So, as it says on the tin, how would France fare in an Axis Victory scenario?
Now, there are some obvious predictions one can make.
The occupied zone would be handed over to the État Française (which considered Paris to be it's capital in OTL, at least de-jure), except for Elsace-Lorraine (which actually wasn't part of the occupied zone in OTL as Germany tranformed Elsace-Lorraine into a CdZ-Territory, which was to be annexed into the Greater German Reich as part of Reichsgau Westmark after the war. The establishment of a german civilian administration on french territory was a violation of the armistice of june 22.).
France would become a german satelite state, and would be integrated into the "Großraum Europa" (the planned german-dominated free trade zone). France would import huge amounts of german capital and commodities, making the country completely dependent on Germany economically. Leftist parties and all trade unions (with the possible exception of a state-sanctioned pseudo-trade union federation, like the Deutsche Arbeitsfront) would remain banned, and without any legal means for class struggle, workers rights would be next to non-existent in France. Expect an abolition of maximum working hours and minimum wages, and a re-legalization of sunday and child labour (for anyone who thinks this goes to far, that's exactly what the Nazis did in Germany in OTL. And now immagine the situation in a german satelite state like France). Just because of this alone, living standarts in France would be a lot lower than in OTL. Add to that the fact that, again, France would be completely dependent on Germany economically, and it's not hard to see why this TL's France would not be a pleasant place to live in. Of course illegal strikes could (and, to some extend, likely would) still take place, however the french authorities would suppress them with utmost violence (that's the way fascist regimes usually handle strikes). So, as long as the country doesn't erupt into all out revolution, the impact of illegal unions is unlikely to be that large. With less buying power, economic crises would take place more often and would be more devastating. However, in this TL, that's not just a french but a european phenomena (since all of Europe is controlled by fascist regimes and the various countries are part of the aforementioned german-dominated free-trade zone).
Obviously Wehrmacht units would continue to be stationed in France after the war. The armistice of june 22. capped the size of the French Army in Europe at just under 100.000. Though a formal peace treaty would be signed after the end of the war in this scenario, I don't see any reason why Germany wouldn't uphold this limitation.
When it comes to the form of government, France would remain under a fascist regime. However the concrete pollitical superstructure of the État Française differed quite massively from that of fascist Germany or Italy. It was not a one party state, in fact multiple parties existed and operated legally. However all of the legal parties were reactionary, with all progressive parties beeing banned. There were no elections, as elective bodies were replaced by nominated ones. The "municipalities" and the departmental commissions were thus placed under the authority of the administration and of the prefects (nominated by and dependent on the executive power). In January 1941 the Conseil National (National Council), composed of notables from the countryside and the provinces, was instituted under the same conditions. Furthermore, under the French Constitutional Law of 1940, the head of state (more specifically, Phillipe Pétain) had been given near-absolute powers in all affairs of state, including the right to apoint his own successor. This form of government would remain in place in the foreseeable future, though it is also possible that a one-party state is eventually created.
The impact this TL would have on french culture is hard to predict. The Pétain regime was fairly popular before the free zone was occupied by Germany in 1942, so it's reasonable to assume that much of the populace would embrace the regimes morale values. France would be more socially conservative. The traditional family model would be dominant, with the womens liberation movement beeing repressed. Catholicism would play a much more important role in french society, and racism would be a lot more widespread than in OTL. Anti-semitism in particular would play an important role in pollitics and fanatical anti-communism would also remain one of the main ideological cornerstones of the État Française. Joan of Arc would continue to be the symbol of France, replacing Marianne. Anti-british sentiment would also remain widespread. Sports was heavily promoted in the État Française in OTL in a similiar fashion as it was in Nazi Germany (with sports beeing transformed into a kind of military drill, an action that was heavily supported by the army). Expect France to be one of the leading nations in the olympics in this TL.
Now to Free France and the colonies. In my opinion, the remaining colonies held by the free french would eventually surrender. The french ruling class in France proper would want their colonies back badly, while large parts of the french colonial ruling class (beeing dependent on economic ties with the homeland) would also back down eventually. The breakaway french colonies only fought on because they hoped that the war might turn against Germany eventually (which proved to be right in the end). In this TL, liberation is not going to happen. And large parts of the local elite would rather be part of France (even if it is a fascist pupet of Germany), than be some lost breakaway state that is barely able to keep it's colonial subjects down. Overall, the Free French forces might fight on for a couple of months or even years after the end of the war, but eventually they'd see the writing on the wall. If the État Française grants them and their backers amnesty and leaves the local ruling class in power, I could see them laying down arms quite smoothly. If the Vichy government decides to crush them, in order to not loose their face by negotiating with "traitors" (and also because some of the ruling ones in France proper might want to take the riches of Africa for themselves), the whole thing will be prolonged and brutal. Eventually, with german support, the Vichy government would crush the remainders of Free France, at least in Africa. What happens to Syria, Lebanon and Indochina (I doubt that the US would just return the later to a satelite of their main imperialist rival) is uncertain.
So, these are my predictions for France in an Axis Victory scenario. They're incomplete and are only scratching on the surface, so I'd like to know what you think. How wluld France fare, had the Axis won WW2?
Now, there are some obvious predictions one can make.
The occupied zone would be handed over to the État Française (which considered Paris to be it's capital in OTL, at least de-jure), except for Elsace-Lorraine (which actually wasn't part of the occupied zone in OTL as Germany tranformed Elsace-Lorraine into a CdZ-Territory, which was to be annexed into the Greater German Reich as part of Reichsgau Westmark after the war. The establishment of a german civilian administration on french territory was a violation of the armistice of june 22.).
France would become a german satelite state, and would be integrated into the "Großraum Europa" (the planned german-dominated free trade zone). France would import huge amounts of german capital and commodities, making the country completely dependent on Germany economically. Leftist parties and all trade unions (with the possible exception of a state-sanctioned pseudo-trade union federation, like the Deutsche Arbeitsfront) would remain banned, and without any legal means for class struggle, workers rights would be next to non-existent in France. Expect an abolition of maximum working hours and minimum wages, and a re-legalization of sunday and child labour (for anyone who thinks this goes to far, that's exactly what the Nazis did in Germany in OTL. And now immagine the situation in a german satelite state like France). Just because of this alone, living standarts in France would be a lot lower than in OTL. Add to that the fact that, again, France would be completely dependent on Germany economically, and it's not hard to see why this TL's France would not be a pleasant place to live in. Of course illegal strikes could (and, to some extend, likely would) still take place, however the french authorities would suppress them with utmost violence (that's the way fascist regimes usually handle strikes). So, as long as the country doesn't erupt into all out revolution, the impact of illegal unions is unlikely to be that large. With less buying power, economic crises would take place more often and would be more devastating. However, in this TL, that's not just a french but a european phenomena (since all of Europe is controlled by fascist regimes and the various countries are part of the aforementioned german-dominated free-trade zone).
Obviously Wehrmacht units would continue to be stationed in France after the war. The armistice of june 22. capped the size of the French Army in Europe at just under 100.000. Though a formal peace treaty would be signed after the end of the war in this scenario, I don't see any reason why Germany wouldn't uphold this limitation.
When it comes to the form of government, France would remain under a fascist regime. However the concrete pollitical superstructure of the État Française differed quite massively from that of fascist Germany or Italy. It was not a one party state, in fact multiple parties existed and operated legally. However all of the legal parties were reactionary, with all progressive parties beeing banned. There were no elections, as elective bodies were replaced by nominated ones. The "municipalities" and the departmental commissions were thus placed under the authority of the administration and of the prefects (nominated by and dependent on the executive power). In January 1941 the Conseil National (National Council), composed of notables from the countryside and the provinces, was instituted under the same conditions. Furthermore, under the French Constitutional Law of 1940, the head of state (more specifically, Phillipe Pétain) had been given near-absolute powers in all affairs of state, including the right to apoint his own successor. This form of government would remain in place in the foreseeable future, though it is also possible that a one-party state is eventually created.
The impact this TL would have on french culture is hard to predict. The Pétain regime was fairly popular before the free zone was occupied by Germany in 1942, so it's reasonable to assume that much of the populace would embrace the regimes morale values. France would be more socially conservative. The traditional family model would be dominant, with the womens liberation movement beeing repressed. Catholicism would play a much more important role in french society, and racism would be a lot more widespread than in OTL. Anti-semitism in particular would play an important role in pollitics and fanatical anti-communism would also remain one of the main ideological cornerstones of the État Française. Joan of Arc would continue to be the symbol of France, replacing Marianne. Anti-british sentiment would also remain widespread. Sports was heavily promoted in the État Française in OTL in a similiar fashion as it was in Nazi Germany (with sports beeing transformed into a kind of military drill, an action that was heavily supported by the army). Expect France to be one of the leading nations in the olympics in this TL.
Now to Free France and the colonies. In my opinion, the remaining colonies held by the free french would eventually surrender. The french ruling class in France proper would want their colonies back badly, while large parts of the french colonial ruling class (beeing dependent on economic ties with the homeland) would also back down eventually. The breakaway french colonies only fought on because they hoped that the war might turn against Germany eventually (which proved to be right in the end). In this TL, liberation is not going to happen. And large parts of the local elite would rather be part of France (even if it is a fascist pupet of Germany), than be some lost breakaway state that is barely able to keep it's colonial subjects down. Overall, the Free French forces might fight on for a couple of months or even years after the end of the war, but eventually they'd see the writing on the wall. If the État Française grants them and their backers amnesty and leaves the local ruling class in power, I could see them laying down arms quite smoothly. If the Vichy government decides to crush them, in order to not loose their face by negotiating with "traitors" (and also because some of the ruling ones in France proper might want to take the riches of Africa for themselves), the whole thing will be prolonged and brutal. Eventually, with german support, the Vichy government would crush the remainders of Free France, at least in Africa. What happens to Syria, Lebanon and Indochina (I doubt that the US would just return the later to a satelite of their main imperialist rival) is uncertain.
So, these are my predictions for France in an Axis Victory scenario. They're incomplete and are only scratching on the surface, so I'd like to know what you think. How wluld France fare, had the Axis won WW2?
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