France does not fall. What happens next?

Say, that, France defeated the German attack in 1940. What happens next? Could France and the UK launch a counter-offensive against Nazi Germany? If so, how successful would they be? How long would this timeline's World War II last?
 
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The short version is the French leaders calculated:

1. Rearmament would be complete in late 1941.

2. Training would be complete by then as well. Probablly earlier.

3. The Brits would have completed 1& 2 by then, and have a fair sized army on the continent.

4. Germany would be suffering economic hardship, and unable to field as large as army or air Force as the Allies in 1942.

5. Limited offensives would start in 1941. In 1942 larger offensives would break the German defense.

In all this Allied five power would be maximized. The German defense would be paved over by massive quantities of ammunition.
 
Looking over my notes the possibilities in the air war jump out at me. First off the Brits substantially out built the Germans in new aircraft 1940-42. Ellis in 'Brute Force has some direct comparisons for aircraft production of the major nations. & German production 1941-42 is actually unimpressive considering their head start. French projections for aircraft production are not in Ellis, or other sources I've run across. May have to resort to French language sources. However one of my notes shows the French goal was to have a operational air force strength of 10,000 aircraft in 1942. This is close to what the Brits had globally in 1942 so its not unbelieveable. The US had less at the start of 1942, but a substantial chunk of US production was going to Britain, Dutch East Indies, Finnland, Latin America, USSR, ect... The French had just completed a massive reorganization of its aircraft industry 1938-39 and retooled for new models. The also had substantial orders with the US industry. 1,800 aircraft were to be delivered in 1940, 3000 on order for 1941 with more in negotiation.

Looking at German stats for 1941-42 the biannual count of operating machines rose from 2800 combat aircraft April 1940 to nearly 6000 at the end of 1942. While production in 1942 was near six times that combat and operating losses kept the front line operating units from expanding much beyond the 6000 mark. Obviously a lot more data is needed to get a handle on this, but the historical performance 1941-42 in production and maintiance does not favor Germany.

In terms of aircrew of pilot training the numbers are worse. The Brits had in 1939 streamlined and refocused their pilot training on the skills actually needed for fighting the war. The German Air Force did not accomplish this until 1942. 1939-42 the Germans also had a problem with flight instructor shortages. The periodic use of the school staff for combat operations constrained & sometimes halted flight training. The work around was to hand off finishing training to the operating units. Each group was suposed to have a small training squadron. But, operational demands left that incomplete as well. As early as 1941 the rookies out of school were going into combat prematurely. In this the French may have had a advantage over the Brits as well as the Germans. Inter war they had built of a reserve of pilots with a larger than usual number of flight hours. While older & not always suitable for combat from age their flight experience was stronger. the represented a very large pool of potiential instructors. In contrast Germany had not been able to seriously expand its pilot pool until after 1936. The average German pilot had under three years experience in 1940. It leaned heavily of a smaller number of veterans with long hours. Again the numbers need to be examined in detail, but the Allies seem to have a advantage in this as well.

I expect there are some similar problems in other sectors. its a question worth picking over in detail.
 
Say, that, France defeated the German attack in 1940. What happens next? Could France and the UK launch a counter-offensive against Nazi Germany? If so, how successful would they be? How long would this timeline's World War II last?

I feel like the answer could be up in the air. if you layout the possible costs of defeating all of the German offensives in 1940 It would almost force an amphibious landing in early 1940 just to bolster the number of troops available to France. Ultimately I believe that it would also alienate Russia at that point merely because the Anglo-French part of their alliance just proved that they could whip a divided Germany. I could be wrong though...obviously there are only two ways to find out. #1 get a DeLorean and go 88 mph with a Flux Capacitor, or #2 get a group of people together and play Axis and Allies Europe 1940.
 
A Blunted Sickle seems to be the premier timeline answer on France holding.
My concern with A Blunted Sickle is a big chunk of the German Army gets pocketed. That has to be a big help.

Say the the assault on the Ardennes gets stopped and you have a situation where Belgium and Holland have been added to the fight, but otherwise the front lines haven't changed that much. The Germans still have their immediate population advantage and the Allies haven't had to learn anything from a penetrating blitzkrieg.

At some point in the next year the Germans have to roll the dice again before the Allies' material advantages become too great. As noted above the Allies aren't "ready" until late 1941. There is every chance the German's tactical advantages come into play again with an attack before then. With the larger front line and Belgian and Dutch forces I expect the Allies to be able to grind it out, but is that realistic? Not my area so I don't know.
 
A couple differences in the French defence between 1940 & 1941.

80+ full trained div, vs maybe 40 in May 1940.

All the obsolete aircraft gone.

Army is now combat tested.

Gamelin is long gone,& so are many other old Crocks.

Better understanding of how the German doctrines work

Lots of ammunition, & lots more.

20+ trained & equipped Commonwealth div.

That probablly just scratches the surface. Then there's all the German changes.
 
A couple differences in the French defence between 1940 & 1941.
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In addition to all that its also very likely ITTL version of 1941 Italy hasn't entered the war - so no North Africa/East Africa or Mediterranean campaigns chewing up men, leadership, material and resources.

Another important point is that the British army equipment/material panic response of 1940 doesn't occur as it did OTL with more granular level flow on effects tactically.
 
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...

Another important point is that the British army equipment/material panic response of 1940 doesn't occur as it did OTL with more granular level flow on effects tactically.

You mean like the 6lbr AT gun fielded en mass in 1941? I'm reminded the French had both 75mm & 90mm high velocity gun projects underway in 1940.
 
No France falling so definitely no Italy in the war which really changes things for the Allies. However, I do wonder if Mussolini tries something on the side against Yugoslavia...
 
This thread really deserves more input. The subject has come up a number of ways here & other discussion sites. There a lot more data from 1938-40 that could be presented here & discussed for its implications in a extend war with France undefeated.

One item are the German dead from May june 1940; 58,000 is the common number taken from the Wehrmachts records. How does that compare to other campaigns in WWI or II? How much worse will it be in this alternate outcome? How does that affect German Army morale?
 
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