France intervenes in Spain

In late 1938, French Prime Minister Edouard Daladier considered sending the French military into Spain in order to establish a buffer zone between the Nationalists and the French Border. The British however told the French that should they do such a thing it'd be considered a direct provocation of the Fascists and would make the Locarno Treaty null.

What if the Catalans declared independence and the French intervened on the basis of aiding the Catalans ensure their right of self-determination (using the League of Nations's mission as cover) and from there established a buffer space in the North of Spain?

I'm thinking Catalonia here ends up being comprised of Catalonia and Menorca (two Republican bastions by the end of the war).
 
Franco feared that this could happen, so he turned, after the Battle of the Ebro, against Catalonia rather than attacking again elsewhere. The Republican forces there had been battered and were hardly in shape to offer any resistance, that was also true.

However, with the Spanish government in Barcelona since October 1937, this could have ended badly if Negrín had moved to cut short the issue. There was no Catalan army worth of that name. Basically, it would have been a very silly and short issue unless the French army entered in mass and the League of Nations suddenly had the courage to take a decision about the question and Franco and Hitler bothered to take it into consideration.
 

Anchises

Banned
I think the more sensible option would have been sending advisors, weapons and other material in 1936.

In 1938 it's clear that the Nationalists will win. Sending troops to Catalonia is going to to force Franco to join the Axis.

France has fewer troops available against Germany and Fall Gelb probably becomes even more of a Catastrophy for the Allies.

Sooner or later Gibraltar falls and the fighting in Africa becomes more nasty and drawn out.

A neutral Franco is worth much more than an Independent Catalonia.
 
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