France + Algeria = Great(er) Power?

France in the 20th Century really fell hard - particularly from WW2 onwards.

Much of this had to do with the decline of their empire, but also because when compared to powers of a continental scale such as the United States and Soviet Union it's hard not to pale in comparison.

Algeria today has 42 million people. It's approximate to France, and though middle-income would likely be wealthier if part of France. The population would probably be smaller though, due to access to family planning, increased income, women in the workforce, women being educated, etc but I can't see it being any less than 30 million at the lowest.

With Algeria, France would have a larger population, lots of oil, and an overland connection to Niger from which France derives its Uranium.

If one wants to take the idea further, France retaining Gabon, Djibouti, and Comoros and perhaps annexing Fezzan could work.
They could also ensure that they keep Kehl and maintain Saarish independence and dependency.
 
A surviving French Algeria would resemble the West Bank at best. France would likely see it's money and blood drained in a pointless conflict over Algeria maybe the Oil and Natural gas could cover the cost of a conflict and occupation.The only end to it would be a partition or an independent Algeria like otl or a genocide of the Algerian population. Algeria is simply too big to be absorbed into France.
 
I can't see France keeping Algeria with any POD after 1900. Perhapsh Northern Algeria is possible but even in best case it would be quiet hostile to French and there would be endless terrorist campaigns and France has occasssionally send troops there crush rebellions. And France is still signifant nation without Algeria. Algeria perhaps could be better if it gets independence peacefully and avoids dictatorship and civil war in 1990's.
 
Do you think that French would allow 30 million Algerians to vote, while giving them extreme autonomy - making them a separate country effectively. Because that’s the only way the french could even remotely keep the whole Algeria, and even then it’s a huge stretch.

There just is too much of a Democraphic imbalance, there is no way for them to integrate Algeria peacefully.

Now here is the possibility to keep it by force, in this case it would involve separating Algeria in two, as well as lots of population displacement, if the goal is to have as many “Europeans” as possible, they could try to push for immigration, the pieds noir after all were very often Spanish in origin, there are some millions Spanish, Portuguese, Italians who really wanted to leave their country during the 20th century and they would gladly move to Algeria, if you can go pre 1900 there is a lot of potential (Even further back, if you can find a way to increase French emigration, either through a demographic transition comparable to other European countries or by making the southern part of the county much poorer) - not impossible that it could reach several million, maybe 5 or more, by today with such PoD.

Another idea would be try to prevent Algerians from going to the cities around the early 20th century so that the coast would be European majority

But even in this case there would still be too many Arabs for he French, so expect a lot of restriction on voting.

One of the proposal that is often talked about here Is making an exclave around Oran, since the département (post 1955 one, the one before 1955 was much larger) had a slight French majority , although by the late 50s the trend was quickly inverting. Again it’s militarily possible but it would be such a money drain i’m Not sure it would be worth it, and it would also require to move away a few hundred thousands Arab, and I doubt many pied noirs from Algier or Constantine would leave their homes to go to Oran. Algier also had most of the industries on Algeria, IMO an Algier exclave is slightly more feasible practically but considering the city was the most important of Algeria feuding its history there would be even more terrorist attacks and animosity. In 1961 few Algerian would have accepted an Oran exclave, in 1954 this could have been a possibility, but an Alger exclave would never have been accepted.

The Base of mers el kebir had a 15 years lease, renewable, after the Evian accord, but the French decided to leave it after 5 years, it included the naval base (which was in a highly defensible bay near Oran) as well as the air base and communication infrastructure in the small coastal plain (bousfer and El Ançor), this could have effectively been kept indefinitely - being more or less Ceuta sized with a minimal pod.

As for other colonies. Gabon is by far the easier, not sure it would have been worth it for France but the oil wealth would certainly be better redistributed than irl, so then gabonais would at least have a decent quality of life, much better than their neighbour. Commoros is much trickier since Mayotte was the only really pro French island, there would be significant unrest in the rest of the archipelago, but a poor French commutes would still be incomparably better than the irl commores

Djibouti is.. hard, the Somali majority really didn’t want the French to stay, there was some attacks in the 70s, so either 1) the French build a new base in the northern, afar majority part of the country, but that would be expensive af, 2) they give huge concessions to the Somalis BeFORE they get too agressive (unrealistic) or 3) they crackdown hard on them an resettle actively Afars and French their, unrealistic for IRL France, less so for one that keeps part of Algeria. (Btw, the 1967 referendum was very biaised toward the Afars, more of them voted than Somali despite being a minority)

Would it be worth it? I don’t know, they already have a base irl in Djibouti, the only Change would be that it would deny the American, Japanese and Chinese a base there, but i’m Sure Eritrea would be happy to give them some land.
 
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For the most realistic outcome you'll need a pre-1900 PoD. However, if an alternate French government tackles the demographic decline of France relative to the other powers more seriously, and is able to fill Algeria with substantially more French people while simultaneously dividing the Algerians and making elements of them loyal to the French state I think integration of the two countries could work out. But you'll need a different WW1 that doesn't so severely damage France. Either a rapid German victory that leads to less damage in the metropole and no WW2, or some kind of alt-WW1 that results in a strengthened France. Either outcome could provide more stability to France, allowing them time to exert uncontested rule over Algeria, and solidify both their institutional and demographic strength there.
 
I think the problem is kinda hard to solve : French and Algerian people almost never married each others, because of religious incompatibility, so that's hard to avoid. It would most lokely require an earlier POD than 1900 to keep all of Algeria, but if think christianization or secularisation of both French and Algerian societies would be a key element.

The second point is probably the most evident : inequalities between algerian natives and Pieds-Noirs, so there is a need of anti-racist but not independentist movement, because Algeria was seen as a part of France, but Algerians were not seen as French
 

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Lybia was the best country to colonize in hindsight because of a low population (easily overtaken or assimilated by immigration) and oil. Had Italy, for example, kept it after WW2, it may very well have been much wealthier.
 
Lybia was the best country to colonize in hindsight because of a low population (easily overtaken or assimilated by immigration) and oil. Had Italy, for example, kept it after WW2, it may very well have been much wealthier.
And alot more dead Libyans italians devastated the population with their campaigns.......
 
As for other colonies. Gabon is by far the easier, not sure it would have been worth it for France but the oil wealth would certainly be better redistributed than irl, so then gabonais would at least have a decent quality of life, much better than their neighbour. Commoros is much trickier since Mayotte was the only really pro French island, there would be significant unrest in the rest of the archipelago, but a poor French commutes would still be incomparably better than the irl commores
What about Senegal?

The city of Dakar had a deep pro French streak even amongst native Senegalese. Then add in a good number of French transplants and French affiliated transplants from the colonial empire. In addition, ethnic Senegalese had a tradition for strong and steady light infantry service in French military going back generations.

Also..... Maybe the French could go "Putin". Not the Donbass Putin, but the rising star Putin who put forth the idea of a "Federated State" at break up of the Soviet Union:

Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan (then 50% Slavic or German), stay united as a trading bloc and also in regards to macro level international relations, military and economic policy. Members have a unified currency. Macro level things are planned by the government of the Federated state with appropriate legislative bodies.

Meanwhile, each member state would have a "National Government" and complete local autonomy. National governments would fly their own flags, maintain separate national level armed forces (while contributing to the federal armed forces), maybe even maintain embassies as quasi distinct nations. People would be citizens of their respective nations, but nationals of the Federated State. As nationals, they have some residency abilities in other member states via permits (each member state can decide on how and how many permits are issued) but cannot vote in National elections and may or may not have access to all social benefits of the host nation.

In the end, perhaps a Federated State of France, Algeria, Gabon, the Comoros and Senegal?
 
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What about Senegal?

So like... a smaller french union :)


Senegal had the 4 communes, 4 towns/cities (Dakar and 2 suburbs, and St-louis), they had it since the late 17th century (contrary to the rest of senegal which they officialy control since the scramble of africa), it's where the tirraileur senegalais come from originally, and by 1916 its inhabitant had full french citizenship (although the towns were rather small and that was before the mass movement of native to the cities generally), so if they really want they can keep those cities, they would be like much larger (500k-2 million depending on their migration policies) ceuta, more to the south...

Annexing the whole Senegal would be... hard, while the current population size is directly a result of half a century of poverty, even with better access to birth control, it would still likely be more than 5 millions, maybe 10 millions senegalais, who are muslim, at least they would be less nationalistic and more compatible with french than algerians, i'm still not sure if the french would accept it...

The Head of the federation would likely not have too much power, limited only to defense and foreign relations then, but i guess it's possible, i still don't see it for algerians, their nationalism got too developped, maybe with a 1900 POD there is a way to manage it, not with a post ww2 one.

Another possibility (besides bizerte, whichis easily keepable if the french are ready to destroy any relations with tunisia, puducherry, if they can do the same with india, and vanuatu, if they can convince the brits) is lebanon, or rather mount lebannon, basically the christian majority area near Beyrouth and mont liban (as well as a bit more territory around it). One of the problem is that while christian lebannese liked the french and prefered them to the muslims a lot, they didn't feel french at all, they very much wanted independance, but french rule was the better compromise.
So rather than integrating them directly, what if france officialy separated the mount lebannon from the rest either before ww2, or during it? Then it would break away as its own state in 1943, and potentially syria and the rest of lebanon would attack it, then french can enter and save them and giving them a very autonomous protectorate role, then they can put them in this "French federation"

One of the big problem is that it will tie french to the middle east, and tie them to a state that will be as hated (and likely allied) to Israel, the early french-israeli cooperation of the early 50s would likely continu for much longer. but yeah, i think this is fundamentally incompatible with a french or french-alligned algeria, and will be a problem for the muslim minority in france - if it even appears ITTL.
Then it will also likely increase christian persecution in the middle east, and turns out they now have a homeland for christian (well it was supposed to be for maronites first but they can't be picky), in a matter of decades the state will very likely become *more* populated than isreal, potentially more than 10 million, and restricted to 2,500 km².
 
What about Senegal?

The city of Dakar had a deep pro French streak even amongst native Senegalese. Then add in a good number of French transplants and French affiliated transplants from the colonial empire. In addition, ethnic Senegalese had a tradition for strong and steady light infantry service in French military going back generations.

Also..... Maybe the French could go "Putin". Not the Donbass Putin, but the rising star Putin who put forth the idea of a "Federated State" at break up of the Soviet Union:

Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan (then 50% Slavic or German), stay united as a trading bloc and also in regards to macro level international relations, military and economic policy. Members have a unified currency. Macro level things are planned by the government of the Federated state with appropriate legislative bodies.

Meanwhile, each member state would have a "National Government" and complete local autonomy. National governments would fly their own flags, maintain separate national level armed forces (while contributing to the federal armed forces), maybe even maintain embassies as quasi distinct nations. People would be citizens of their respective nations, but nationals of the Federated State. As nationals, they have some residency abilities in other member states via permits (each member state can decide on how and how many permits are issued) but cannot vote in National elections and may or may not have access to all social benefits of the host nation.

In the end, perhaps a Federated State of France, Algeria, Gabon, the Comoros and Senegal?
IIRC Senegal was one of the first subsaharan countries to declare independence. Also the "Tirailleur Senegalais" were from all across French Africa, not just modern day Senegal.
That federated state kind of existed (the French Union and then the French Community), but in practice the metropole had all the power and the other states could only give their opinion.
What you want is to avoid the Algerian War. It's difficult because Algeria wasn't colonial territory but full French departments, the Pieds Noirs and the Algerian Nationalists weren't open to compromises in the positions and the IVth Republic was politically weak (it was a parliamentary regime with no clear majority in the assembly, so governments would fall every couple months). Maybe if a strong socialist coalition emerged early on they could force some kind of compromise were Oran and other areas were Pied Noirs are a majority would stay as French Departements while the rest of Algeria would become its own state within the French Union. Algerians may still push for independance afterwards but the chance that the two countries have good relations is much higher.
 
I think removing "French" from the name is half of the way, maybe a "Chancellerie" would do it, and the head of it would be chosen as NOT the French president, but some famous person that everyone likes

Aimé Césaire, First Chancellor of the Euro-African Community ;)
 
It's not like France having Algeria helped very much in 1870, 1914 or 1940.

But

(A) France didn't do much to make the Algerians feel French in the way they did the Bretons, Occitans, Catalans, Alsatians, Corsicans, etc.
(B) France + Algeria in those periods was still smaller than Germany population-wise
(C) Algeria wasn't really developed all that much. Here Algeria would be a good underdeveloped economy within the borders of France (think of it like a French equivalent of the rapid industrialization of the US South in the 20th Century)
(D) Oil wasn't a factor then.
 
Between the Pied-Noirs, Harkis and their families, etc probably a quarter of the population was extremely Pro-French at the least at the time of independence. That France had won the military round of the conflict but lost the political also speaks of an ability to maintain the place.
 
I think to keep Algeria, you'd need the French Government to be willing to provide a lot of social services and education opportunities to the Algerian Population. If the French Government is paying for your healthcare, you'll be less inclined to revolt.

There'd probably need to be a lot of civil service opportunities.
 
Honestly ai think the best POD for France keeping Algeria would be a 1871 POD, where France didn’t just extend citizenship and voting rights to Algerians Jews, but to all Algerians.
 
Would it be worth it? I don’t know, they already have a base irl in Djibouti, the only Change would be that it would deny the American, Japanese and Chinese a base there, but i’m Sure Eritrea would be happy to give them some land.
Why would Eritrea cede any portion of its land to the French? Also, what time are we talking because Ethiopia could still be controlling Eritrea at this point.
 
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