Fractured Indonesia

Zeldar155

Banned
WI: Indonesia fractured sometime after it's creation, say in the late 60's early 80's era? I was thinking about the largest islands becoming their own states and absorbing the smaller islands (Republic of Sumatra, Borneo etc.) Is this possible? How can it happen, and will it effect the Cold War?
 
WI: Indonesia fractured sometime after it's creation, say in the late 60's early 80's era? I was thinking about the largest islands becoming their own states and absorbing the smaller islands (Republic of Sumatra, Borneo etc.) Is this possible? How can it happen, and will it effect the Cold War?

After the fall of Suharto, it looked like Indonesia might splinter. The problem is that Java is significantly more developed and populated than the rest of the archipelago. If the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s is worse, and if the West decides not to help them in any way, its possible that a partially failed military coup leads to civil war in Indonesia, which emboldens various regional separatists. No one is going to recognize the various splinter states, but Indonesia may end up looking like a tropical Somalia (piracy!). The Malaysians will probably move into the Indonesian half of Borneo, while the Papuans, Australians and New Zealanders move on Timor and West Papua.
 

Zeldar155

Banned
After the fall of Suharto, it looked like Indonesia might splinter. The problem is that Java is significantly more developed and populated than the rest of the archipelago. If the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s is worse, and if the West decides not to help them in any way, its possible that a partially failed military coup leads to civil war in Indonesia, which emboldens various regional separatists. No one is going to recognize the various splinter states, but Indonesia may end up looking like a tropical Somalia (piracy!). The Malaysians will probably move into the Indonesian half of Borneo, while the Papuans, Australians and New Zealanders move on Timor and West Papua.

Any prominent generals or other officers you think of that might be qualified for such a coup or civil war?
 
Any prominent generals or other officers you think of that might be qualified for such a coup or civil war?

No one comes to mind, I'm in no way an expert on post-Cold War Indonesia. I would guess that the coup would probably come from a clique of younger officers, who would likely be extremely nationalistic. Maybe take a look at Indonesian nationalists of the period?

Another group that might have something to gain from all this would be Al-Qaeda; they would thrive on the instability that a collapsed Indonesia would bring. I can see training camps in Sumatra, and bombing attacks in Australia, Japan and Singapore. Might another 'USS Cole incident' happen in a Malaysian port, as American warships attempt to fight piracy on the region?
 

Zeldar155

Banned
No one comes to mind, I'm in no way an expert on post-Cold War Indonesia. I would guess that the coup would probably come from a clique of younger officers, who would likely be extremely nationalistic. Maybe take a look at Indonesian nationalists of the period?
Will do that.

Another group that might have something to gain from all this would be Al-Qaeda; they would thrive on the instability that a collapsed Indonesia would bring. I can see training camps in Sumatra, and bombing attacks in Australia, Japan and Singapore. Might another 'USS Cole incident' happen in a Malaysian port, as American warships attempt to fight piracy on the region?

Good idea, Indonesia in that world could turn into Afghanistan and Somalia in one hellish mix.
 

Zeldar155

Banned
How about Indonesia being deliberately fractured during it's creation much like India was?

Yes, but I don't think it was the Netherlands that organized the independance of Indonesia, didn't they revolt or something? Anyway your absolutely right, disagreements between the leaders of the revolt could lead to several states popping up.
 
Yes, but I don't think it was the Netherlands that organized the independance of Indonesia, didn't they revolt or something? Anyway your absolutely right, disagreements between the leaders of the revolt could lead to several states popping up.
Well, the Netherlands planned to at least keep the (southern) Maluku islands out of Indonesia. The same is true about Dutch New Guinea. Neither territory wanted to become Indonesian, but they were forced into it. Next to Aceh, those three areas are the only ones I am aware of thatactually have an independence movement (although in the case of both the Malukuns and New Guinea most proponents of independence now live in the Netherlands). Are there any other parts of Indonesia that actually want independence?
 
Well, the Netherlands planned to at least keep the (southern) Maluku islands out of Indonesia. The same is true about Dutch New Guinea. Neither territory wanted to become Indonesian, but they were forced into it. Next to Aceh, those three areas are the only ones I am aware of thatactually have an independence movement (although in the case of both the Malukuns and New Guinea most proponents of independence now live in the Netherlands). Are there any other parts of Indonesia that actually want independence?

Maybe not based on any sort of cultural or ethnic boundaries, but I can see a splintered Indonesia have local warlords (probably opportunistic former army officers) use some sort of local nationalism or at least grievances toward the Javanese centre as a justification for their rule. The region would become extremely balkanized extremely quickly.
 
During the Indonesian War of Independence (that was a very messy thing) the Dutch actually had proposed a very loose structure for independent Indonesia that the mainly Sumatran and (especially) Javanese nationalists rejected. If I recall correctly, some parts of Sulawesi also had centrifugal movements. The country in plenty of distinct groupings that can offer a springboard for a national constructions both on a geographcal and/or ethnolinguistic basis, all further messed up by religious divides in some eastern island groups. Java itself may split along the linguistic Sundanese/Javanese divide, that would leave Jakarta in a somewhat odd position, not to mention the Madurese-speaking area near Surabaya. In Sumatra at least Aceh is very likely to separate from the rest of the islam, possibly the Minang and maybe Batak land too. The rest could stay as independent "Sumatra", join Malaysia, or even split between these two entities. Not sure about what the Lampung area would do. Kalimantan has high chances to become a mess within the mess. If nothing viable emerges from the collapse of Indonesia, Malaysia will take control of the Strait.
Sulawesi would likely split into independent Minahasa, Makassar/Bugis area and Tanah Toraja at least. Bali and Lombok can be independent, the rest of Lesser Sunda probably another mess, with Australia probably running the show by proxy (that could be inviting for anti-western Islamic groups if they can find local hosts). Papua provinces may reunify with Papua-Niugini, and possibly some ot the easternmost islands will join too. Moluku is quite a wild card, probably will split into two states centered on Ternate and Ambon respectively, or stay loosely united in a rather unstable and probably loose union.
Timor Leste will probably go not so differently from OTL.
The whole thing has good chances to be nasty, bloody and confused.
However, widespread piracy in that area is not something that either local and global powers would tolerate for any long. China, India, the US, Australia and Japan, possibly Saudi Arabia and a lot of pissed off neighbours like the Philippines or Viet Nam will intervene rather quickly, or refrain to do so at their peril.
 
For the coup, I kinda recall that Gen. Wiranto was actually thought to be planning something similar at some time around 1998/99. I suppose these were false allegations though.
 
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