet reached the level of great. France and Spain are not sidetracked by continental adventures so they can concentrate on Britain and British colonial holdings.
I'm thinking Charles VI stays out, preferring to continue his policy of all actions are aimed at one goal - the Pragmatic Sanction.
Does Frederick not yet the Great sieze the opportunity to attack Austria while everyone else is occupied? His main reason is because he wants to, as OTL. Causus Belli can be manufactured at will.

Topic two (and one I really hope is addressed): For argument's sake, assume France and Spain achieve success. As the great timeline hypothesizes, God is a Frenchman (and since Spain's ruler started out as a Frenchman, Spain is covered under that umbrella). French/Spanish navies score enough success that troop and supply movement is not a prohibitive issue. France can move enough troops to New France to protect their portion of Acadia, and expand - Not so sure about taking Nova Scotia, but they can certainly take their claimed portion of Maine and occupy the Hudson Bay Company. Under this scenario, an invasion of Britain is plausible, IMO. So, if they have Britain on the ropes, how much can they realistically wring out of Britain? They aren't dismantling the British Empire. IMO, that falls in the approaching ASB category. For argument's sake, King George, or his heir, make peace at almost any price to prevent further catastrophe (such as a Stuart restoration).
Primarily, would the French have the foresight, or impetus, to demand a defined North American border? At minimum they're going to get (and define) Rupert's Land and Acadia/Northern Maine, as well as the St Lawrence River Basin. Is kicking the Brits out of Nova Scotia feasible? Are the French smart enough to define the Mississippi River Basin, including the Ohio River Basin? Define French land everything west of the Appalachians? The New France Wanker in me says all these things are plausible and doable. The realist in me says North America won't get much thought at the peace table while the main discussion is centered on the more profitable sugar islands and India. But, since we've had that discussion before, let's postulate that one of the negotiators says 'hey, while we're at it, let's define New France'. What is realistically definable? a caveat is that while the basics of the continental geography are known, it really isn't all that well mapped out.
Spain will, at a minimum, get Florida defined as most of southern Georgia. They'll want Gibraltar and Minorca back. They'll get at least one. How much they get, IMO, is how much they contribute to success in the war. If their main contribution is, as in OTL, not being beaten, France isn't going to negotiate too hard on their behalf. If they contribute to offensive success, they'll get more of the spoils.

Remember - to the point of POD, Britain have scored victories in destroying ports/strongholds, but don't occupy much of anything. Once France enters, British fortunes go downhill.
 

Philip

Donor
Gibraltar and Minorca will have to be occupied before Britain agrees to hand them over.

As for North America there is more flexibility. If France can occupy (a portion of) Nova Scotia along with a sugar island or two, Britain is likely to concede Nova Scotia. Of course, it's not clear that France would prefer to keep NS.

As for the Mississippi basin, I don't think NA geography is well known enough for the Europeans to agree on any thing more precise than 'Mississippi basin' and a few specific forts. Of course, that doesn't mean that they wouldn't come to such an agreement. It just means that there will be plenty of room for interpretations and disputes.
 
France kept on being keen to invade Great Britain, using one of the Jacobite pretenders. I don't see that not being in the forefront of their minds here, especially if they are doing well.
 
France kept on being keen to invade Great Britain, using one of the Jacobite pretenders. I don't see that not being in the forefront of their minds here, especially if they are doing well.
IMO, France was more keen on using the Jacobites as a disruption than actually installing them. The French disappeared pretty quick in '45. An invasion in 41-42 is the best French hope for an 'easy' victory. I can easily see the French abandoning the Stuarts/Jacobites if the Hanoverians capitulate and give in to French demands. The Hanoverians would have incentive to cave, lest they lose power. That could include coughing up Gibraltar or Minorca. Spain could trade southern Georgia as a save face measure.
 
As for Charles VI, he could reaaonably live another 5-10 years which butterflies away the WotAS as we know it. Frederick II can't go through with his invasion of Silesia as long as the Emperor is alive but he might make a move on Julich and Cleves after the Elector's death in 1742. It should be a crisis not so difficult to solve so I presume no wider wars, especially if Fleury is in in charge of France as in OTL.

As for France joining the War of Jenkins' Ear, hmm... It takes a really good POD. Like I said Fleury wasn't keen on joining any direct wars, not even when Prussian troops were nearing Vienna. But let's say he's butterflied away or the French and British Navy have some kind of a conflict. Anyway, the Cartagena expediton ends in a disaster and Vernon reportedly had a quarter of the Royal Navy under his command. Now, if the French will go for an invasion across the Channel, or at least threaten it, the Royal Navy will stay huddled around southern England knowing a combined Franco-Spanish fleet is really dangerous. But rather than risking everything on one naval battle, they could instead send Charlie with some support to start an uprising in Scotland and slowly send more help when the circumstances permit so. This way, both the British army and RN are busy and the French can send troops much more easily to Canada.

In Canada, especially Acadia there was always small-scale warfare during the first half od the 18th century (come to think of perhaps some events there could convince the French to help Spain). With enough support they could cause not only damage to British settlers in standard raids but perhaps retake Acadia and maybe even Hudson's bay ( the latter came close in in the war of spanish succession). Of course some sugar islands are also good targets.

As for Gibraltar I'm not sure it it could fall easily but Minorca is definitely a realistic goal, especially with joined Franco-Spanish forces. And an idea that just came to me...if the julich succession sparks a bigger crisis maybe the French can support Prussia in exchange for invading Hanover but this risking a lot. It depends on how the princes in the HRE will react to this and maybe it's too much for France at the time (meddling in Germany, invading Minorca and besieging Gibraltar, fighting in the Caribbean and Canada, maneuvering against the Royal Navy in the Channel and helping the Jacobites and not to mention India) I mean Spain is there to help but a possible Austrian succession crisis is looming...

But, in a little more distant future I think the British will succeed in defeating the Jacobites and probably sooner than most think. And the Royal Navy probably has better chances than the Bourbon fleet. Honestly, I think the Bourbons needed to act really fast on multiple fronts to cause panic enough in the Parliament and bring them to the negotiation table and if they were to seize anything because as time goes on the Brits will slowly start to take over. But, possible Bourbon gains could be Minorca, a sugar island or two and at most Acadia returned.

There is the option to for a direct invasion of southern England and they most likely will go for it but I can't guess how it will end.
 
As for Charles VI, he could reaaonably live another 5-10 years which butterflies away the WotAS as we know it. Frederick II can't go through with his invasion of Silesia as long as the Emperor is alive but he might make a move on Julich and Cleves after the Elector's death in 1742. It should be a crisis not so difficult to solve so I presume no wider wars, especially if Fleury is in in charge of France as in OTL.

As for France joining the War of Jenkins' Ear, hmm... It takes a really good POD. Like I said Fleury wasn't keen on joining any direct wars, not even when Prussian troops were nearing Vienna. But let's say he's butterflied away or the French and British Navy have some kind of a conflict. Anyway, the Cartagena expediton ends in a disaster and Vernon reportedly had a quarter of the Royal Navy under his command. Now, if the French will go for an invasion across the Channel, or at least threaten it, the Royal Navy will stay huddled around southern England knowing a combined Franco-Spanish fleet is really dangerous. But rather than risking everything on one naval battle, they could instead send Charlie with some support to start an uprising in Scotland and slowly send more help when the circumstances permit so. This way, both the British army and RN are busy and the French can send troops much more easily to Canada.

In Canada, especially Acadia there was always small-scale warfare during the first half od the 18th century (come to think of perhaps some events there could convince the French to help Spain). With enough support they could cause not only damage to British settlers in standard raids but perhaps retake Acadia and maybe even Hudson's bay ( the latter came close in in the war of spanish succession). Of course some sugar islands are also good targets.

As for Gibraltar I'm not sure it it could fall easily but Minorca is definitely a realistic goal, especially with joined Franco-Spanish forces. And an idea that just came to me...if the julich succession sparks a bigger crisis maybe the French can support Prussia in exchange for invading Hanover but this risking a lot. It depends on how the princes in the HRE will react to this and maybe it's too much for France at the time (meddling in Germany, invading Minorca and besieging Gibraltar, fighting in the Caribbean and Canada, maneuvering against the Royal Navy in the Channel and helping the Jacobites and not to mention India) I mean Spain is there to help but a possible Austrian succession crisis is looming...

But, in a little more distant future I think the British will succeed in defeating the Jacobites and probably sooner than most think. And the Royal Navy probably has better chances than the Bourbon fleet. Honestly, I think the Bourbons needed to act really fast on multiple fronts to cause panic enough in the Parliament and bring them to the negotiation table and if they were to seize anything because as time goes on the Brits will slowly start to take over. But, possible Bourbon gains could be Minorca, a sugar island or two and at most Acadia returned.

There is the option to for a direct invasion of southern England and they most likely will go for it but I can't guess how it will end.
This is more or less what I was thinking. Keep Britain involved at home with invasion scare while France/Spain concentrated on the colonial holdings. They won't get the big haul of anything they want, unless God is a Frenchman (but that's a wank more than realism), but they can get something. This was the strategy in the American Revolution (although they ended up getting nothing). the concentrate on the empire is a Pitt strategy, so we have to be careful about having France come up with all these innovations without the 20/20 hindsight. As you said, the mindset of the time probably has them thinking invasion.
 
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