foreign relations of a surviving apartheid south africa

That's not really true and if there's one thing the ANC has done exceptionally well, is to frame itself as the only opposition to apartheid. By the 1970s, the ANC's internal resistance to apartheid was crushed. The vacuum was filled by organisations like the Black Consciousness Movement and people like Mangosuthu Buthelezi and Inkatha in KwaZulu-Natal, and even the white parliamentary liberal opposition. By the 1980s internal resistance had coalesced around the United Democratic Front (UDF) which had evolved without any assistance from the ANC.

The ANC did a fantastic job of doing a reverse takeover of the UDF once it was unbanned, and, at the same time, through propaganda and violence, setting itself up as the only legitimate opposition to apartheid.

The ANC emerging as this hegemonic opponent to aparheid was not inevitable, not by a longshot.

You're right, I should have more explicitly clarified that as "past a certain point" there was no replacing the ANC but thank you for sharing all of that, I legitimately didn't know about some of the organisations that you mentioned.

Though, regarding the Inkatha Freedom Party, my assessment of them could be entirely erroneous, but it seemed to me like the IFP always had a bit too much baggage to really be able to emerge as a national South African movement. Primarily because Buthelezi owed his position to the Apartheid regime and in many ways owed his entire power base to the existence of the bantustans and by extension Apartheid as a whole.

That said, I find the IFP a really fascinating part of South African history and wish I knew more about them.
 
Also, for a surviving Apartheid South Africa, perhaps the white government actually put a real effort into the homeland idea (which in reality was a farce). If they were to give each African ethnicity its own nation (and actual large swathes of decent instead of the worst land possible), Black Africans would be content?

I suggested something like that here. I think it would be the most plausible way to retain white control of South Africa.
 
I suggested something like that here. I think it would be the most plausible way to retain white control of South Africa.

Let's say SA decides to unilaterally implement this plan.

How will ANC and UN react?
I think it would still leave too many non-white people under white rule for either ANC or UN to accept this.

What kind of partition plan would leave little to no non-white people under white rule (assuming equal number of whites and non-whites would be resettled)?
 
What kind of partition plan would leave little to no non-white people under white rule (assuming equal number of whites and non-whites would be resettled)?

The number of non-white people resettled would be significantly larger than the number of white people resettled in that plan. Comparable to, say, the population exchanges in 1923 when both Greeks and Turks were resettled across the new borders of Greece and Turkey, but the number of Greeks that had to migrate was far higher than the number of Turks that had to migrate.
 
The number of non-white people resettled would be significantly larger than the number of white people resettled in that plan. Comparable to, say, the population exchanges in 1923 when both Greeks and Turks were resettled across the new borders of Greece and Turkey, but the number of Greeks that had to migrate was far higher than the number of Turks that had to migrate.

The even bigger problem is that there is inevitably going to be migration across these borders, particularly into the white state with its hunger for labourers.
 
The even bigger problem is that there is inevitably going to be migration across these borders, particularly into the white state with its hunger for labourers.
Well, it would be kinda stupid of SA to not have very strict immigration laws after they gave two thirds of their territory and resettled hundred thousands of whites, precisely to not have any blacks within their borders. I they'd need labourers, they'd probably settle on temporary workers from eastern Europe.
 
I suggested something like that here. I think it would be the most plausible way to retain white control of South Africa.

Depending on how many whites resettle, they'll still be a minority in the new state, with Coloureds outnumbering them. So, will Coloured people be given full rights in this putative state? They'd be silly not to.
 
Well, it would be kinda stupid of SA to not have very strict immigration laws after they gave two thirds of their territory and resettled hundred thousands of whites, precisely to not have any blacks within their borders. I they'd need labourers, they'd probably settle on temporary workers from eastern Europe.

They might encourage white immigration but there would be black guest workers. Also, this new state will have lots of coloured people, many of whom who would be working class, or prepared to work as labourers.
 
Well, it would be kinda stupid of SA to not have very strict immigration laws after they gave two thirds of their territory and resettled hundred thousands of whites, precisely to not have any blacks within their borders. I they'd need labourers, they'd probably settle on temporary workers from eastern Europe.
Tha Bantustans would take care of that to an extent. Just bus people in and out of them for certain work.

Depending on how many whites resettle, they'll still be a minority in the new state, with Coloureds outnumbering them. So, will Coloured people be given full rights in this putative state? They'd be silly not to.
Maaaaybe in Natal or the Cape if they are at a certain threshold, but it is likely they simply are better off than those classified as Bantus. I would be interested in seeing Afrikanners start treating the Griqua better in part out of thinking the Southern and Eastern Europeans aren't quite the Afrikanner 'type'. Actually wondering which European groups would do do best in the climate. Would be a lot of getting used to, but after the Nazis, Soviets, and various Fascist groups screwed things over in Europe they probably would be open to a change in climate, though I can see many leaking into southern Mozambique or perhaps Kenya and Tanzania. Actions that I don't think the Afrikanners would be against.

What do you guys think about Asians? I think the term was primarily used for Indians initially, and that East Asians later on we're treated differently due to the South Africans (I keep flip-flopping a lot on whether to call these guys South Africans or Afrikanners for this time period) wanting dpgood relations with their large economies. Anyways, any actual need for contract labor from Asia? Or they stick to Bantus (their word, not mine)?
 
Maaaaybe in Natal or the Cape if they are at a certain threshold, but it is likely they simply are better off than those classified as Bantus. I would be interested in seeing Afrikanners start treating the Griqua better in part out of thinking the Southern and Eastern Europeans aren't quite the Afrikanner 'type'. Actually wondering which European groups would do do best in the climate. Would be a lot of getting used to, but after the Nazis, Soviets, and various Fascist groups screwed things over in Europe they probably would be open to a change in climate, though I can see many leaking into southern Mozambique or perhaps Kenya and Tanzania. Actions that I don't think the Afrikanners would be against.

What do you guys think about Asians? I think the term was primarily used for Indians initially, and that East Asians later on we're treated differently due to the South Africans (I keep flip-flopping a lot on whether to call these guys South Africans or Afrikanners for this time period) wanting dpgood relations with their large economies. Anyways, any actual need for contract labor from Asia? Or they stick to Bantus (their word, not mine)?

You get hardly any coloureds in Natal, they are almost all in the Cape.

I'm not so sure that they will contnue to be deprived rights. Afrikaners and coloured people have much in common, a common language, religion, similar cultural norms, and it would be in the interests of whites to give coloured people full rights.

In OTL SA whites and coloureds generally vote for the same parties (although there are some interesting differences between coloured urban and rural voting patterns), and getting the coloureds onside, would make this new Cape-based state much more viable and stable.

Asians (who were mostly Indian) may well get full rights in this new republic or the Durban exclave.

Re: your grappling with the term 'Afrikaner' - Afrikaners make up about 60% of the white SA population. Most of the rest are descended from British settlers, with some Portuguese, Greeks, Jews, even some Lebanese, etc. thrown in for good measure.
 
Re: your grappling with the term 'Afrikaner' - Afrikaners make up about 60% of the white SA population. Most of the rest are descended from British settlers, with some Portuguese, Greeks, Jews, even some Lebanese, etc. thrown in for good measure.
I wasn't grappling with the term. I was grappling with whether I should say Afrikanner or South African when refering to government policies back in the apartheid era.
 
I wasn't grappling with the term. I was grappling with whether I should say Afrikanner or South African when refering to government policies back in the apartheid era.

South African is fine, because they were policies of the South African, not Afrikaner, government.
 
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