So next up is
Castilla y León as well as the regions of
La Rioja and
Cantabria - the northern half of Castilla, basically, or my homw turf, a land of dour, austere conservatives who get easily offended if you talk about flamenco with them.
Since the quota is made per province, there's going to be a few ones, excluding those for the one-seat provinces. Another thing, I will usually refer to 'comarca(s)' as 'county', as they are roughly the administrative unit equivalent, however a more accurate translation would be 'shire'. As in the Spanish version of Lord of the Rings, Bilbo Bolsón (Bilbo Baggins) lives in La Comarca (The Shire).
Ávila
Electorate: 139,218
Ávila is a thinly populated provinces without any major towns besides the capital - that is not big but has some kickass Roman era city walls. It is heavily conservative, although during the 1980s it did not vote for the AP/PP, but Adolfo Suárez's CDS, as Suárez was from a small town in Ávila. In any case, as I'm going to repeat
ad nauseam in this post, it's a safe seat for the PP.
People's Party: 50,931 (51.49)
PSOE: 19,277 (19.49)
Ciudadanos: 14,096 (14.25)
Majority:
31,654
Palencia
Electorate: 143,769
Much like Ávila, Palencia is another rural, empty area, although it is less right-wing, as an important segment of the population living in the south of the province (where the capital is) commute to Valladolid to work - so it includes civil servants, workers, middle class professionals, as a result it's less right-wing than the much more rural provinces of Segovia or Ávila, although it's still right-wing - it's Castilla y León.
People's Party: 45,965 (45.68)
PSOE: 24,751 (24.60)
Podemos: 15,077 (14.98)
Majority:
21,214
Segovia
Electorate: 120,823
I have little to say about Segovia - it's a very rural province dominated by an ancient capital city, that is just as conservative as the rest of the city, so a safe seat for the PP. That being said, its profile may change over time - ever since the AVE Madrid-Valladolid was opened, it has had a mid-way stop in Segovia, and seeing how real estate prices are skyhigh in and around Madrid, some people (students included) are starting to move to Segovia and around and then commute to Madrid by high-speed train (it takes about 30 minutes to get to Madrid's city centre at a relatively decent price).
People's Party: 40,172 (45.38)
PSOE: 19,014 (21.48)
Ciudadanos: 13,595 (15.36)
Majority:
21,158
Soria
Electorate: 76,814
Soria, like Teruel is Spain's Siberia, except its population density is even lower. Very rural, much for reasons that escape, the province's countryside is more left-wing than elsewhere in the region, although the capital is as conservative as any other Castillian provincial city. Should be a safe PP seat.
People's Party: 22,264 (44.87)
PSOE: 12,762 (25.72)
Podemos: 7,599 (15.32)
Majority:
9,502
Burgos
Total Electorate: 300,243
Quota: 100,081 (
±15%)
Alfoz burgalés-Ebro (
Burgos' Surroundings-Ebro [county])
Electorate: 106,198
This seat encompasses the entire county of Burgos, Burgos city's third district as well as the Merindades county and the Ebro county, home to Miranda de Ebro, Burgos' second largest city. It's the least right-wing seat in the province, which means the PP only has a 20 point advantage in a divided parties situation and an 11 point one in a bloc simulation result. Safe PP seat.
People's Party: 31,861 (41.35)
PSOE: 16,877 (21.91)
Podemos: 14,618 (18.97)
Majority:
14,984
Ciudad de Burgos (
City of Burgos)
Electorate: 104,661
The City of Burgos constituency is conservative, like all Castillian cities, the combination of an aged population, the social conservative milieu resulting from land-owning patterns in the region (small land-owners) and the lack of a significant industry means that this is yet another safe PP seat in a blue sea.
People's Party: 31,654 (41.19)
PSOE: 16,591 (22.06)
Podemos: 13,520 (17.60)
Majority:
14,703
Burgos meridional (
South Burgos)
Electorate: 89,384
Southern Burgos' seat is the most conservative in the province, by far. Its only major urban centre is Aranda de Duero. Its two arms basically serve to give it a small population boost as those two areas where almost empty population-wise (lots of municipalities with under a 100 people). However, this is probably the best part of Burgos, as it is where the Duero passes by, and hence you get wonderful red wine vineyards.
People's Party: 25,270 (47.59)
PSOE: 11,896 (22.41)
Ciudadanos: 10,013 (18.86)
Majority:
13,374
León
Total Electorate: 440,263
Quota: 110,066 (
±15%)
Ciudad de León (
City of Leon)
Electorate: 102,747
Not much to say about León. It's the fourth largest city in Castilla y León, and as I previously said, it's your typical Castillian provincial capital - conservative, bourgeois and old. Safe PP seat.
People's Party: 30,509 (41.40)
PSOE: 17,207 (23.35)
Podemos: 12,032 (16.33)
Majority:
13,302
El Bierzo
Electorate: 106,674
El Bierzo, formed by the county of the same name, of which the main city is Ponferrada is Castilla y León's sole left-leaning seat. The constituency contains one of Spain's main mining regions (since Roman times), and to some degree, it is similar to the mining areas across the Picos de Europa, in Asturias. This is a wrong-winner scenario, as the bloc vote gives a 10 point lead for the left, but its division guarantees that the PP wins, albeit by a much narrower majority than anywhere else in the region.
People's Party: 25,445 (34.34)
PSOE: 22,641 (30.56)
Podemos: 16,440 (22.19)
Majority:
2,804
León Noreste (
Northeast Leon [Province])
Electorate: 115,761
This constituency is basically formed by the various municipalities that surround León that serve as home for the younger, lower-middle and middle-classes that opted for lower house prices outside of the city, as well as a good chunk of the countryside, particularly in the north of the province, that, like their counterparts on the north side of the Picos de Europa, are left-leaning. And in between, your typical Castillian/Leonese conservative countryside. As a result, the constituency is not quite as pro-PP as others, but it still has a 10 point lead over the second-largest party.
People's Party: 30,334 (37.82)
PSOE: 21,463 (26.76)
Podemos: 14,501 (18.08)
Majority:
8,871
León Suroeste (
Leon Southwest [Province])
Electorate: 115,081
This constituency consists of the León's third largest city, Astorga (Asturica Augusta back in the day) and a lot of countryside, and so, without any of the mitigating factors you might find in the rest of the province, this is a very conservative seat.
People's Party: 26,435 (50.01)
PSOE: 12,370 (23.40)
Podemos: 6,511 (12.32)
Majority:
14,065
Salamanca
Total Electorate: 308,612
Quota: 102,871 (
±15%)
Ciudad de Salamanca (
City of Salamanca)
Electorate: 118,913
This constituency is solely formed by the city of Salamanca, the capital of the province of the same name. Salamanca is a university town with one of Spain's oldest and most famous universities, the Pontifical University of Salamanca, particularly in the humanities and law department. However, it is also an aged, conservative city, and so the large number of students (who possibly are still registered in their home province) is but a blip in the never-ending blue sea of Castilla y León.
People's Party: 39,627 (46.75)
PSOE: 17,019 (20.08)
Ciudadanos: 14,028 (16.55)
Majority:
22,608
Salamanca Central (
Central Salamanca [Province])
Electorate: 93,272
This constituency largely encompasses the county of Tierra de Campos, whose capital is Salamanca, minus the city itself. And then various other rural areas to meet the population quota. It contains the various suburbs of Salamanca itself but mostly just countryside. It's a safe PP seat.
People's Party: 22,132 (45.55)
PSOE: 9,440 (19.43)
Ciudadanos: 9,226 (18.99)
Majority:
12,692
Salamanca Sudoccidental (
Southwest Salamanca [Province])
Electorate: 96,427
This seat contains the rest of the province, that is largely just rural, without (as far as I recall) any significant urban centres or even large towns. As a result, it's very conservative seat, the safest one in the province for the PP.
People's Party: 35,913 (51.95)
PSOE: 16,793 (24.29)
Ciudadanos: 8,624 (12.47)
Majority:
19,120
Valladolid
Electorate: 433,056
Quota: 108,264 (
±15%)
Valladolid Afueras (
Valladolid [City] Outskirts)
Electorate: 114,115
This constituency is formed by the right bank of Valladolid, formed by towers housing middle-class neighbourhoods built in the 70s as well as the middle-class 'suburb' (not so much now) of Parquesol built in the 1990s and the various working class districts on the left bank of the Pisuerga river. These districts are all relatively aged however, and containing most of the city's sizeable gypsy population in areas like Barrio España or Pajarillos. In a bloc situation, it could be a winnable seat for the left, as the combined centre-right only edges the centre-left by points.
People's Party: 31,289 (36.77)
PSOE: 21,452 (25.21)
Podemos: 16,050 (18.86)
Majority:
9,837
Valladolid Centro (
Valladolid [City] Centre)
Electorate: 127,309
As the name indicates, this district mostly covers Valladolid's city centre districts, mostly built in or before the 19th century. The city centre alone was not enough, as despite the built up surface, not people live in the area, and so it also includes the Covaresa neighbourhood, home to a large chunk of the city's younger middle classes and civil servants working for the regional governments. This district also hosts the city's university as well as many of its students. Nevertheless, it's the more right-wing of the two seats, as it contains the city's most affluent areas.
People's Party: 42,796 (44.21)
PSOE: 20,342 (21.02)
Podemos: 15,435 (15.95)
Majority:
22,454
Valladolid Occidental (
Western Valladolid [Province])
Electorate: 94,332
This constituency is formed essentially by the emptier, western half of the Valladolid province. As the constituency lacks Valladolid's various commuter towns or and its two largest population centres, Tordesillas and Íscar, are not very big, it is much more rural than its eastern counterpart, and so it's safe PP seat.
People's Party: 29,443 (48.13)
PSOE: 14,861 (24.29)
Ciudadanos: 7,396 (12.09)
Majority:
14,582
Valladolid Oriental (
Eastern Valladolid [Province])
Electorate: 97,300
The eastern Valladolid province consist of the various municipalities surrounding Valladolid and home to young, middle-class families that commute daily to the city - places like Laguna de Duero, Arroyo de la Encomienda, Zaratán, Simancas and others, and also the two counties of Tierras de Peñafiel and Páramos de Esgueva, neither area is very populated however, and the constituency makes more sense from a geographical perspective than a 'community of interest' one. The fact that the constituency comprises the various metropolitan areas of Valladolid - middle class but young - is clearly reflected in the very good result for Ciudadanos.
People's Party: 28,498 (39.19)
PSOE: 15,125 (20.80)
Ciudadanos: 13,670 (18.80)
Majority:
13,373
Zamora
Electorate: 173,320
Quota: 86,660 (
±15%)
Alfoz zamorano (
Zamora's Surroundings)
Electorate: 88,000
This constituency is formed by the province's capital of Zamora, the province's third largest city - Toro - and four of the province's twelve counties. As such it's the less conservative of the two seats in the province, as Zamora the city leans slightly to the left of other provincial capitals. In any case, another blue horizon map.
People's Party: 26,969 (44.28)
PSOE: 14,589 (23.95)
Podemos: 10,033 (16.47)
Majority:
12,380
Zamora noroccidental (
Northwest Zamora [Province])
Electorate: 85,320
Not much to say about this seat. Very safe PP seat, composed of the rest of the province, including its second largest urban centre, Benavente.
People's Party: 25,586 (53.32)
PSOE: 11,456 (23.87)
Podemos: 5,370 (11.19)
Majority:
14,130
Cantabria
Electorate: 498,203
Quota: 99,641 (
±15%)
Área Metropolitana de Santander (
Santander's Metropolitan Area)
Electorate: 95,017
This constituency is formed by three municipalities in the immediate proximity of Santander (Camargo, Santa Cruz de Bezana and El Astillero) as well as the city's 5th and 8th districts. While El Astillero features an industrial economy, the constituency is not very left-inclined but it lacks the rural character of either western of eastern Cantabria or the very posh vibe of Santander city centre.
People's Party: 27,542 (39.83)
PSOE: 15,876 (22.96)
Podemos: 12,119 (17.53)
Majority:
11,666
Campo de Santander (
Santander County)
Electorate: 99,426
This constituency is formed by the rump Santander County, Torrelavega (Cantabria's second largest city) and several rural areas outside the Santander County to make numbers work. It's the least right-wing constituency of the region, being relatively close in the two-blocs scenario (at 5 pp.) due to the area's industrial profile, much unlike the rest of the region.
People's Party: 26,491 (36.21)
PSOE: 19,326 (26.42)
Podemos: 14,251 (19.48)
Majority:
7,165
Cantabria Occidental (
Western Cantabria)
Electorate: 112,912
This is the most rural of the constituencies of Cantabria, including very few urban centres, and as a result it's the second most conservative seat in the province, after Santander Centre. Safe PP seat.
People's Party: 26,388 (45.13)
PSOE: 13,772 (23.55)
Podemos: 9,604 (16.42)
Majority:
12,616
Cantabria Oriental (
Eastern Cantabria)
Electorate: 100,907
This seat encimposses a good chunk of the relatively famous coastal tourism towns in eastern Cantabria, quite often visited by Basques and people from other parts of Castilla y León, as well as a good chunk of rural Cantabria. Safe PP seat.
People's Party: 26,491 (42.13)
PSOE: 19,326 (23.28)
Podemos: 14,251 (18.42)
Majority:
13,519
Santander Centro (
Santander [City] Centre)
Electorate: 89,941
Albeit it might look odd from the outside, Santander City Centre is Cantabria's most conservative seat. Santander is a coastal city, but it was never a city built around the typical seaside industries, instead, since the 19th century, Santander has lived off attracting upper class tourism, and the city was often home to the royal family during the summer before 1923. All that, combined with an aged population and the exclusion of the port districts of the city from the constituency means we have a typical Castillian-like conservative city. Safe PP seat by a wide margin.
People's Party: 29,610 (45.52)
PSOE: 13,731 (21.11)
Podemos: 10,660 (16.39)
Majority:
15,879
La Rioja
Electorate: 247,670
Quota: 123,835 (
±15%)
La Rioja
Electorate: 137,088
This seat encompasses the entire province of La Rioja minus its capital, Logroño. Much like the rest of Castilla, it's pretty conservative, the Rioja red wines come from this area.
People's Party: 40,685 (44.81)
PSOE: 23,525 (25.91)
Podemos: 13,371 (14.73)
Majority:
17,160
Logroño
Electorate: 110,582
Logroño is a constituency encompassing the city of the same name. Typical Castillian city - old, conservative, wealthy - so no surprise it's a safe conservative seat, if less so than the more rural La Rioja seat.
People's Party: 33,023 (40.18)
PSOE: 18,485 (22.49)
Podemos: 15,401 (18.74)
Majority:
14,538
