Fourth expedition against Canudos also fails.

Since Vargas Llosa is receiving the Nobel Prize right now, I think it's the perfect moment to ask about this.

Is it actually feasible a failure of General Oscar's expedition against the conselheiristas? After all he faced the same logistical problems that previous expeditions and militarily they didn't as well as expected. Perhaps if marshall Machado Bittencourt doesn't get directly involved and doesn't send reinforcements they would be forced to end the siege of Canudos without a victory...

So, what would be the effect over brazilian politics if the fourth expedition fails, considering the impact this war had over the public opinion? I guess that it would mean harder times to those considered, rightly or wrongly, monarchists. But what kind of impacts could we see over further brazilian political developments? What would happen with Prudente de Morais? Is he overthrowed, killed...?

And, on the other hand, what are the limits of the conselheirista movement? Could it flame the whole Sertões? Could it survive after Antônio Conselheiro isdead if the government's fourth expedition fails?

Thanks.
 
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