What if during the Franco-Prussian War the Germans had been unable to capture Metz and France after the war retained Metz and the surrounding area (Gravelotte, Noisseville, etc)?
I am guessing that holding Metz means a better performance by the French military in general? If its just that the place still has a French garrison at the end of the war, & nothing else changes, then I don't think it remains with France. To retain more territory in a peace settlement France must do better during the war.
There's some huge potential from such prospects. A band of states called empires running continuously (assuming Germany still forms one) from the Pyrenees to the Pacific, and from Murmansk to Mecca.The only way to hold Metz would be to evacuate the Armee du Nord to Chalons, as per the orders issued by Napoleon, leaving only a garrison to hold the fortress. This would have been feasible before or immediately after the battle of Mars la Tour. Obviously such a POD changes the strategic outlook of the war, making it very risky for the Prussians to invest Paris and preserving the imperial regime. It doesn't mean that France would win the war, but makes an armistice and a non punitive peace treaty very likely.
As it happened IOTL, the AdN had no positive bottled up in the fortress and lacked the provision to resist a long siege.
Could France hold on to northern Lorraine (the Metz region) ITTL? Could it reoccupy all of Alsace, in a best case scenario?The only way to hold Metz would be to evacuate the Armee du Nord to Chalons, as per the orders issued by Napoleon, leaving only a garrison to hold the fortress. This would have been feasible before or immediately after the battle of Mars la Tour. Obviously such a POD changes the strategic outlook of the war, making it very risky for the Prussians to invest Paris and preserving the imperial regime. It doesn't mean that France would win the war, but makes an armistice and a non punitive peace treaty very likely.
As it happened IOTL, the AdN had no positive bottled up in the fortress and lacked the provision to resist a long siege.
I don’t believe France can afford to take the initiative, at least for the time being the goal is to keep an army in being at the Camps de Chalons in order to protect Paris.Could France hold on to northern Lorraine (the Metz region) ITTL? Could it reoccupy all of Alsace, in a best case scenario?
There are no clear cut answers: it depends on what is going to happen in Europe and in the world once the butterfly swarms.Would the Second French Empire endure to the present under these circumstances?