In a scenario where the KMT won the Chinese Civil War (let's assume for this scenario that there's a "PRC-in-Manchuria" as a "reverse Taiwan" of sorts), what would their foreign policy look like? How would this victorious Republic of China interact with the wider world? What would relations with other Asian countries (especially India and Japan) look like? Would they be firm US allies or try to form a "third bloc" of sorts?
Foreign Policy of a victorious KMT China
- Thread starter Whiteshore
- Start date
Probably divided. Some factions of the KMT would see the Soviets as liberators (assuming OTL happens until the end of WWII but the KMT wins anyway) but at the same time, it’s plainly obvious the Americans are the ones who beat the evil Japanese menace. So they would probably be a largely neutral figure on the UN.
The better question is, does a rump State in Manchuria hold up? We’re talking about a province right on the Korean border, and you can bet that the UN forces won’t be shy about curb-stomping the NK forces when the worst thin behind the line is Manchuria. The best NK can hope for is a rump State in the far north, and even then, it probably collapses and is quietly repatriated into the RoK, while the world mutters, “Can you believe those assholes?”
The better question is, does a rump State in Manchuria hold up? We’re talking about a province right on the Korean border, and you can bet that the UN forces won’t be shy about curb-stomping the NK forces when the worst thin behind the line is Manchuria. The best NK can hope for is a rump State in the far north, and even then, it probably collapses and is quietly repatriated into the RoK, while the world mutters, “Can you believe those assholes?”
The rump state in Manchuria is a truncated People's Republic of China (to provide a "reverse Taiwan").
I think this KMT China would probably join the Non-Aligned Movement officially but it could remain somewhat pro-US while she's rebuilding. A third bloc could be formed with some kind of Asian anti-colonialist bloc that's a bit similar to the European Economic Community which sees countries like China, Japan and South Korea dominating it but I'm not sure.
I understand that, but the location of Manchuria makes it vulnerable during the Korean War. What’s to stop MacArthur from toning down his rhetoric and pushing Truman to kick out the CCP in Manchuria? It’s a lot less dangerous than nuking Korea, for one.
Just like Onkel Willie's TL, it'll probably be occupied by the Soviets in order to prevent being invaded by KMT China and this could potentially begin ww3.
And to think it all starts with a dust-up in Korea. Well, if the Soviets get involved...ohhhhhh holy shit.
Bear in mind that the USSR’s nuclear capabilities still lagged behind the West’s, so MacArthur’s desire to nuke something probably comes up again, and if I had to guess, Truman shit-cans him just the same.
Continental Asia goes straight to hell when Vietnam gets involved, and it’s a massive resource-suck and population destruction for everyone while China does everything it can to stay the fuck out of the way.
KMT China has a very good chance of butterflying the OTL success of Southeast Asian Communism, I can’t see Chiang supplying the rebels with supplies as the PRC did
Well, there was a "Vietnamese Kuomintang" historically:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Việt_Nam_Quốc_Dân_Đảng
Fair point, but the locals won’t make it easy on anyone coming in there. Ultimately I see the West winning WWIII but it ends up being at least something of a Pyrrhic victory - the entire world will be weary, and rebuilding from three massive wars in 50 years will be next to impossible. Not to mention the environmental damage, especially to Asia - parts of the world will end up being a hellscape for decades to come, and Powers such as America and Britain would be very hesitant to give up their empires.
For that matter, if the USSR goes away, is the world unipolar or does someone else decide to take on the Americans,
He's unlikely to support communists but I can still see China supplying weapons depending on what factions within the KMT win out. There's still going to be a huge anti-imperialism movement within China no matter who wins. Chiang might see this as his opportunity to push back against the Europeans and win influence in SE Asia.
IIRC wasn't the KMT, or at least Chiang, pretty anti-French with regards to Indochina? I could perhaps see him turning a blind eye to supplies making their way into the hands of the more respectable Vietnamese rebel groups as a way of putting pressure on the French, and there's no guarantee of where those supplies would end up or which group come out on top. That's all assuming that the KMT has total control, individuals and/or crooked local officials taking bribes to smuggle supplies across the Sino-Indochina border is a possibility.
Well, there was a "Vietnamese Kuomintang" (the VNQDD) historically, so there's that.
I don't think the CCP would survive in Manchuria - Stalin was pretty pro-KMT during World War 2, even ordering Mao to support the KMT as much as possible. He didn't really believe the CCP could win the civil war. With the KMT actually winning, there's no reason for him to hold on to Manchuria, especially when he can gain a huge PR boost in China by returning it to the KMT.
With them having a long land border with the USSR as well as a Soviet backed rump PRC to worry about I can't see them as a neutral power. At least not at first.
More realistically I'd picture them as Allied with the US akin to OTLs ROK after the Civil War and eventually going through a milder version of OTLs Sino-Soviet split once they develop nuclear weapons and can MAD the USSR themselves. A milder version, because for all the Sino-Soviet split was supposedly about ideology, historic enmity towards Russia also played a huge role. There's no such counterpart towards the US.
More realistically I'd picture them as Allied with the US akin to OTLs ROK after the Civil War and eventually going through a milder version of OTLs Sino-Soviet split once they develop nuclear weapons and can MAD the USSR themselves. A milder version, because for all the Sino-Soviet split was supposedly about ideology, historic enmity towards Russia also played a huge role. There's no such counterpart towards the US.
This doesn't hold if the USSR gives them Manchuria back, though? Wouldn't it be feasible for them to be neutral if that was to occur?