France Doesn't Aid the American Colonists

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

According to the Wikipedia page on the War of Bavarian Succession, Catherine the Great would have supported Frederick.

Austria backed down due to the threat of war with Russia, but maybe wouldn't have if they had been assured of French support. So without France declaring war on Britain, you could have had a large continental war in Europe.

 

[Alstein]

My guess: a longer Revolution, perhaps an eventual negotiated settlement with the US having independence but no territories and still reliant on GB heavily.
The US would be more isolationist, but also would be investing more in their navy- scared of GB. A Canadian revolution is possible down the line.

The US might opportunistically side with GB during Napoleonic wars to get Louisiana.

 

[Faeelin]

But why would the USA be hostile to France? France may have balked at sending troops, but it still gave the Americans money and weapons.

It's a British dominion.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

The Americans never figured out how to pay for their army without French subsidies. In fact this was a big reason why the Articles of Confederation were replaced by a Constitution establishing a federal government with its own ability to levy taxes.

Set against this was the complete inability of the British government to come up with a strategy to suppress the revolt, and the fact that George III was the only figure of importance who really wanted to make the attempt. In fact the French declaration of war breathed life into the British war effort. They did much better at fighting the war after 1778 than before, its just North America wasn't the first or even the second strategic priority.

So this is very much the case of a resistible force versus a moveable object.

Agreed, although I think that Britain would probably end up coming out on top: all they have to do is keep bumbling along long enough for the Americans to run out of cash (which IOTL almost happened anyway, even with direct French etc. involvement), and they'd essentially win by default.

That said, after Saratoga if not before the status quo ante wasn't going to be a realistic option. Most likely the colonies would get something like OTL's Dominion status, being internally self-governing but having their foreign affairs managed by Britain. The Brits might have to re-open the western frontier as well as a condition of peace.