France holds 1940, Nazis lose, what happens to Eastern Poland?

I suspect that with different luck the Nazis 1940 attack could have been defeated. I suspect that in the medium term that would mean Hitler loses.

It could mean that Hitler is killed and the regime overthrown.

The question is do the Western Allies then take steps to force the Soviet Union to leave its part of Poland.
 
I'd imagine once it was clear Germany was spent militarily, the Soviets would dog pile onto Germany and it's allies. The Iron Curtain would fall a lot farther west in this scenario, and I think eastern Poland would be the least of the allies worries territorially.
 
The battle of France begins to go bad for the Germans and Hitler suffers an unfortunate accident and the Heer is able to take power from the remaining Nazis.

What if as part of the peace negotiations the Germans agree to vacate their half of Poland, but at the same time allow the Polish government in exile and French and British forces to transit Germany to replace the German forces as they withdraw.

What would Stalin do then? The winter war wasn't a smashing success and I would think he'd be hesitant to risk a war with France and the UK at this point.
 
I'd imagine once it was clear Germany was spent militarily, the Soviets would dog pile onto Germany and it's allies. The Iron Curtain would fall a lot farther west in this scenario, and I think eastern Poland would be the least of the allies worries territorially.
Except that the Soviet only just achieved a pyrrhic victory over Finland, so taking on the west isn't really an option.
 

nbcman

Donor
The Soviets would probably say something like this:

The Polish General Government has disintegrated, and no longer shows any sign of life. This means that the Polish State and its General Government have, in point of fact, ceased to exist. In the same way, the Agreements concluded between the U.S.S.R., Germany and Poland have ceased to operate. Left to her own devices and bereft of leadership, the Polish General Government has become a suitable field for all manner of hazards and surprises, which may constitute a threat to the U.S.S.R. For these reasons the Soviet Government, who has hitherto been neutral, cannot any longer preserve a neutral attitude towards these facts... In these circumstances, the Soviet Government have directed the High Command of the Red Army to order troops to cross the frontier and to take under their protection the life and property of the population of Galicia — People's Commissar for Foreign Affairs of the U.S.S.R. V. Molotov, August 17, 1940

prior to shifting their occupation to the west. I don't know if the Western Allies would be willing to go to war with the USSR to restore Poland when they specifically only gave a guarantee to Poland in case the Germans attacked.
 
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