Fourth Crusade gathers 33,500 men

Germaniac

Donor
Before the fourth crusade began the estimate of men to gather in Venice for the crusade was 33,500 and only 12,000 showed up. This left the Venetians without the money to repay for the ships constructed for the attack and without enough men to crew the ships without a huge investment by the Venetians themselves.

Lets say the Fourth Crusade gathers all 33,500 crusaders expected and sets sail for their original target, Cairo, and not to Constantinople. What does this mean for the Byzantines, the Crusades (Can the Crusaders take Cairo and most likely Alexandria), and the Venetians (the leaders of the Crusade)?
 
Regarding the Romans, if Constantinople is not sacked, they go through another decade or so of chaos before a competent Emperor siezes control and begins to put the Empire back together, in an immeasurably stronger position than the relatively succesful Michael VIII had to make do with. Of course, this, more powerful Empire, is quite likely to be a more tempting target to the Mongols; but can they breach Constantinople? Somehow, I doubt even they can.

Regarding the Crusaders, I think that such a large army does stand a reasonable chance of storming Egypt, especially if they get one or two lucky breaks. If they do, I'd expect the Venetians to demand Alexandria and Damietta as colonies, and set up the rest of Egypt as a Latin kingdom, which may or may not include parts of Palestine too.

All this will probably collapse when the Mongols roll in though.
 
Regarding the Romans, if Constantinople is not sacked, they go through another decade or so of chaos before a competent Emperor siezes control and begins to put the Empire back together, in an immeasurably stronger position than the relatively succesful Michael VIII had to make do with. Of course, this, more powerful Empire, is quite likely to be a more tempting target to the Mongols; but can they breach Constantinople? Somehow, I doubt even they can.

Regarding the Crusaders, I think that such a large army does stand a reasonable chance of storming Egypt, especially if they get one or two lucky breaks. If they do, I'd expect the Venetians to demand Alexandria and Damietta as colonies, and set up the rest of Egypt as a Latin kingdom, which may or may not include parts of Palestine too.

All this will probably collapse when the Mongols roll in though.

The Crusaders can probably take Egypt but can they hold it? suspect not
 
First of all, the whole crusading idea gets a breather and will probably live on for longer. Second, the Kingdom of Jerusalem, or more realistically, Kingdom of Acre, might actually live on for a bit longer.

The Eastern Romans will be way better off without losing Constantinople. I would think they could prevent the Ottomans from entering Europe, and if they do, they Ottomans might have problems with the Mameluks and the Timurids.

So, what I think will happen:

1. The Crusaders control the Delta and perhaps Cairo for twenty-thirty years before they are thrown out by the Mamelukes when they start their own Sultanate.

2. The Kingdom of Acre survives until 1370 or so, bolstered by a few crusades and expanding as the muslims have problems with the Mongols. If the Mameluk victory over the Mongols 1260, they will still unite Syria and Egypt and start reducing the crusader strongholds. They'll go for the Christian Kingdom of Egypt first, in the Delta, which buys the Kingdom of Acre a lot of time. The extra crusades will help too.

3. The East Romans will probably bounce back to at least regional power status if they retain Nicea, Smyrna, Constantinople and Thessaloniki and can probably keep the Ottomans in Asia. If the Romans hold the coasts, the Ottomans will not develop a navy and a crossing will be difficult. However, if the Ottomans remain an asian power, they will probably want Syria from the Mamelukes, and along the lines of my enemy's enemy is my friend, they will probably not help the Kingdom of Acre, as they want the Mamelukes to fight the Ottomans.

4. The big question is what happens if the Ottomans are still an Asian power when Timur Lenk comes riding?
 

Hecatee

Donor
This stronger, longer western presence in the near-east might also have an impact on the fate of the templar knights and thus on the history of the Kingdom of France. Also more numerous crusades might have an impact on the succession of various europeans families and thus the history of the HRE and other places. The question is, would one or some of these crusades go to Spain help to bring about an earlier stronger attempt at reconquista ?
 
Of course don't forget the un-fun POD--the effects of 21,500 additional males absent from Europe. Lords, soldiers, knights, probably a few peasants, mercenaries.
 
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