France-Austria and Russia-Germany

Russia and Germany being very complimentary economically helps them in the lead-up to the war yet also probably bites them in the back in the aftermath of losing a world war - neither side is very diversified economy, designed to work well without the other part.

It would also add to the perceived indispensability of strong control over Poland, since it provides the vital two way pipeline that keeps the virtuous cycle of trade growing. It creates a pressure point that A-H and friends can keep contingencies to press on to try to undermine the power of their rival power block if they're starting to feel threatened, which as I mused earlier could very well be the powder keg that blows into the showdown between the alliances.

Though, if such a war did break out and Russo-German bloc loses, that would create disastrous economic shock that no doubt sends both nations spinning into a depression, even greater than the general post-war hardships. It'd be like the Great Depression in the US, perhaps, with a crisis of localized overproduction meaning wheat rotting in the fields of Russia in harvested and farms collapsing into foreclosure while Germans starve and huge industrial facilities sit idle for lack of demand, leading to militancy that's highly concentrated among the urban laboring/manufacturing class.

Red Ruhr Revolution?
 
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The likely POD for all this is the Dual Alliance of 1879, 8 years after the formation of the German Empire. Which is itself on the back of San Stefano.

So the Prussian Kaiser is deliberately choosing to cozy up with knout wielding slavic autocrats in preference to German, Catholic, civilised Austria, pissing off the pan germans, liberals, socialists, waltzers, catholics and racists at the same time.

Thats a good deal maybe for the Prussians, for everyone else not so much. That early its basically telling the south Germans they are nothing, and at east annoying if not infuriating Pan Germns in the north - pan slavism is ok but uniting the German lands is a no no. Even being nice to them is forbidden.

The late 19th century impulses, anti catholic and pan german will still occur, the latter both sides of the Austrian border so a continued Russian alliance is going to push the Southern States away, there is a reason Bismarck chose Austria

You also overestimate - by a lot, Germany's ability to finance things. It realy can't the banking system is priitive and in the very early years entirely dependent on access to London markets. There wil still be some, but Russia is an imperial rival so the terms will not be that great. Also the track record up to about 1900 is poor to middlig in terms of getting things done.

They were also institutionally reluctant to transfer military tech to anyone. How much the French helped with the metallurgy for the M1902 Russian is a moot point But the 8cm FKmk 5 is likely to benefit both from money, French metallurgy and earlier sight of QF in action ( the 7.7cm nA is only just coming into use in 05).

On the balkans up to the early part of the 20th century these are highly undeveloped societies OTL. with the relevant rivals Austria and Russia being cash poor. TTL again the French supporting AH will increase Austria ability to intervene - both economically which knocks on to civil society and very specifically in Serbia in 1903 where a pro Austrian Obrenovic ( age 26) is murdered and replaced by a pro Russian. A richer more confident Austria is very likely to intervene following the cruel murder of the King, and its difficult to see the Kaiser and the Tsar charging to the defence of regicides.

And in any event only become militarily significant after 1905 when they rearm for the 1912/13 balkan wars.
 
The likely POD for all this is the Dual Alliance of 1879, 8 years after the formation of the German Empire. Which is itself on the back of San Stefano.

So the Prussian Kaiser is deliberately choosing to cozy up with knout wielding slavic autocrats in preference to German, Catholic, civilised Austria, pissing off the pan germans, liberals, socialists, waltzers, catholics and racists at the same time.

Thats a good deal maybe for the Prussians, for everyone else not so much. That early its basically telling the south Germans they are nothing, and at east annoying if not infuriating Pan Germns in the north - pan slavism is ok but uniting the German lands is a no no. Even being nice to them is forbidden.

The late 19th century impulses, anti catholic and pan german will still occur, the latter both sides of the Austrian border so a continued Russian alliance is going to push the Southern States away, there is a reason Bismarck chose Austria

You also overestimate - by a lot, Germany's ability to finance things. It realy can't the banking system is priitive and in the very early years entirely dependent on access to London markets. There wil still be some, but Russia is an imperial rival so the terms will not be that great. Also the track record up to about 1900 is poor to middlig in terms of getting things done.

They were also institutionally reluctant to transfer military tech to anyone. How much the French helped with the metallurgy for the M1902 Russian is a moot point But the 8cm FKmk 5 is likely to benefit both from money, French metallurgy and earlier sight of QF in action ( the 7.7cm nA is only just coming into use in 05).

On the balkans up to the early part of the 20th century these are highly undeveloped societies OTL. with the relevant rivals Austria and Russia being cash poor. TTL again the French supporting AH will increase Austria ability to intervene - both economically which knocks on to civil society and very specifically in Serbia in 1903 where a pro Austrian Obrenovic ( age 26) is murdered and replaced by a pro Russian. A richer more confident Austria is very likely to intervene following the cruel murder of the King, and its difficult to see the Kaiser and the Tsar charging to the defence of regicides.

And in any event only become militarily significant after 1905 when they rearm for the 1912/13 balkan wars.

Wait... is this based on the premise San Stefano sticks rather than Bismark presenting himself as a neutral mediator at the Congress of Berlin? That itself certainly adds to Serb alienation from Russia and Germany, as it patronizes the Bulgarians and their expense.
 
Wait... is this based on the premise San Stefano sticks rather than Bismark presenting himself as a neutral mediator at the Congress of Berlin? That itself certainly adds to Serb alienation from Russia and Germany, as it patronizes the Bulgarians and their expense.

And its exactly that sort of thing that means you cannot do a simple projection from OTL to TTL
 
And its exactly that sort of thing that means you cannot do a simple projection from OTL to TTL
I fully concur: which is why my examinations have been more topic specific throughout the course of this thread. You make a really good point on the Kultarkumpf though: without the motivations to placate Austria and the South German states, Bismark is likely to crank up the Anti-Catholic rhetoric, which probably further alienated the Poles (And gives a boost to anti-pannational elements in the South and Austria, who can cast their local cultures and populations in sharper contrast to Berlin.
 
Actually, not meaning to be pushy or anything, but I have one more quick question I'd like to poke the community's brain about on this...

Given the German-Russian dominance over the Baltics, and the fact the Danish Straits and Arctic Sea routes are Russo-Germany's main accessways to the global market in this scenario, would Scandinavia regain some level of strategic importance and thus, even against its own will/desire for neutrality, be dragged back into the arena of international politics? Denmark, in particular, would probably be put under alot of stress from both ends, as its ability to mine and fortify the Straits would in the event of a war either lock down security for the Scandinavian convoy routes or trap the main body of the Russo-German fleets in the Baltics, at least until the completion of a Kiel Canal.
 
(One quick question; the main body of my timeline is going to be post-1900, but if the POD is before 1900 does one post it in the Before 1900 or After 1900 sections?)
 
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