France 1802

What would happen if Napoleon where to die in late 1802? His cause of death not by an enemy soldier, but a random cause, this could be a heart attack, or a stroke. I find this to be a very wierd point in French history. France was at peace with most of Europe at this point (including the United Kingdom). The question would be who would sucseed him? Certainly not his son as he wasn't even an emporer at the time, he was a consul. Now this brings me to the what I would see.

I would guess a republic would be reestablished. However it would be a quite conservative government. The French people are tired of radicals and saw what it did to the country but saw the greatness of a nationalist France under Napoleon. I would guess only white land owning men would be able to vote. However I would not be surprised if the religious tolerence of Napoleon carried over into this new republic. I would guess in name this France would be Catholic, but in actually pretty religiously tolerant. Now let's assume that this new republic would have a strong leader who realize he most consolidate the new country and consolidate the country, staying out of foreign affairs for the most part for a couple decades, and focus on industrialization. However eventually I'm sure this France would become active in foreign affairs after Frenchificiation (cool word eh?) of the newly acquired areas and the start of industrialization. So once again I will ask the question, how would history from 1803 to 2000 be?

Map of France 1800 (surprisingly the exact same territories as in 1802)

Europe_1800.jpg
 
Most likely you'll see the rest of Europe jump in and declare war on weakened France, to try and overthrow the Revolutionary Republic and restore the Bourbons.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
I think the satellite Republics would be the initial source of conflict. Napoleon was President of the Italian Republic so that state is now rudderless and Austria and Sardinia will surely move into Northern Italy. Just look at what happened to the Cisalpine Republic while Napoleon was in Egypt. The Batavian Republic was highly unstable with conflicts among the Patriots between federalists and centralists and the House of Orange was still owed compensation for their loss (Fulda either had already been or was going to be set aside for them) while the British were reluctant to return all the colonies they seized so that state is like wise doomed to some kind of Anglo-German intervention. They could be the sparks for a greater war against France.

One other thing I see as interesting is that the HRE still exists and the states were currently negotiating the exact terms of the German mediatization to set compensate for the German princes who lost land west of the Rhine. IIRC the exact details were worked out after Amiens but didn't come into affect until 1803. So that situation is very much in flux but it would be hard to reverse the secularization even if new lands opened up west of the Rhine should France fall. But I think it would leave a more fragmented Germany since the mediatization really hadn't gone that far yet and was mostly just a secularization. But the German states could look to increase their compensation by rolling back the French border to something close to the 1789-1792 frontiers.
 
At this point there was no Italian republic under Napoleonic rule at this point. Also in 1802 there was a government with a constitution that would still exist even if one of the consuls where to die.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
At this point there was no Italian republic under Napoleonic rule at this point.

After the Treaty of Luneville Napoleon resurrected the Cisalpine Republic as the Italian Republic. He met a carefully selected group of deputies in Lyon in 1802, January I believe, and at 'their' request consented to become President of the Republic. Francesco Melzi acted as VP and ran the country day to day but Napoleon dictated the make up of the government and steered general government policy. More importantly the French army remained in the new Republic with the cost born by the government in Milan. It's unlikely the state could survive without strong French backing. A French defeat there could invite an invasion of France proper if Austria and/or the other powers sense weakness.
 
Could France survive being jumped again?

Definitely. In 1802, Napoleon's army is still the armies of the Republic and his generals are still the generals of the republic, who managed to salvage a pretty desperate situation against the first coalition. An alt thrid coalition war will become something nlike the first or second ones. The French armies may suffer some defeats but they will come back with more troops and better generals. Napoleon was not that unique among the republic generals except for his political ambitions.

However, the question of who is part of that coalition and when it attacks is critical. For that, the big question is when in 1802 does Napoleon dies? If early enough, the annexions which antagonised most of Europe will not occur and UK will not be hostile. In fact, it may be slavery is not reinstated, so No Saint-Domingue and No Louisiana purchase
 
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