France After World War I Loss

[wolf_brother]

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Germany doesn't have the manpower for this, even when you ignore that the Brits are going to be sending in the BEF. A 'quick victory' simply isn't realistic; it'd be likely that the Christmas Truce spreads/holds and all parties involved were cowed out of the war by revolution at home and on the front lines.

 

[Mikestone8]

I've also heard some info on how during 1917 when France was out of money and literally on the verge of defeat (this was prior to US entry), the French general staff had plans to overthrow the government, blame the socialists for surrender and continue the war in the event of a French surrender.

Can anyone confirm/deny any of this?

First I've heard of it, though it's not impossible some officers might have been tempted.

However, the only story I know for certain has the coup the other way round. According to Richard M Watt [1] when Caillaux was arrested in 1917, his papers included a plan called "Rubicon" by which the pro-left General Sarrail was to be appointed CinC, Paris occupied by picked troops from Caillaux' home district, the Chamber dissolved or "sent on an extended holiday", and Almareyda and others like him appointed to key government posts. This plan, of course, was made in anticipation of Caillaux's own appointment as Premier, which was frustrated when Poincare chose Clemenceau instead.

My own guess, though, given the state of morale at the time, is that either kind of coup would have led to the Army's rapid disintegration, and a near certain German victory.

[1] Dare Call It Treason Ch17, pp235-6

 

[Tank Cdr]

Britain would not allow the Germans to take over any of the littoral of Mediterranean North Africa. No way.

Your idea that the French could turn on Italy is intriguing--but wouldn't the Italians make an alliance with the Kaiser to prevent this from happening? Or with the British?

Would the Kaiser accept an alliance from Italy considering they broke the last one?

 

[Mikestone8]

Would the Kaiser accept an alliance from Italy considering they broke the last one?

Indeed, if the CPs won might they then declare war on Italy for her "treachery"?

 

[Mikestone8]

If it's not too far off topic, WI Clemenceau dies in the Summer/Autumn of 1917, ie shortly before his appointment as Premier?

Does this make Caillaux unavoidable, or will Clemenceau's followers unite around someone else who can be appointed in lieu? FWIW my tmpression has always been that The Tiger was somthing of a political "lone wolf" with a personal rather than an ideological following, and no natural heir-apparent, but I'd welcome the views of anyone more into French politics.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

If it's not too far off topic, WI Clemenceau dies in the Summer/Autumn of 1917, ie shortly before his appointment as Premier?

Does this make Caillaux unavoidable, or will Clemenceau's followers unite around someone else who can be appointed in lieu? FWIW my tmpression has always been that The Tiger was somthing of a political "lone wolf" with a personal rather than an ideological following, and no natural heir-apparent, but I'd welcome the views of anyone more into French politics.

It really depends on Poincare. As president he had the right to choose who to build a government and OTL he selected Clemenceau because he still wanted to fight. I'm personally not sure who would have been another reasonable choice at the time, as most histories don't mention alternative options. My gut says yes Caillaux was avoidable if Poincare was willing to keep fighting and could find a warm body to fill the role of 'revitalizer'. Clemanceau WAS willing to break some taboos by demonizing the socialists and anti-war protestors as German sympathizers, which at the time was brilliant, if immoral and somewhat illegal, and let him throw his political opponents, who wanted the war to stop, in jail, so that even if he were toppled, they would be out of the running for office.
Other than Clemanceau, I'm not sure who would have the guts and charisma to pull it off. Without such as 'remobilization' I doubt that any other man could have kept France in the war and prevented an implosion.