France defeats Prussia: How long can unification be delayed

The Second French Empire was trying to, literally, recreate the First.

Well, obviously it restored the Bonapartes to the throne but otherwise Napoléon III was a very different type of ruler than his uncle. He accepted a coexistence with the UK in a way his uncle would not have, and was becoming a constitutional monarch by the time he was deposed. He wanted a victory to strengthen his family’s hold on the throne but I don’t think he planned on re-creating his uncle’s old puppet states.
 
France isn't going to be on the ascendancy if it gets in a conflict against Russia, UK and Prussia.

IMO if France wins in 1870 they are going to get some of the Southern Rhineland, prevent (political)German unification, humiliate Prussia and probably restore some of the Austrian influence but it really depends on the type of victory, I personally can't see a big victory for France, in the sense of crossing the Rhine or sieging Berlin, at least with a POD in 1870. This would mean more mild terms.
Your looking at the situation from hindsight and 20th Century perceptions of France. In 1870, France was considered the strongest power on the continent, similar to how Germany was perceived in the 20th Century. The context of my predictions are based on the scinerio presented by the OP of a French victory in the FPW.

If France was actually strong enough to defeat the German alliance, then they surely would have been emboldened to try for further conquests, like Belgium perhaps. I know the entire premise is faulty based on OTL, but if France could figure out a way to beat Prussia, whom would she fear? An Austria that had been beaten so baday in 1866, that it declined the chance for potentially easy pickings in 1870? Britain with no army? Prussia, who they just beat? The Russians who performed poorly in the Crimea?

This is why the Franco-Prussian War was a bigger deal and turning point than most people realize. The butterflies abound.
 
I just realized, if Prussia is too weak to do anything, and Napoleon III is still in power, I think personally he might try to annex Luxembourg like he tried to do after the Austro-Prussian war. France in Europe might want to go after a few Microstates, like Luxembourg, and Andorra, and try to gain as much land without angering anyone. France, under Napoleon III, will probably ask for reparations from Germany and spend it on infrastructure projects.

Germany might be threatened to start forming alliances earlier. Probably with Austria-Hungary, but maybe the Ottomans even earlier, in the 1870s, or 1880s. Since Abdul Hamid II is still in charge, Germany might be inclined to start helping with Ottoman modernization far earlier than previously. Especially if France is even more of a problem, Russia will be an even larger factor to worry about, especially considering Russia's economy is growing faster than ever if the Ottomans can become self-sufficient, Germany could get Austria-Hungary, and the Ottomans on Russia, and send all the German might on France.
 
The treaty of London signed in 1867 (including France) obligates the Great Powers (plus Belgium and the Netherlands) to protect Luxembourg from any external aggression, if Napoleon III tries to annex it he's calling Prussia for round 2, this time with Britain and Italy, maybe Russia as well.
 
The treaty of London signed in 1867 (including France) obligates the Great Powers (plus Belgium and the Netherlands) to protect Luxembourg from any external aggression, if Napoleon III tries to annex it he's calling Prussia for round 2, this time with Britain and Italy, maybe Russia as well.

IIRC he tried to pay for Luxembourg.
 
IIRC he tried to pay for Luxembourg.
Yes, Bismarck objected and lead to the Luyxemburg Crisis, solved in the treaty of London, that was before the Franco-Prussian War (so before the PoD). King Gorilla isn't selling Luxemburg knowing that Britain and Prussia would object now.
 
Yes, Bismarck objected and lead to the Luyxemburg Crisis, solved in the treaty of London, that was before the Franco-Prussian War (so before the PoD). King Gorilla isn't selling Luxemburg knowing that Britain and Prussia would object now.

Would Bismark be fired if they lose the Franco-Prussian war? If France wins, is Germany really in the position to want to do anything?
 
I also want to point out that Brittain already was pretty estranged from France by 1870 - thats why they didnt lift a finger when Prussia beat it to a pulp OTL. They saw Napoleon III as a problem since he started expanding during the Italian unification and things have become only worse as time went on. Now they see him beating Prussia - who has beaten Austria pretty handily not long ago - and expanding into Germany. And Prussia was already in very good terms with Russia - Bismarck was very careful on that front. I dont say that this would lead to a coalition against France but it would be a huge step in that direction.

My point is France was already alone in 1870. A victory like this will isolate it even more. Their only possible alliances would be at this point Italy or Austria. Italy is problematic because of Rome being under French occupation. Austria would loose any influence in Germany if it allied France and would pose internal problems as well. The germans in Austria might have been happy with living in a german Austria under Habsburg rule but they were sympathetic to Germany and didnt like France much. I still see more possibilities for this than the Italian alliance. And even if it happened Italy is not much use against Germany/Prussia. Anyway I dont think any of us has two high an opinion of the military value of either of those alliances.

So IMO in round 2 Prussia wont be alone. Most likely is an alliance with Brittain and later maybe Italy - wih Brittain on board and french in Rome that shouldnt be that hard. I dont necesserily think on a formal alliance with Brittain but im pretty sure London will look to contain France. I dont see an Austrian-Prussian alliance this early. However if France managed to ally with Austria Berlin could count on Russia.
 
Your looking at the situation from hindsight and 20th Century perceptions of France. In 1870, France was considered the strongest power on the continent, similar to how Germany was perceived in the 20th Century. The context of my predictions are based on the scinerio presented by the OP of a French victory in the FPW.

If France was actually strong enough to defeat the German alliance, then they surely would have been emboldened to try for further conquests, like Belgium perhaps. I know the entire premise is faulty based on OTL, but if France could figure out a way to beat Prussia, whom would she fear? An Austria that had been beaten so baday in 1866, that it declined the chance for potentially easy pickings in 1870? Britain with no army? Prussia, who they just beat? The Russians who performed poorly in the Crimea?

This is why the Franco-Prussian War was a bigger deal and turning point than most people realize. The butterflies abound.
But the hindsight is kinda important, especially with a very late POD in 1870 just before the war.

I do think France is going to be bolder but still in such a situation they surely aren't going to have the UK as an ally and probably not Italy either(outside some colonial compromise over Tunisia, which still leaves some room for irrendentism over Nice and Corsica, but in that cause Austria would be the main focus), maybe Russia(against the UK) but I can't see them going for Belgium, even if Germany is beaten a Belgium invasion would trigger Austria to help them as well and so would the German states be permanently hostile to France which would play against them in the long run with their objective to stop political unification of Germany.
 
But the hindsight is kinda important, especially with a very late POD in 1870 just before the war.

I do think France is going to be bolder but still in such a situation they surely aren't going to have the UK as an ally and probably not Italy either(outside some colonial compromise over Tunisia, which still leaves some room for irrendentism over Nice and Corsica, but in that cause Austria would be the main focus), maybe Russia(against the UK) but I can't see them going for Belgium, even if Germany is beaten a Belgium invasion would trigger Austria to help them as well and so would the German states be permanently hostile to France which would play against them in the long run with their objective to stop political unification of Germany.
Irrendentism over Nice ? When Piémont ceded it willingly ? I think it's too early for there to be any.
 
Irrendentism over Nice ? When Piémont ceded it willingly ? I think it's too early for there to be any.
Yeah I do think with its 1871 borders Italy would prioritize irrendentism over Austrian territory rather than France, but if you add a colonial conflict on top of that I can easily see Italy being more hostile for France like they were in the early 80s, especially if Britain is on their side as well.
 
Germany was already mostly unified before the Franco-Prussian war: the 1866 constitution of the North German Confederation was almost identical to that of the 1871 constitution of the German Empire. The two major differences were:
  • The President of the Confederation (Bundespräsidium) is also given the title of "Deutscher Kaiser"/"German Emperor". He's still called "Bundespräsidium" as well in the 1871 constitution. This was actually a sticking point in the negotiations around the 1871 constitution: Wilhelm I wanted to be "Kaiser von Deutschland"/"Emperor of Germany", and for this to be a royal title separate from the Constitution rather than an office under it, but Bismark managed to talk him into accepting the "Deutscher Kaiser" title and maintaining the constitutional nature of the office.
  • The South German states (Bavaria, Wurttemberg, and Baden) which had previously been independent allies of the North German Confederation became member states of the German Empire.
The second was the more important of the two, but even that was mostly symbolic, since the states in question already had treaties allying them to the Confederation, military conventions integrating their armies into Prussia's in wartime, and had joined the Confederation's Customs Union. And as a member state of the Empire, Bavaria at least kept its own army in peacetime and sent and received ambassadors like an independent nation.

The real question is, would a victory in the Franco-Prussian War allow France to roll back German Unification significantly? For example, could they force the South German states to annul their treaties with the Confederation, could they force the separation of some of the Confederation's member states (or the independence of some of the states annexed outright to Prussia in 1866), or could they force the NGC to dissolve entirely? My gut feel is "maybe" to the first question, "probably not, unless it's a really smashing victory" to the second, and "no" to the last, but I could be persuaded otherwise.
 
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