François Louis, Prince of Conti King of the PLC

In the elections of 1697 François Louis, Prince of Conti received more votes than August of Saxony but Augustus hurried to the Commonwealth with a Saxon army, while Conti stayed in France for two months.

What if Prince Conti got to the PLC 1st and by whatever reason August decided not to enforce his claim?

Would the PLC get out of the War of the Holy League immediately or even sooner?

Would there be the Great Northern War?

What are other possible consequences?
 
I posted a thread about him before... https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...of-conti-fights-for-the-polish-throne.445152/

Now, i am mostly convinced that François' hypothetical decision to fight the Saxon elector for the Polish throne would result in a civil war.

I put as one of the premises that August is not pursuing his claim. :cool:

But let's go your way. Civil War in the PLC could be a protracted affair because neither side has an overwhelming advantage (Saxon troops proved to be of a questionable value during the GNW and, anyway, there are too few of them to achieve a fast victory).

Is PLC capable of fighting the Ottomans while also fighting a CV? I don't think so. Which means that the whole "Polish front" is falling apart and the Ottomans have free troops either to fight against the Austrians or just to advance against the PLC. Conti, as one of the kings (;)) would try to make a piece with them while August would not.

Then, if the mess continues for few years, perspective of the GNW seems less likely: without a presumably strong ally (Saxony) urging war with Sweden Peter may stick to his anti-Ottoman effort and almost definitely would not start war against Sweden in 1700.

This leaves Charles XII with the free hands and, after dealing with Denmark, he has a lot of options.
 
I put as one of the premises that August is not pursuing his claim. :cool:

But let's go your way. Civil War in the PLC could be a protracted affair because neither side has an overwhelming advantage (Saxon troops proved to be of a questionable value during the GNW and, anyway, there are too few of them to achieve a fast victory).

Is PLC capable of fighting the Ottomans while also fighting a CV? I don't think so. Which means that the whole "Polish front" is falling apart and the Ottomans have free troops either to fight against the Austrians or just to advance against the PLC. Conti, as one of the kings (;)) would try to make a piece with them while August would not.

Then, if the mess continues for few years, perspective of the GNW seems less likely: without a presumably strong ally (Saxony) urging war with Sweden Peter may stick to his anti-Ottoman effort and almost definitely would not start war against Sweden in 1700.

This leaves Charles XII with the free hands and, after dealing with Denmark, he has a lot of options.
I assumed that Augustus of Saxony would fight for his throne due to presumed support from the pro-Habsburg, anti-Turkish factions in the Sejm. Louis XIV, IIRC, slightly supported the Ottoman Empire as a means of countering the Habsburgs, who also held territories that the French desired (such as the southern Netherlands). In case François defeats Augustus, i could see Louis facing a diplomatic dilemma: support the Poles and alienate the Turks, or continue supporting the Turks and end up giving justifications for the opposition to François within the Sejm (which, combined with the liberum veto mechanism, could force François into a bad position).
 
I assumed that Augustus of Saxony would fight for his throne due to presumed support from the pro-Habsburg, anti-Turkish factions in the Sejm. Louis XIV, IIRC, slightly supported the Ottoman Empire as a means of countering the Habsburgs, who also held territories that the French desired (such as the southern Netherlands). In case François defeats Augustus, i could see Louis facing a diplomatic dilemma: support the Poles and alienate the Turks, or continue supporting the Turks and end up giving justifications for the opposition to François within the Sejm (which, combined with the liberum veto mechanism, could force François into a bad position).

As far as Louis is concerned, there is also an option of him acting as a moderator between the sides. As I understand, closer to the end war started losing its popularity in the PLC and NOT spending the money on a war which is not in their immediate interest always had an appeal in the Sejm. Anyway, 2 - 3 years of the civil war, no matter what is an outcome, would make Polish participation in the Great Ottoman War a more or less theoretical issue.

Then, if de Conti wins, an attack on the Swedish Livonia is extremely unlikely (August did it, IIRC, as Elector of Saxony) and this means serious changes on a much greater scale.
 
Ottomans were French allies but not French vassals, Louis XIV would not be able to convince them to give up Podolia, thus conflict would continue.
 
In the elections of 1697 François Louis, Prince of Conti received more votes than August of Saxony but Augustus hurried to the Commonwealth with a Saxon army, while Conti stayed in France for two months.

What if Prince Conti got to the PLC 1st and by whatever reason August decided not to enforce his claim?
We could just say that August dies or becomes severely ill so he is unable to pursuit his claim.

As for the Great Northern War, Polish magnates would rather want to get back the lands lost to Russia
 
The Great Northern War would definitely happen. Peter the Great despised Sweden and was desperate to bring about their fall so he could westernize Russia. However, Augustus would definitely pursue his claim as he had significant support from some of the Szlachta. Most likely a Civil War would ensue, in my opinion maybe even starting the Great Northern War sooner.
 
The Great Northern War would definitely happen. Peter the Great despised Sweden and was desperate to bring about their fall so he could westernize Russia. However, Augustus would definitely pursue his claim as he had significant support from some of the Szlachta. Most likely a Civil War would ensue, in my opinion maybe even starting the Great Northern War sooner.
Augustus does not pursue his claim by assumption, so his support among nobility matters little once Conti has the crown put on his head. As for the GNW, now August has no reason to participate, so would Russia and Denmark alone go for it? Civil war is another matter, especially if Francis? Louis II? looks like he thinks of absolutum dominium
 
It really all depends on how Francis (Louis II) would act as King. If he attempted to create an absolute monarchy like Augustus II did in his early reign, he would most likely quickly be ousted. If he abides by the Constitution and remains a figurehead he would probably reign until his death in 1709. He would probably support France in the War of Spanish Succession, and would side with Sweden in the Great Northern War if he even joined at all. The threat of Russia might force him to stay neutral if he doesn’t side with them.
 
The Great Northern War would definitely happen. Peter the Great despised Sweden and was desperate to bring about their fall so he could westernize Russia.

I like that part about "despicing": he borrowed considerably from their administrative model.

The same goes for "definitely". He was not a complete idiot to start war against Sweden without the strong allies. Neither was he going "to bring about their fall" as a preexisting plan: he was trying to make peace with Charles XII offering most of his conquests except for Ingria but Charles stuck with the uncompromising position and after his death this policy persisted until its hopelessness became quite clear. Actually, by the final peace Sweden got a considerable monetary compensation for the areas lost.

As far as "westernization" (Peter's style) was involved, Sweden was practically irrelevant.

However, Augustus would definitely pursue his claim as he had significant support from some of the Szlachta. Most likely a Civil War would ensue, in my opinion maybe even starting the Great Northern War sooner.

How exactly a civil war in the PLC would trigger the GNW? In OTL Charles got involved into the Polish affairs by August's attempt to take Riga. Surely, this would not take place with the CV going on.
 
How exactly a civil war in the PLC would trigger the GNW? In OTL Charles got involved into the Polish affairs by August's attempt to take Riga. Surely, this would not take place with the CV going on.[/QUOTE]

I based everything that I said on a biography of Peter the Great I read a while back. From what I’m thinking now it may not have been the most accurate. I’ll have to look into the subject a little more. I figured that with a CV, the Ottomans would try to take full advantage and take land. Peter the Great, not wanting to see a stronger Ottoman Empire would intervene. But that’s what I think, I’m definitely going to have to do more research on Peter the Great.
 
How exactly a civil war in the PLC would trigger the GNW? In OTL Charles got involved into the Polish affairs by August's attempt to take Riga. Surely, this would not take place with the CV going on.

I based everything that I said on a biography of Peter the Great I read a while back. From what I’m thinking now it may not have been the most accurate. I’ll have to look into the subject a little more. I figured that with a CV, the Ottomans would try to take full advantage and take land. Peter the Great, not wanting to see a stronger Ottoman Empire would intervene. But that’s what I think, I’m definitely going to have to do more research on Peter the Great.

There were quite a few biographies of Peter and, depending on time, place, author's personal views and other factors, you can find pretty much whatever you want.

With CV in the PLC the Ottomans would be in a better position than in OTL but this was a secondary front with the operations gradually being reduced to the raiding (the last battle, Battle of Podhajce in 1698, was just a repelled Tatar raid with only few thousands on each side). Their main fighting was against the Hapsburgs: after the Battle of Zenta (in 1697) they lost the whole Bosnia. In other words, they would not be able to take a real advantage of the mess in the PLC.

Tsardom of Moscow joined the Great Turkish War in 1686 (the Crimean campaigns of 1687 and 1689), well before Peter came to power and Peter contributed by launching two campaigns (1695, 1696) to take fortress of Azov (and Kerch, which he returned to the Ottomans). If anything, it would make sense for him to continue the effort on the southern flank where he already started building the navy rather than to abandon everything and start chasing a new goal on the Baltic Sea where Russian trade already existed and was well regulated by the Russian-Swedish agreements. Look at the territories and benefits that Catherine II got from her Ottoman campaigns and compare this with an effort needed for war with Sweden: 20 years of uninterrupted fighting with the military expenses reaching up to 90% of the budget, enormous human losses, etc.
 
Ottomans were French allies but not French vassals, Louis XIV would not be able to convince them to give up Podolia, thus conflict would continue.

It would unless there is a mutually acceptable compromise which can be triggered by 2 factors:

1st, the Ottomans would benefit from ability to use the extra troops against the Hapsburgs.

2nd, even the Ottomans did not manage to squeeze any serious money out of Podolia Eyalet: according to the Ottoman provincial budget of 1681, 13 million akçewere spent yearly in the eyalet, primarily for soldiers' pay. Of this amount, less than 3% was collected from Podolia itself, the rest was sent from the central treasury. And not that they kept too many soldiers there. As I understand, 6000 in Kamianets other garrisons, in Bar, Medzhybizh, Jazlivec, and Chortkiv, barely exceeded 100 soldiers each.
 
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