Well, if Japan is part of the bloc the Russo-Japanese war itself (whatever the details of time and situation) has a solid chance of being the trigger...
But given the effects of butterflies/shifts in late 1800's economic development patterns I'd say the former, rather than OTL's pattern which favors the later. The "seed" effect of early capital injections, reforms, removing some setbacks/loses due to more solid economic, geopolitical, and domestic footing, ect. means compounding benefits to the strength of AH and the Ottomans, while a scarcity of capital, lesser market access, stricker heading off of expansions/less generous slices of the global pie in international agreements put Russo-Germany on a slower development path and thus will get squeezed into a smaller economic space. Combined with the former's hegemony over the world's oceans and non-Continental commerce (sans the American presence, but I fail to see how they're going to be actively hostile to its biggest trade partners given general regionalism/isolationism), and there's not much incentive for the historical boom in Russian development we saw IOTL.