So, I thought about doing an alternate history about Paris Commune because it is an interesting event that I feel is sometimes overlooked. It is significant to the point that Karl Marx described it as an example of a working-class (proletarian) revolution and had influence in future communist movements in Russia (Bolsheviks) and other countries like Germany, China and etc., despite the fact that trying to implement Marxist ideas led to the cost of millions of lives in the 20th century. Also, due to the fact that the revolutionary government in Paris only lasted 2 months (from 28 March to 28 May 1871) before being supressed by the forces loyal to the Third French Republic I wondered what must be different from OTL in order for Commune to succeed not only in strengthening its position but also in spreading revolutions all across France? And what impact it would have on Europe? How neighbouring countries would react? I am new to this website so I decided to give my first try in alternate history and I am interested in hearing your thoughts and comments.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Commune#War_with_the_national_government
https://www.britannica.com/event/Commune-of-Paris-1871
https://www.clausewitz.com/readings/Jacobsen-TheWarOfTheCommune14.htm
After having escaped from Paris on 18 March, Adolphe Tiers ordered regular army to withdraw to Versailles, to gather its forces, and then, when it was ready, to recapture the city. Then, on 26 March, municipal elections in Prais, organized by the Central Committee of the National Guard (which were composed of working-class people influenced by radical ideas), resulted in victory for the revolutionaries, who formed the Commune government.
Point of Divergence: Meanwhile, Otto von Bismarck, although alarmed at the events in Paris and being concerned that radical revolutions might occur in Germany, has an idea of using chaos that erupted in France to gain more influence and plans for eventual domination of the disunited country. This belief is further reinforced by the fact that most of the factions in the Commune are political radicals like Proudhonists (anarchists), Blanquists (socialists), intellectuals, foreign exiles and women who all wanted to abolish France as a state and form a sort of federation of autonomous communities administered by several Communes in every major French city. So, in Bismarck‘s eyes, France would become weak and disorganized and a decision is made to (kind of) indirectly support the Commune by concentrating on defeating loyalist forces.
Knowing that French governmental army composed of 60,000 troops along with Tiere himself has withdrawn to Versailles, a German army of 100,000 men is sent to assault the Palace on 28 March. The breaking of Armistice of Versailles is seen with surprise and shock all across France. Most of the army units stationed near major cities are immediatly called to Versailles to relieve the forces trapped there. However, it was too late as Versaille was finally captured the next day after German troops stormed the palace and Tiers was taken prisoner. All 60,000 French troops died fighting to the last man while German suffered losses of almost 10,000 men. Most of French reinforcements were defeated at several battles in several locations like Orleans and Rouen. The governmental forces were severely weakened that they could not stand against both Germans and Communard insurgents who see the perfect opportunity to seize control of the cities while being suspicious of Germany (Louise Michel preached resistance to Germans) as many loyalist troops have left to fight the German surprise attack. This results in Communard revolutions from 29 March to 5 April in cities of Marseille, Lyon, Saint-Etienne, Toulouse, Narbonne, Le Creusot and Limoges.
Defeated by the end of April with most of the forces killed or captured by Germans or French Communards, the remnants of the government and the French Army flee to other French colonies (mostly French Algeria) or other countries like Britain and Russia.
By this time (the start of May 1871), revolutionary and socialist groups have succesfully established communes all over France with municipal elections being held. The communes are composed of radical-left politicians some of whom belong to the First International and supported by the working-class. Large ceremonies and parades by the National Guard are held the next day after the elections of 1 May in front of governmental buildings decorated with red flags where many Communards celebrate the victory.
Meanwhile in Berlin, Otto von Bismarck receives the news from the war zone that French Republic was defeated with Tiers captured and that socialist-anarchist revolution succeeded all over France. Believing that Communards are still weak, disorganized and had not yet strengthened their positions, the Iron Chancellor decides it is time to prepare for the assault on French cities. It seems that Germany wouldn‘t have any problem if they move quickly.
However, another revolution is gonna shake Europe.
To be continued
