France-Austria and Russia-Germany

This isn't the 18th century. France would have to be a hell of a lot more powerful for Austria to put itself at risk against Germany and Russia for the sake of an alliance.

The balance of power against Austria was too strong and it would likely seek accommodation with either one or both of Germany and Russia, and as another poster in this thread said, would not be so unwise as to line up against both of them.
This is why, IMO, for such an alliance to stand a chance at being wise strategy, it would require Turkey on its side, as well as Italian neutrality (minimum), with the UK being a very friendly neutral willing to declare for the alliance. At least one of Italy or, better yet, the UK, needs to be willing to go to war with them.
 
My thought process is that if Germany opts to ally with Russia, Austria will need to befriend France by default. So long as Russia and Austria have conflicting interests in the Balkans, they won't be able to ally with one another.

If the Ottomans become a third partner, that'd help but I'm not sure it'd be enough. It'd probably depend on how developed/industrialized the country can get with French financing. Might the Ottomans be able to industialize a bit if the French finance it like they financed Russian development OTL?
 
My thought process is that if Germany opts to ally with Russia, Austria will need to befriend France by default. So long as Russia and Austria have conflicting interests in the Balkans, they won't be able to ally with one another.

If the Ottomans become a third partner, that'd help but I'm not sure it'd be enough. It'd probably depend on how developed/industrialized the country can get with French financing. Might the Ottomans be able to industialize a bit if the French finance it like they financed Russian development OTL?
France and Britain teaming up to help A-H and Turkey hold the line with Russia would produce a formidable alliance. Such a situation also likely guarantees Italian neutrality unless the war truly turns belly-up for the alliance.
 

Deleted member 94680

This could happen but you’d have a much shorter alt-WWI if that happened at all.

Germany can finance all of Russia’s needs without French interference and their combined manpower and doctrinal advantages (Great General Staff mission to St Petersburg, anyone?) would likely mean an overrun of Austria in its entirety in short order.

Italy will stay out as the French can’t offer them anything they want in this TL and the Austrians are likely to be hostile to them anyway. That and British finance will keep them out of any adventuring.

I’m not sure what advantages to the alliance Turkey can realistically bring.
 
This could happen but you’d have a much shorter alt-WWI if that happened at all.

Germany can finance all of Russia’s needs without French interference and their combined manpower and doctrinal advantages (Great General Staff mission to St Petersburg, anyone?) would likely mean an overrun of Austria in its entirety in short order.

Italy will stay out as the French can’t offer them anything they want in this TL and the Austrians are likely to be hostile to them anyway. That and British finance will keep them out of any adventuring.

I’m not sure what advantages to the alliance Turkey can realistically bring.
An alliance along the lines I outlined in the post just above your post here is a way to produce an alliance that can equal Germany-Russia. Turkey is an extra ally on board, bottling up Russian resources; Austria holds the line in Central Europe; France and the UK have lots of colonies and lots of money. It's something of a motley gang but that's what necessary for one to hope to win against Germany and Russia combined.
The US likely sells to both sides, but if pushed it might go to war on the British side, just like OTL.
 

Deleted member 94680

An alliance along the lines I outlined in the post just above your post here is a way to produce an alliance that can equal Germany-Russia. Turkey is an extra ally on board, bottling up Russian resources; Austria holds the line in Central Europe; France and the UK have lots of colonies and lots of money. It's something of a motley gang but that's what necessary for one to hope to win against Germany and Russia combined.
The US likely sells to both sides, but if pushed it might go to war on the British side, just like OTL.

Turkey here is fighting on their own more or less against far more Russian troops. Russia is fighting far less in the way of just the Austrians (with two German armies on their side) across a smaller border. This leaves more Russians to fight the Turks.

But, as you’ve pointed out, Britain is the wildcard here. Britain’s balance of power interests would suggest that they help the Franco-Austrians, but how does alt-WWI begin?
 
Turkey here is fighting on their own more or less against far more Russian troops. Russia is fighting far less in the way of just the Austrians (with two German armies on their side) across a smaller border. This leaves more Russians to fight the Turks.

But, as you’ve pointed out, Britain is the wildcard here. Britain’s balance of power interests would suggest that they help the Franco-Austrians, but how does alt-WWI begin?
Most likely triggers, imo, is, either 1) some disturbance in Czechoslovakia or Galicia, or 2) somewhere in the Caucusus. Serbia might be an option but I doubt Turkey gets as carved up because France and UK are opposed to Russian irrendetism (no appetite for Crimea War redux) and Austria probably allied with Turkey quite some time ago. Post-1878 borders might be likely here.
If Abdul Hamid is till in charge Turkey could be very lucky ITTL, to have this kind of geopolitical situation.
 
Austria will never cede Trieste to Italy.

Trentino, Gorizia, Gradisca, Kotor, and the parts of Dalmatia would be possible though. Austria can't give too much of Dalmatia without alienating the Croats though.

France probably cedes Tunisia. Djibouti, other colonies, Nice, and Savoy would come up but I think France would sooner give away large chunks of its empire (French Equatorial Africa perhaps) than give a part of the French metropole.
 
I'm surprised no one has mentioned China considering there are mid 19th century PoDs being thrown around, I would be surprised if a few decades of wanking (incl French loans and other help the moment the French realise they are up against a German-Russian) are unable to turn them into a foe for the Russians with a strength comparable of the Ottomans.

Maybe also throw in an irredentist Persia, just as another annoyance for the Russians.
 
My thought process is that if Germany opts to ally with Russia, Austria will need to befriend France by default. So long as Russia and Austria have conflicting interests in the Balkans, they won't be able to ally with one another.

If the Ottomans become a third partner, that'd help but I'm not sure it'd be enough. It'd probably depend on how developed/industrialized the country can get with French financing. Might the Ottomans be able to industialize a bit if the French finance it like they financed Russian development OTL?

I don't see why not. Particularly if their financial house is (intially) in better order. (Which in a world where Austria is more friendly and Germany isen't considered a neutral broker would be easier since the Congress of Berlin, if it even occurs at all, is likely to be more lenient). Ultimately, a friendly A-H rather than one with regional expansionist desires does wonders for Turkish stability in the Balkans, and with strong French backing you could very well see the Tazimat reforms under a (keeping to his youthful Liberal tendencies) Abdul Hamid really helping the Empire take off. Of course, alot depends on when exactly this diplomatic re-alignment takes place.

Most likely triggers, imo, is, either 1) some disturbance in Czechoslovakia or Galicia, or 2) somewhere in the Caucusus. Serbia might be an option but I doubt Turkey gets as carved up because France and UK are opposed to Russian irrendetism (no appetite for Crimea War redux) and Austria probably allied with Turkey quite some time ago. Post-1878 borders might be likely here.
If Abdul Hamid is till in charge Turkey could be very lucky ITTL, to have this kind of geopolitical situation.

I'd aruge its just as likely that a situation in Russia is just as likely here; Poland seems like an interesting option here, considering the Habsburg's historical leniancy towards/co-opting of the Galician Poles as a potential third leg for the Imperial stole (The fact that both Germans and Russians are far less tolerant towards the Polish identity and political power to the ethnicty likely results in stronger Austrian support for the Polish intelligencia and insurgency movements, and both the French Left and Right have reasons to be sympathetic to the cause of the Poles) It'd also be a matter over which the Russo-German alliance would be willing to fight to the death over; given that freedom for the Poles would drive a giant hostile wedge between them.
 
I don't see why not. Particularly if their financial house is (intially) in better order. (Which in a world where Austria is more friendly and Germany isen't considered a neutral broker would be easier since the Congress of Berlin, if it even occurs at all, is likely to be more lenient). Ultimately, a friendly A-H rather than one with regional expansionist desires does wonders for Turkish stability in the Balkans, and with strong French backing you could very well see the Tazimat reforms under a (keeping to his youthful Liberal tendencies) Abdul Hamid really helping the Empire take off. Of course, alot depends on when exactly this diplomatic re-alignment takes place.
The Ottomans could advance far ITTL here - when you throw in British backing as well, there's even more potential.
I'd aruge its just as likely that a situation in Russia is just as likely here; Poland seems like an interesting option here, considering the Habsburg's historical leniancy towards/co-opting of the Galician Poles as a potential third leg for the Imperial stole (The fact that both Germans and Russians are far less tolerant towards the Polish identity and political power to the ethnicty likely results in stronger Austrian support for the Polish intelligencia and insurgency movements, and both the French Left and Right have reasons to be sympathetic to the cause of the Poles) It'd also be a matter over which the Russo-German alliance would be willing to fight to the death over; given that freedom for the Poles would drive a giant hostile wedge between them.
I didn't think about that.
Another, third possibility - big Polish uprising in former Congress Poland>Russians learn that Austria has been supplying weapons>Austria denies on plausible deniability grounds (which is a lie, of course)>Russia blames Austria for the events and mobilizes>Austria does the same>war breaks out
 
Even that sounds quite optimistic - with a German/Russian offensive you'd be able to cut off Bohemia through a German attack up the Danube valley and a Russian strike through Krakow to Brno, and then capture all of it.
Given that OP specifies these alliances being more or less set in stone since the 1800s I think it's reasonable to assume that the Habsburgs have prepared for that exact strategy, as it is the most obvious one. The gaps through which the German and Russian armies would have to move are fairly narrow so some prepared defences (and OTL the Austrian's built pretty good ones) could do wonders.
 
The Ottomans could advance far ITTL here - when you throw in British backing as well, there's even more potential.

I didn't think about that.
Another, third possibility - big Polish uprising in former Congress Poland>Russians learn that Austria has been supplying weapons>Austria denies on plausible deniability grounds (which is a lie, of course)>Russia blames Austria for the events and mobilizes>Austria does the same>war breaks out

I doubt you'd be able to pull a massive uprisings in such a sensative location in a scenario were the Russian state is still relatively stable (Maybe during a 1905-analogue of major civil unrest you could see sporadic efforts cohalese into something of a bigger threat, likely with a "core" of organized and armed militants who'd been in Austria bolstering an otherwise scattered mass of mobs), which is eventually crushed by a joint Russo-German "Police Action". The leadership and surviving elements retreat into Galicia, where they find succor with the sympathetic local nobility and Vienna finds herself under an ultimatum to turn them over to "justice"? and dismantle its support structures for the "Terrorist ideology" of Polish Patriotism?

... that idea just came in a stream of consciousness, but that'd be a great alternate WWI start for a timeline. If only one could craft a way to get into this position.
 
I doubt you'd be able to pull a massive uprisings in such a sensative location in a scenario were the Russian state is still relatively stable (Maybe during a 1905-analogue of major civil unrest you could see sporadic efforts cohalese into something of a bigger threat, likely with a "core" of organized and armed militants who'd been in Austria bolstering an otherwise scattered mass of mobs), which is eventually crushed by a joint Russo-German "Police Action". The leadership and surviving elements retreat into Galicia, where they find succor with the sympathetic local nobility and Vienna finds herself under an ultimatum to turn them over to "justice"? and dismantle its support structures for the "Terrorist ideology" of Polish Patriotism?

... that idea just came in a stream of consciousness, but that'd be a great alternate WWI start for a timeline. If only one could craft a way to get into this position.
Would 1905 itself be a good date? Fresh off a similar-to-OTL Russo-Japanese War?
 
Would 1905 itself be a good date? Fresh off a similar-to-OTL Russo-Japanese War?

Well, I'd say butterflies kick in, but given Germany's penchant for the "Yellow Peral" rhetoric at times (Likely only stoked by a stronger and hostile OE creating a greater threatening image of the non-Western world) and Russia's natural ambitions towards Manchuria by the facts of geography (Security from/control of it being nessicery to have a dependable outlet to the Pacific, which is logistically key for Siberia being worth something) I'd say something like the Russo-Japanese war is likely to happen in any timeline with a modernized, dynamic Japan. Maybe not in 1905, exactly, but it'd be a rough guide.
 
Well, I'd say butterflies kick in, but given Germany's penchant for the "Yellow Peral" rhetoric at times (Likely only stoked by a stronger and hostile OE creating a greater threatening image of the non-Western world) and Russia's natural ambitions towards Manchuria by the facts of geography (Security from/control of it being nessicery to have a dependable outlet to the Pacific, which is logistically key for Siberia being worth something) I'd say something like the Russo-Japanese war is likely to happen in any timeline with a modernized, dynamic Japan. Maybe not in 1905, exactly, but it'd be a rough guide.
So, which bloc benefits the longer war is delayed? The UK-France-Turkey-Austria-(Japan, possibly) bloc, or the Germany-Russia bloc?
 
So, which bloc benefits the longer war is delayed? The UK-France-Turkey-Austria-(Japan, possibly) bloc, or the Germany-Russia bloc?

Well, if Japan is part of the bloc the Russo-Japanese war itself (whatever the details of time and situation) has a solid chance of being the trigger...

But given the effects of butterflies/shifts in late 1800's economic development patterns I'd say the former, rather than OTL's pattern which favors the later. The "seed" effect of early capital injections, reforms, removing some setbacks/loses due to more solid economic, geopolitical, and domestic footing, ect. means compounding benefits to the strength of AH and the Ottomans, while a scarcity of capital, lesser market access, stricker heading off of expansions/less generous slices of the global pie in international agreements put Russo-Germany on a slower development path and thus will get squeezed into a smaller economic space. Combined with the former's hegemony over the world's oceans and non-Continental commerce (sans the American presence, but I fail to see how they're going to be actively hostile to its biggest trade partners given general regionalism/isolationism), and there's not much incentive for the historical boom in Russian development we saw IOTL.
 
Well, if Japan is part of the bloc the Russo-Japanese war itself (whatever the details of time and situation) has a solid chance of being the trigger...

But given the effects of butterflies/shifts in late 1800's economic development patterns I'd say the former, rather than OTL's pattern which favors the later. The "seed" effect of early capital injections, reforms, removing some setbacks/loses due to more solid economic, geopolitical, and domestic footing, ect. means compounding benefits to the strength of AH and the Ottomans, while a scarcity of capital, lesser market access, stricker heading off of expansions/less generous slices of the global pie in international agreements put Russo-Germany on a slower development path and thus will get squeezed into a smaller economic space. Combined with the former's hegemony over the world's oceans and non-Continental commerce (sans the American presence, but I fail to see how they're going to be actively hostile to its biggest trade partners given general regionalism/isolationism), and there's not much incentive for the historical boom in Russian development we saw IOTL.
What's the latest war could occur? 1914? 1909? 1919?
 
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