Fourth protocol type plot in the 80's

The fourth protocol was meant to prohibit the non-conventional delivery of nuclear weapons i.e. by means other than being dropped from aircraft or carried on ballistic missiles. This included postal delivery services or being assembled in secret close to the target before being detonated.

In Frederick Forsyth's book he has the Soviets launching Plan Auroro

Plan Aurora involves smuggling the component parts of an atomic bomb into England - in contravention of the Fourth Protocol to the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty signed by all the superpowers which bans such activity - to explode near a USAF base a week before the general election. Evidence will be left that the explosion was an accidental detonation of an American weapon, leading to a wave of anti-Americanism, support for unilateral disarmament and for the only major party committed to disarmament, the Labour Party. The day after they win the election, the Hard Left will take over.


What would be the effect of the plot being successfully discovered before detonation - would it be broadcast to the world or would it, as in the book be classified (IIRC the argument given was that the leaders of the SU at the time were a known quantity - revealing what some of them had planned could bring in unknowns).

What would be the effect of the plot being successful (for the Soviets) and a detonation occuring?​
 
IIRC, each bomb's radioactive material has a 'signature' that, when compared to a database, will show which reactor the material was made at - or at least that it was not made at any of the reactors in that database. So, within a few days, it will have been proved that it was not a British, American, or French bomb. While the US might have a few reactors not on a database for this kind of situation, the plot is trying to make the UK think that the detonated nuke was one of the publicily known US bombs at the base, and there is no reason for the US to have top secret nukes hanging around in Britain. Focus will switch to the other nuclear-armed countries. Israel's not a suspect. South Africa would have to be insane. So, it's either the USSR, PRC, or terrorists armed by them. What happens next depends on who's in power in the UK and USA.
 
I just love PODs based on Frederik Forsyte and his fiction. The plot of the book requires that labour is HEAVILY infiltrated by hardcore communists loyal to Soviet willing to do some things USSR appriciate. Was it such a fraction?

I also belives that a plot against Germany would be more likely. The fact that they don't got the bomb is one good reason.

IIRC, each bomb's radioactive material has a 'signature' that, when compared to a database, will show which reactor the material was made at - or at least that it was not made at any of the reactors in that database. .

But would people belive that? And more important, wouldn't they still be sceptical to nuklear weapons?
 
I just love PODs based on Frederik Forsyte and his fiction. The plot of the book requires that labour is HEAVILY infiltrated by hardcore communists loyal to Soviet willing to do some things USSR appriciate. Was it such a fraction?

There was an influencial if minor (ie dominated certain areas but little else) faction known as the Militant Tendency in the early 1980's, however they were Trotskyites, I doubt they'd be up for aiding a plot by the "deformed worker's state" which involved the deaths of thousands of their fellow proles.

Even if they were, the Labour Party has been heavily dominated by left-of-centre middle class social-democrats of varying degrees since WWI. Nationalised Steel: Yes. Soviet client state: No.
 
If a nuclear weapon was detonated in the United Kingdom, the electoral process would be suspended immediately and I wouldn't be surprised if martial law was called whilst the investigation went on. There would also be immediate panic surrounding nuclear power stations in the UK and they might all be shut down.

I'm not sure if the hard-left would be able to take over the Labour Party as they did with the GLC. The militants have been booted out of the former Metropolitan Councils so people like Derek Hatton are somewhat displaced. Taking over the GLC was one thing, taking over the British Government is quite something else.

But say that Labout win the election and Kinnock is booted out within the week - the Queen would formally ask the leader of the Labour Party to form a government after Kinnock is removed. She could use her royal powers and dissolve Parliament to call for fresh elections or refuse to invite the new Labour Leader to Kiss Hands. Without this constitutional sanction, the army might well refuse to follow orders from the MOD (given as she is the head of the army) and not back the "hard-left" government. A military coup is therefore quite possible in this situation.
 
Haven't read the book, but did the film (saw it a year or two ago) concentrate on the labour / hard left part of the plot in such detail? I don't recall that bit... :confused:
 
I watched it in the pub :D

It's still great - the cheap stereotypes employed in the film like the racists on the tube train to make the film more palatable to the international market.

The plot of the film concentrated on the KGB machinations and the search for the spy rather than most of the background stuff.
 
One of the first books I read in the late 1980's I was about 14 at the time. It is one of the books I still re-read from time to time and am still hooked every time.
The film version isn't bad, and is a pretty good adpation of a very complex novel and plot. Forysth wrote the screen play himself. The Labour coup stuff is not present in the film version, and some of the locations are changed, for example in the book the greek radio transmitter is located in Chesterfield but in the film it's in Maldon Essex. The American base is also changed from the real life Bentwaters to the fictional Baywaters.
Micael caine gives a good peformance as John Preston, whilst Ian Richardson is superb as Irvine the head of MI6.
 
Top