France in an Axis victory

[VenusUberAlles]

What were the actual plans both Italy and Germany had for France in the event of an Axis victory (assume Britain is knocked out of the war)? The territory France loses to the Axis powers seems to alternate between Germany owning the north half of France and Italy owning the entire Alps region plus most of French North Africa to Germany just gaining Alsace Lorraine and Italy gaining Tunisia. From what I understand, Germany never really wanted more than Alsace Lorraine from France (they preferred to focus on eastern expansion) and Italy wanted Tunisia, Savoy, Nice and Corsica. Were these goals realistic?

What would be the treatment of France after the war is won? Will Germany try to cripple France permanently like France tried to do in WW1 and 2, or would they rather have France as a strong but obedient ally, like a larger Vichy France? The French seemed to be at least somewhat obedient during the occupation. I've heard some people on this site say that Germany will essentially block Italy from annexing any mainland territory to keep France friendly.

Will France be able to gain any territory in an Axis victory? Hitler spoke about carving apart Switzerland, would France have been permitted to take some French-speaking parts possibly as compensation for Alsace Lorraine?

Basically, what happens to France if the Axis win the war.

 

[Vrykon]

What were the actual plans both Italy and Germany had for France in the event of an Axis victory (assume Britain is knocked out of the war)? The territory France loses to the Axis powers seems to alternate between Germany owning the north half of France and Italy owning the entire Alps region plus most of French North Africa to Germany just gaining Alsace Lorraine and Italy gaining Tunisia. From what I understand, Germany never really wanted more than Alsace Lorraine from France (they preferred to focus on eastern expansion) and Italy wanted Tunisia, Savoy, Nice and Corsica. Were these goals realistic?

It's very, very, very unlikely for Germany to annex the northern half of France. That's a misconception I see based on the "occupied zone/free zone" divide following the 1940 Armistice. German troops were only stationed in the northern half. Pétain's government moved to Vichy as it was a town in the free zone with many hotels suitable to host the government and national assembly, to give the impression that Germans could not interfere in their affairs. And they administered all the country.

I'm not sure if the Germans proclaimed they were formally annexing Alsace-Lorraine or rather if they acted as if it was always theirs. There was also a large buffer zone roughly comprising the Lorraine and Franche-Comté regions were French refugees were forbidden to return. I've read that Germany planned to colonize these zones, or that it would become an SS-controlled Burgundy state under Léon Degrelle. I think either are unlikely if Germany is even remotely successful in the east. They would be hard-pressed to keep order here, while a vassal France would be very quiet in comparison.
I think the most likely outcome assuming a costly war in the east would be that Germany demands that the "Burgundy" area be demilitarized like the Rhineland was, and they would no doubt keep the Antlantic wall manned and have several military bases on French territory to guard against Britain.


As for Italy, they had done very little in the war against France. In 1940 there were only minor territorial changes in the Alps. Mussolini could get Tunisia and possibly Djibouti in a Vienna Dictate, but Corsica, Nice and Savoy would be much harder to pull off. Perhaps if Hitler demands the German-speaking parts of Tyrol, otherwise I don't think he would bother to do this for Mussolini.
I don't think Mussolini had any designs over Algeria and Morocco, but he could get military bases here.

What would be the treatment of France after the war is won? Will Germany try to cripple France permanently like France tried to do in WW1 and 2, or would they rather have France as a strong but obedient ally, like a larger Vichy France? The French seemed to be at least somewhat obedient during the occupation. I've heard some people on this site say that Germany will essentially block Italy from annexing any mainland territory to keep France friendly.

Will France be able to gain any territory in an Axis victory? Hitler spoke about carving apart Switzerland, would France have been permitted to take some French-speaking parts possibly as compensation for Alsace Lorraine?

Basically, what happens to France if the Axis win the war.

The armistice terms stated that the French army could not exceed 100 000 men (at least on the mainland, not sure about colonies) and pay for the costs of the occupation which were huge, so yes essentially France is crippled as a military power and economically at least in the short term.
Dividing Switzerland is the only way I can see the French get any territory. These parts could also go to Italy, or Germany could just decide to forcibly assimilate the residents as they did in Alsace-Lorraine.
I think either way industrialized Wallonia would remain a German puppet, and give them a claim on the resource-rich Congo.

 

[VenusUberAlles]

There was also a large buffer zone roughly comprising the Lorraine and Franche-Comté regions were French refugees were forbidden to return. I've read that Germany planned to colonize these zones, or that it would become an SS-controlled Burgundy state under Léon Degrelle.

I've read that too. The SS State of Burgundy seems more of an SS fantasy than actual policy.

As for Italy, they had done very little in the war against France. In 1940 there were only minor territorial changes in the Alps. Mussolini could get Tunisia and possibly Djibouti in a Vienna Dictate, but Corsica, Nice and Savoy would be much harder to pull off. Perhaps if Hitler demands the German-speaking parts of Tyrol, otherwise I don't think he would bother to do this for Mussolini.
I don't think Mussolini had any designs over Algeria and Morocco, but he could get military bases here.

How important were Nice, Savoy and Corsica to Italy and France? Alsace Lorraine, for example, was a major source of steel and coal. How badly did Italy want these territories, and how mad would France be if they lost them? And what would happen to French Syria?

Dividing Switzerland is the only way I can see the French get any territory. These parts could also go to Italy, or Germany could just decide to forcibly assimilate the residents as they did in Alsace-Lorraine.

Would some British African colonies like Gambia, Sierra Leone or Ghana be on the table? These places represent important naval bases for the British in the Atlantic (especially now that the Mediterranean is in Axis hands) so would France be able to annex some of them?

I think either way industrialized Wallonia would remain a German puppet, and give them a claim on the resource-rich Congo.

Wallonia was part of Reichskommissariat Belegian Nordfrankreich.

Would France regain the parts of this Reichskommissariat that belonged to them, or would this Wallonia puppet state keep it?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

It does not appear to me the German government had any coherent plan. The Armistice terms we're originally to be temporary, but the inability to force Britain to ask for terms caused any further negotiations to be postponed indefinitely.

 

[Max Sinister]

No coherent plan indeed.

 

[VenusUberAlles]

It does not appear to me the German government had any coherent plan. The Armistice terms we're originally to be temporary, but the inability to force Britain to ask for terms caused any further negotiations to be postponed indefinitely.

No coherent plan indeed.

Well, what would have made sense for them to do? Should the Axis take as little territory as possible to have a strong fascist France or would they try to destroy France permanently?

 

[Drewbdu]

I am led to believe that Germany would annex the so called Zone Interdite, regardless of the French reaction. I’m primarily led to believe this because it is all we have to go off of in terms of colonization plans and the like. Because there was no coherent plan, there is no way to know for certain what their plans would have become.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Well, what would have made sense for them to do? Should the Axis take as little territory as possible to have a strong fascist France or would they try to destroy France permanently?

Probably neither extreme; the post-war treatment of France is going to be jury-rigged and, while it has the potential to fly off in one direction, its more likely the iron law of averages and pragmatic decision-making (especially since the wilder fantasies have plenty of room to get played out in the east) will result in terms for France that, while lenient and suitable for making her an economically productive and complacent member of the New Order, also limits her power projection to the point that she won't be able to contest that order. I'm personally of the belief this means she loses A/E-L and the Flemish regions to Germany and her puppets and concedes Tunisia and Djibouti to Italy in exchange for compensation from Britain's African Empire (Ideally, territory which would result in as many colonies as possible for everybody being in large blocs that can be most efficently set up to be economically productive/easy to administer and create infrastructure through to limit revolt and provide a steady, profitable stream of raw materials that will allow a growing European industry to be self-sufficent in terms of inputs). Limits are probably kept on its navy and air force while being lifted on the Army (Which is the best tool for policing its Empire and manning the defenses required to deter any potential power-plays from across the Atlantic or potentially a resurgent Britain) and tied into the greater Axis economy via currency union, mandated infrastructural investment, ect.

 

[VenusUberAlles]

I am led to believe that Germany would annex the so called Zone Interdite, regardless of the French reaction. I’m primarily led to believe this because it is all we have to go off of in terms of colonization plans and the like. Because there was no coherent plan, there is no way to know for certain what their plans would have become.

That plan was abandoned once Barbarossa kicked off. Colonisation efforts would have been focuses eastward.

Probably neither extreme; the post-war treatment of France is going to be jury-rigged and, while it has the potential to fly off in one direction, its more likely the iron law of averages and pragmatic decision-making (especially since the wilder fantasies have plenty of room to get played out in the east) will result in terms for France that, while lenient and suitable for making her an economically productive and complacent member of the New Order, also limits her power projection to the point that she won't be able to contest that order. I'm personally of the belief this means she loses A/E-L and the Flemish regions to Germany and her puppets and concedes Tunisia and Djibouti to Italy in exchange for compensation from Britain's African Empire (Ideally, territory which would result in as many colonies as possible for everybody being in large blocs that can be most efficently set up to be economically productive/easy to administer and create infrastructure through to limit revolt and provide a steady, profitable stream of raw materials that will allow a growing European industry to be self-sufficent in terms of inputs). Limits are probably kept on its navy and air force while being lifted on the Army (Which is the best tool for policing its Empire and manning the defenses required to deter any potential power-plays from across the Atlantic or potentially a resurgent Britain) and tied into the greater Axis economy via currency union, mandated infrastructural investment, ect.

So France would get Gambia, Sierra Leone and Ghana to create a more continuous African bloc?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

... Tunisia and Djibouti to Italy in exchange for compensation from Britain's African Empire ...

I wonder how Britain will be defeated badly enough to be forced to give up colonies?

 

[VenusUberAlles]

I wonder how Britain will be defeated badly enough to be forced to give up colonies?

The West African colonies aren't exactly the most important colonies in the British Empire. Sierra Leone was never prosperous and they offered to give up Gambia at one point. Ghana is the only colony there that matters.

 

[Max Sinister]

An independent Brittany would make sense too. More sense than e.g. Gascony or Normandy.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

What were the actual plans both Italy and Germany had for France in the event of an Axis victory (assume Britain is knocked out of the war)? The territory France loses to the Axis powers seems to alternate between Germany owning the north half of France and Italy owning the entire Alps region plus most of French North Africa to Germany just gaining Alsace Lorraine and Italy gaining Tunisia. From what I understand, Germany never really wanted more than Alsace Lorraine from France (they preferred to focus on eastern expansion) and Italy wanted Tunisia, Savoy, Nice and Corsica. Were these goals realistic?

What would be the treatment of France after the war is won? Will Germany try to cripple France permanently like France tried to do in WW1 and 2, or would they rather have France as a strong but obedient ally, like a larger Vichy France? The French seemed to be at least somewhat obedient during the occupation. I've heard some people on this site say that Germany will essentially block Italy from annexing any mainland territory to keep France friendly.

Will France be able to gain any territory in an Axis victory? Hitler spoke about carving apart Switzerland, would France have been permitted to take some French-speaking parts possibly as compensation for Alsace Lorraine?

Basically, what happens to France if the Axis win the war.

Depends on how Britain is knocked out of the war. Does Vichy actually join the Axis and take active part in the fighting? That would do it and alter the final deal with Germany.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

I wonder how Britain will be defeated badly enough to be forced to give up colonies?

I'm not certain, but considering the OP says "Britain is knocked out of the war" and this scenario is good enough for the Axis to be classified as a victory situation, I assume things have gotten bad enough for Old Blighty that she's willing to make a few colonial concessions. If things haven't even reached that point yet, then I hesitate to say we're really in a situation where Britain is going to be agreeing to end the war with Germany at all, in which case we're still in the "preliminary" half-occupied phase of Vichy France

An independent Brittany would make sense too. More sense than e.g. Gascony or Normandy.

Is there any particular reason you think they'd be keen on Balkanizing France at at all? All that does is breed resentment and limit's France's ability to carry her own economic and military weight in the long term, necessitating Germany needing to (unessicerily) pump resources into the West

 

[Anchises]

I see two basic approaches:

The Werner Best route:

With a loose control over the french bureaucracy but strong endorsement of seperatism. Best believed that it was in Germanies best interest to promote regional identities in France.

In practice this probably means that the Germans do their best to diverge power towards the provinces, with the longterm goal of establishing smaller more managable regional states.

The New European Order:

Even if Germany wins early (1941/42) losses will be huge and occupying the land will be expensive.

This is going to necessitate french cooperation. So Petain's regime is probably propped up. Ceding A-L, reparations, military basing rights and troops for the East, will convince Germany to end the occupation and to give Vichy France "sovereignity", in the new military and political fascist order.

France will become a junior partner in the Fascist Alliance, probably quickly overtaking Italy in terms of importance.

I don't want to think about TTLs Algerian War...

 

[Vrykon]

How important were Nice, Savoy and Corsica to Italy and France? Alsace Lorraine, for example, was a major source of steel and coal. How badly did Italy want these territories, and how mad would France be if they lost them? And what would happen to French Syria?

Not important in terms of resources. Nice is a medium-sized town, and I wager it's more populous than all of Savoy put together.
Corsica is a bigger fish. It used to be a Genoa dependency and the local language (which has been repressed by the French) is a dialect of Italian. Italian irredentism probably has a better claim here than in Nice, though I don't think they had much support from the local population OTL during ww2.
Corsica is also the birthplace of Napoleon. Loosing it would piss a lot of people off if only for that, especially considering Italy did basically nothing of note during the Battle of France. Maybe more so than Alsace-Lorraine.
On the other hand Napoleon wasn't very popular in the hard-right; one of the main highly influential movements supporting the Vichy regime at the time was Action Francaise, the pro-house of Orléans royalists, so that may well end the bonapartist claim completely and utterly.

I think unless Italy actually conquers it during the Battle of France, or if Hilter imposes it to the French so he can get Tyrol from Mussolini, the Italians are unlikely to get it.

Would some British African colonies like Gambia, Sierra Leone or Ghana be on the table? These places represent important naval bases for the British in the Atlantic (especially now that the Mediterranean is in Axis hands) so would France be able to annex some of them?

I would think that unless Britain was served a vegetarian with sarin sauce they weren't going to lose any territory especially to the French. The only thing the French could get are excuses and pocket change for Mers-el-Kebir.

Wallonia was part of Reichskommissariat Belegian Nordfrankreich.

Would France regain the parts of this Reichskommissariat that belonged to them, or would this Wallonia puppet state keep it?

I think in 1944 that area was divided between the Flanders and Wallonia puppet states, so yeah Wallonia would probably keep it. Dunkirk is also historically Flemish.

An independent Brittany would make sense too. More sense than e.g. Gascony or Normandy.

There was a only a 4000ish member strong Breton National (Socialist) party that called for independence, with its own militia (the bagadou stourm) but if memory serves one of the leaders was arrested by the Germans for attacking a French policeman stumbling on their camp. Don't think it'll happen.
However the Germans built a large naval base at Brest (it still stands), so they'd probably keep it as an outlet on the Atlantic.

 

[thaddeus]

best case for Vichy regime Germany withdraws to (a re-oriented) Maginot Line


but that was not unbroken line along the north? so it would be some type of DMZ. likely a puppet Dutch State wants the traditional Flemish areas too?

possibly in victory scenario they would construct u-boat bases in Norway and Flanders?