Foreign Policy of Iran, Without the Islamic Revolution

The Islamic Revolution of 1979 has as much a profound impact on the foreign policy of Iran as it did its domestic policy, with the political ascendency of the Shi'a ulema class implementing a foreign policy that decisively sought to expand Iran's geopolitical position through the use of (predominantly, though by no means exclusively, Shi'a composed) non- or semi-state actors and to in the process, undermine the hegemonic position the United States and the regional power of Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Despite being a radical departure from the pro-American, and generally sympathic to Israel and reactionary Arab monarchies, position of the Shah, even by 1975, ruptures were happening in that traditional foreign policy of Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi. Iran's previously pro-Saudi policy, previously used as a means by which to build a coalition in opposition to Nasser's pan-Arabism, was unravelling due to Iran and Saudi Arabia now rivaling which state would be the hegemonic power leading OPEC (cited, The Oil Kings), with Saudi Arabia taking the position of higher production/lower prices, which the U.S. energy policy was fully in favor of, as opposed to the policy of the Shah, to maintain oil prices as high as possible to continue his ambitious modernization-industrialization program. Coupled with this was the R&D program the Shah initiated with Israel as a means by which to acquire high-yield nuclear warheads, and supplying Israel with a decade of oil supply, referred to as Project Flower. Problem was that while the Israeli government had gone along with this materially generous deal, covertly they were sabatoging the project by providing Iran only with a "Little Boy"-type atomic bomb, as opposed to what was promised. While this deal would not be publically revealed until after the OTL revolution, if the Shah had remained in power, a major diplomatic rupture would seem more than likely.

On the main question, let us say that in 1978, before the events of Bloody Sunday marked the moment of no return for the Pahlavi Dynasty, the Shah had agreed to democratization reforms. This ultimately transformed the Majles (Iranian parliament) from a rubber stamp institution legitimizing Shahist autocracy, into a transparent and democratically-elected body representing the Iranian population. Starting from 1980 and going onwards, what would the foreign policy of this, non-clergy dominated, government of Iran be, and how would it response to OTL events occurring (Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, collapse of the Soviet Union, First and Second Intafadas, Invasion of Iraq, etc). Keep in mind, there is still a powerful, right-conservative oriented Islamic party represented in the Majles, but ideologically it is more similar to the moderates of OTL Iran (e.g. Hassan Rouhani).
 
I think in the long term there will be still cold war between Saudi and Iran as OTL, but I don't know for sure how the Sunni vs. Shi'a card being played in ITTL. OTL, that Sunni vs. Shi'a card are being played so intensely even faraway Indonesia could see the rising of anti-Shi'a sentiment, ever fueled by Saudi oil-money.
 
The Shah was very close to President Sadat, who won't be assassinated in this ATL, and I imagine this relationship will continue. I don't think Iraq will be invading this time but on the flip side Iran is building up its military and I can't be sure they won't take the offensive.
 
There's alot of ways this could go. Certainly, no Iranian government is going to ignore the invasion of Afghanistan.

No Iranian revolution really changes politics in the Middle East - there is no great success to give Islamism a push at this period (though it may have a success later on), there is no reaction AGAINST a Shia Islamist Republic arising...

Overall, I think this would make Iranian relations in the region more moderate. They may have a falling out with the Saudis - moderately, and a draw away from Israel - moderately, and move closer to Egypt and Pakistan (the latter due to the war in Afghanistan). But absent the Islamic Revolution, I don't see relations with Israel or Saudi Arabia getting nearly as bad in OTL. And relations with Iraq definitely wouldn't get as bad.

And no Iran-Iraq war means both countries are far more wealthy and prosperous.

fasquardon
 
the Shah had agreed to democratization reforms. This ultimately transformed the Majles (Iranian parliament) from a rubber stamp institution legitimizing Shahist autocracy, into a transparent and democratically-elected body representing the Iranian population.

The Shah? ????
His cancer metastasizes to his brain, causing a tumour that changes his whole personality?

Honestly, this is about as likely as Vladimir Putin turning modern Russia into a functional democracy.

----
In other words, not going to happen with the Shah, probably at all.

I could see a revolution happening that was much like OTL, but with a bit less Islamic emphasis, in particular, without Khomeini to act as a focus. Get the widespread basis of the Revolution more reflected in the resulting interim government, so it doesn't essentially become a theocratic 'not quite autocracy' as it did iOTL.
If the Revolution is not 100% successful, you MIGHT get a Pahlavi constitutional monarchy - but it would pretty much have to involve the then Shah abdicating infvaour of his son, or some such. IMO.

And if such a revolution happened, then the results would depend massively on things like the balance of power in the new Majlis.
 
Top